RE: Money Management Stops

["Michel Amelinckx" <Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Thanks for helping me out here.  I guess my explanation was not very
understandable. And the example of the roulette table was even worse
actually it was WRONG because of course you still have the 0, so this was
WRONG.
What I just tried to say, like described here below is if you have a system
with 70% prob. (of course these statistics are as good as you test them) and
your system shows 4 or more LOSES IN A ROW. And because of this it is
deviating from your mean and thus the prob. of the next trade being correct
is higher. (There is of course a change that your system stops working at
that point)
Is this incorrect ?

Greetings

Mickey
B


> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Lionel Issen
> Sent: vrijdag 14 april 2000 5:05
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Money Management Stops
>
>
> Ug:
>
> You are correct.  Feller showed in his statistics books that,
> while it is
> rare, you can have a long string of heads (or tails). Each toss is
> independent of the other.  Even if a system is 75% correct,
> you can have a
> long string of losing trades. There are times when nothing
> seems to work and
> other times when anything seems to work.
> Lionel Issen
> lissen@xxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <ug@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 4:21 PM
> Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
>
>
> > Michel Amelinckx writes:
> >
> > > Same thing with roulette, they hate me in the casinos because if I
> > > play roulette I play on red and black. I wait till red
> (black)past 3
> > > or 4 times in a row and then play on the other colour. And the
> > > longer you wait, like 5 or 6 times on red (black) the higher the
> > > probability the next will be the other colour. Although 6
> times the
> > > same colour is very rare. And this they don't like in casinos.
> >
> >
> >
> > If a coin tossed comes up heads 4 times in a row, what's
> the chance it
> > will be tails next time?
> >
> >
> >
> > If a system is 50% wins, and you lose 4 in a row, what't
> the chance of
> > a winning trade next time?
> >
> >
> > Given that each trade is independent of the others, which I
> THINK you
> > are in agreement with, the above 2 are the same situation, so why
> > would you say one is 50% and one is 99?
>
>