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Ug:
You are correct. Feller showed in his statistics books that, while it is
rare, you can have a long string of heads (or tails). Each toss is
independent of the other. Even if a system is 75% correct, you can have a
long string of losing trades. There are times when nothing seems to work and
other times when anything seems to work.
Lionel Issen
lissen@xxxxxxxxx
----- Original Message -----
From: <ug@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 4:21 PM
Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
> Michel Amelinckx writes:
>
> > Same thing with roulette, they hate me in the casinos because if I
> > play roulette I play on red and black. I wait till red (black)past 3
> > or 4 times in a row and then play on the other colour. And the
> > longer you wait, like 5 or 6 times on red (black) the higher the
> > probability the next will be the other colour. Although 6 times the
> > same colour is very rare. And this they don't like in casinos.
>
>
>
> If a coin tossed comes up heads 4 times in a row, what's the chance it
> will be tails next time?
>
>
>
> If a system is 50% wins, and you lose 4 in a row, what't the chance of
> a winning trade next time?
>
>
> Given that each trade is independent of the others, which I THINK you
> are in agreement with, the above 2 are the same situation, so why
> would you say one is 50% and one is 99?
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