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Yuki,
Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. That was very interesting read.
Best regards,
Tomasz Janeczko
amibroker.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Tomasz Janeczko" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 23, 2008 2:13 AM
Subject: Re: US now and Japan in 90's, was: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
> Hi Tomasz,
>
> I am not going to try and pretend that I understand all the
> intricacies of either our situation a decade ago, or the American
> situation now. What I do understand is human nature when the twin
> stimuli of fear and greed show up. That's how I survive, even
> thrive.
>
> That said, some obvious similarities:
>
> - tons of bad private debt
>
> - tons of government debt
>
> - banks under pressure because assets that made up their capital
> bases were either priced down or no price discovery was possible
>
> - it seems a real estate bubble was the big culprit in both cases; at
> one time in 1989 the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo had a
> valuation greater than the entire State of California, which is
> absurd to say the least, because no one would ever make that swap,
> but the valuation implied that Californians would, or should, have
> been willing to do it, even tossing in some cash along with their
> state
>
> Some obvious differences:
>
> - Japan's private debt was mostly corporate; individuals for the most
> part were, and are, quite solvent : America seems to have a problem
> with personal debt, leading in at least some measure to the problem
> unfolding right now
>
> - Japan's workforce was, and is, declining : America's continues to
> grow, so America has an easier time servicing its debt
>
> - America seems much more willing to try and get this mess off the
> books than Japan was; we tried to pretend there was no mess, and
> could for a while, because we were not dependent on external
> financing; it was only when our large banks began to feel the threat
> of extreme premiums or even exclusion from international banking that
> we finally wrote the bad stuff off and injected public money into the
> banks so they could continue to function
>
> Two thoughts right now:
>
> 1) God help us if the US does not implement a bailout, and pretty
> fast.
>
> 2) That fence the US has been building along the border with Mexico
> may end up being used to keep Americans *in* rather than to keep
> Mexicans out. ^_^
>
> Yuki
>
> Monday, September 22, 2008, 9:23:05 PM, you wrote:
>
> TJ> Yuki,
>
> TJ> On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would
> TJ> love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any)
> TJ> between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now.
>
> TJ> In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned earlier in this thread
> TJ> http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
> TJ> we can find this:
> TJ> "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...]
> TJ> Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides deflation,
> TJ> including massive financial problems in the banking and
> TJ> corporate sectors and a large overhang of government debt.
> TJ> private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the
> TJ> monetary policies that have been tried in Japan,
> TJ> even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese
> TJ> policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies
> TJ> [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these
> TJ> problems, at least not to anything like the same degree"
>
> TJ> Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in 2008.
>
> TJ> Best regards,
> TJ> Tomasz Janeczko
> TJ> amibroker.com
> TJ> ----- Original Message -----
> TJ> From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> TJ> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> TJ> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM
> TJ> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
>
>
>>> Hello,
>>>
>>> In his post Patrick just added single sentence to
>>> make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox.
>>> I can not see anything wrong with that.
>>> I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning
>>> that somebody posted something via private channel,
>>> and nobody complained.
>>> Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere?
>>> Thank you in advance and have a good day.
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>> Tomasz Janeczko
>>> amibroker.com
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: "vlanschot" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
>>>
>>>
>>>> Hi vlanschot,
>>>>
>>>> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several orders of
>>>> magnitude.
>>>>
>>>> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last week, nor this
>>>> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side of my
>>>> trades.
>>>>
>>>> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you sent a
>>>> private email -- on a public list.
>>>>
>>>> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before you were, and
>>>> I don't think it has changed that much.
>>>>
>>>> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't attempt to get
>>>> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership here is
>>>> probably not the least bit interested to know that you sent an email
>>>> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list owner), the
>>>> contents of which they will probably never share.
>>>>
>>>> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I find it
>>>> strange nonetheless.
>>>>
>>>> Yuki
>>>>
>>>> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote:
>>>>
>>>> v> Hi Yuki,
>>>>
>>>> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only imagine how you
>>>> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I increasingly feel
>>>> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of its way of
>>>> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe there have been
>>>> v> plenty of other references in this group to private emails, and
>>>> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a reaction.
>>>>
>>>> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding references which I
>>>> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can calm down now.
>>>>
>>>> v> PS
>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly illuminative for the
>>>>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list that you sent
>>>>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are not in
>>>>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get subscribers to your
>>>>>> off list messages?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm beating my
>>>>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Phooey.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Yuki
>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>>>
>>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>>>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>>>
>>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>>>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>>>
>>>> For other support material please check also:
>>>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>>>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------
>>>
>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>>
>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>>
>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>>
>>> For other support material please check also:
>>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>>
>>>
>>>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>
> For other support material please check also:
> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
------------------------------------
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