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May you live in interesting times (old Chinese curse?)
If we haven't learnt something about trading, from the Freddie,
Fannie and Friends affair, we never will.
Depending which color shades you wear (I'm speaking as a freelance
trader) - some early speculation:
- meetings, between politicians and institutional king makers, will
continue behind closed doors (making or breaking fortunes while we
sleep or take the kids to weekend activities)
- short selling bans are not all created equal, of equal length, or
equally distributed (Aus == total ban justified because of the
possibility that a flood of short money looking for a home will sink
the ship) ... they vary from country to country.
- hedge funds are the bad guys (always reassuring to find the man in
the black hat)
- will politicians ever get it right?
- agree with Tomasz that backtested systems, in some cases, might end
up being fit only for the rubbish bin (only if the 'ban' sticks)
- they are beating the grass to drive out the snakes (the drums will
die down soon) .... are they in the right patch?
- let's not over react. Get the facts first. What opportunities still
exist for short selling and how can we play them (paper/TV talk on
this subject is about as entertaining/real as BigBrother)?
- IMO the markets have changed in recent times (globalism and the
power of speculators) - look out for Global market regulations.
- speculators took control of the markets in the dotcom bubble (for
the first time in history?).... once we have tasted forbidden fruit
there is no turning back.
- speculators (some of us?) are still around, cashed up and
knowledgeable and ready to play (they didn't lose money in the last 6
months they piled it on)... they are not going to go away and hide
under the bed.
- speculators will move to new playgrounds (already the first day of
trade this week showed high volatility in stocks continue, record
breaking moves in oil and gold)
- a trader can still leverage a lot of stock, buy and then sell.
When they sell is the volatility produced any different cf to holding
the stock and shorting OR just straight out shorting?..... so market
mechanisms still exist for speculators to 'move the markets' to some
extent.
- will the institutions that play on the short side take this lying
down (exchanges, brokers, funds) e.g. will the options industry OR
the SSF exchange fold up their tents (if all shorting is banned)?
- already, in Australia, the monopolistic ASX suffered a > 1% fall in
the first day of new trading, (ex the short sell ban) - punters
believe the profits of listed exchanges, without the turnover created
by short selling, will be slashed.
- fair playing field? Aus regulators decided to ban all short selling
in Aus indefinitely, following a weekend ring around with their
international mates ..... come Monday morning they had to hastily
cancel the first hour of trade (no headline announcements there)
after the instutionals quickly got on the phone to the Aus regulators
to add a few quick patches to suit their needs etc etc
- speculators might move over to pounding other non-financial targets
(GM)
- outside the US punters can do naughty things like spread
betting ... so far some of the big players are 'regulated' and
compliant e.g. IG Markets .... is it possible 'dealers' like this
will move outside of regulation and develop exotic shorting
alternative (businesses always develop products to meet demand)?
Watch this space?
Those who made a killing on Gold in the last 6 months - was it good
luck or good management? ... remember what goes up fast (possessing
the quality of momentum) can also come down fast.
Did anyone using mechanical/AT systems take a haircut based
on 'unprogrammable contextual moves'?
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
wrote:
>
> Yuki,
>
> On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would
> love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any)
> between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now.
>
> In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned earlier in
this thread
>
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default
.htm
> we can find this:
> "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...]
> Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides
deflation,
> including massive financial problems in the banking and corporate
sectors and a large overhang of government debt.
> private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the
monetary policies that have been tried in Japan,
> even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese
policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies
> [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these problems,
at least not to anything like the same degree"
>
> Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in 2008.
>
> Best regards,
> Tomasz Janeczko
> amibroker.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
>
>
> > Hello,
> >
> > In his post Patrick just added single sentence to
> > make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox.
> > I can not see anything wrong with that.
> > I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning
> > that somebody posted something via private channel,
> > and nobody complained.
> > Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere?
> > Thank you in advance and have a good day.
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxx>
> > To: "vlanschot" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM
> > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
> >
> >
> >> Hi vlanschot,
> >>
> >> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several orders of
> >> magnitude.
> >>
> >> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last week, nor
this
> >> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side of my
> >> trades.
> >>
> >> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you sent a
> >> private email -- on a public list.
> >>
> >> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before you
were, and
> >> I don't think it has changed that much.
> >>
> >> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't attempt to
get
> >> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership here is
> >> probably not the least bit interested to know that you sent an
email
> >> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list owner), the
> >> contents of which they will probably never share.
> >>
> >> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I find it
> >> strange nonetheless.
> >>
> >> Yuki
> >>
> >> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote:
> >>
> >> v> Hi Yuki,
> >>
> >> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only imagine how
you
> >> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I
increasingly feel
> >> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of its way
of
> >> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe there
have been
> >> v> plenty of other references in this group to private emails,
and
> >> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a
reaction.
> >>
> >> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding references
which I
> >> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can calm
down now.
> >>
> >> v> PS
> >>
> >>>>
> >>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion.
> >>>>
> >>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly illuminative
for the
> >>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list that you
sent
> >>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are not in
> >>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get subscribers to
your
> >>>> off list messages?
> >>>>
> >>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm beating
my
> >>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent.
> >>>>
> >>>> Phooey.
> >>>>
> >>>> Yuki
> >>>>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ------------------------------------
> >>
> >> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >>
> >> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> >> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >>
> >> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> >> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >>
> >> For other support material please check also:
> >> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >> Yahoo! Groups Links
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
------------------------------------
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