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Hi Tomasz,
I am not going to try and pretend that I understand all the
intricacies of either our situation a decade ago, or the American
situation now. What I do understand is human nature when the twin
stimuli of fear and greed show up. That's how I survive, even
thrive.
That said, some obvious similarities:
- tons of bad private debt
- tons of government debt
- banks under pressure because assets that made up their capital
bases were either priced down or no price discovery was possible
- it seems a real estate bubble was the big culprit in both cases; at
one time in 1989 the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo had a
valuation greater than the entire State of California, which is
absurd to say the least, because no one would ever make that swap,
but the valuation implied that Californians would, or should, have
been willing to do it, even tossing in some cash along with their
state
Some obvious differences:
- Japan's private debt was mostly corporate; individuals for the most
part were, and are, quite solvent : America seems to have a problem
with personal debt, leading in at least some measure to the problem
unfolding right now
- Japan's workforce was, and is, declining : America's continues to
grow, so America has an easier time servicing its debt
- America seems much more willing to try and get this mess off the
books than Japan was; we tried to pretend there was no mess, and
could for a while, because we were not dependent on external
financing; it was only when our large banks began to feel the threat
of extreme premiums or even exclusion from international banking that
we finally wrote the bad stuff off and injected public money into the
banks so they could continue to function
Two thoughts right now:
1) God help us if the US does not implement a bailout, and pretty
fast.
2) That fence the US has been building along the border with Mexico
may end up being used to keep Americans *in* rather than to keep
Mexicans out. ^_^
Yuki
Monday, September 22, 2008, 9:23:05 PM, you wrote:
TJ> Yuki,
TJ> On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would
TJ> love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any)
TJ> between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now.
TJ> In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned earlier in this thread
TJ> http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
TJ> we can find this:
TJ> "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...]
TJ> Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides deflation,
TJ> including massive financial problems in the banking and
TJ> corporate sectors and a large overhang of government debt.
TJ> private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the
TJ> monetary policies that have been tried in Japan,
TJ> even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese
TJ> policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies
TJ> [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these
TJ> problems, at least not to anything like the same degree"
TJ> Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in 2008.
TJ> Best regards,
TJ> Tomasz Janeczko
TJ> amibroker.com
TJ> ----- Original Message -----
TJ> From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
TJ> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
TJ> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM
TJ> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
>> Hello,
>>
>> In his post Patrick just added single sentence to
>> make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox.
>> I can not see anything wrong with that.
>> I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning
>> that somebody posted something via private channel,
>> and nobody complained.
>> Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere?
>> Thank you in advance and have a good day.
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Tomasz Janeczko
>> amibroker.com
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: "vlanschot" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM
>> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
>>
>>
>>> Hi vlanschot,
>>>
>>> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several orders of
>>> magnitude.
>>>
>>> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last week, nor this
>>> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side of my
>>> trades.
>>>
>>> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you sent a
>>> private email -- on a public list.
>>>
>>> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before you were, and
>>> I don't think it has changed that much.
>>>
>>> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't attempt to get
>>> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership here is
>>> probably not the least bit interested to know that you sent an email
>>> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list owner), the
>>> contents of which they will probably never share.
>>>
>>> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I find it
>>> strange nonetheless.
>>>
>>> Yuki
>>>
>>> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote:
>>>
>>> v> Hi Yuki,
>>>
>>> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only imagine how you
>>> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I increasingly feel
>>> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of its way of
>>> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe there have been
>>> v> plenty of other references in this group to private emails, and
>>> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a reaction.
>>>
>>> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding references which I
>>> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can calm down now.
>>>
>>> v> PS
>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion.
>>>>>
>>>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly illuminative for the
>>>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list that you sent
>>>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are not in
>>>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get subscribers to your
>>>>> off list messages?
>>>>>
>>>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm beating my
>>>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent.
>>>>>
>>>>> Phooey.
>>>>>
>>>>> Yuki
>>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------
>>>
>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>>
>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>>
>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>>
>>> For other support material please check also:
>>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>> ------------------------------------
>>
>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>
>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>
>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>
>> For other support material please check also:
>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
------------------------------------
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