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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> Concluding my speculative piece on the state of the markets and
> the 'short selling ban'.
>
>
> Summary:
>
> The runction on world markets started from the, still influential,
US
> market.
>
> The fundamental causes are:
>
> - US private and corporate debt is at record levels and going up
the
> chart exponentially. Eventually there has to be a day of reckoning.
> Living beyond ones means is a disease of modern culture and the
> dominant generations.
>
> - the balance sheets of some of Americas top 500 were/are pretty
> parlous, especially the financials.
>
> Institutions are selling them down to re-establish their
fundamental
> value (price discovery as they say)... it takes a while and the
> markets tend to overshoot the mark.... better late than never I
> suppose.
>
> The US upsets flowed over to others, especially Europe, because
they
> are so financially/mentally/emotionally intertwined.
>
> Small out of the way economies, like Australia, were only affected
to
> a limited extent but their financials took the hit as well.
>
> The story, bandied around by the coalition of the financially
> willing, is that the markets were victimised by shortsellers/hedge
> funds but this is a beat up of WMD proportions ... all for the
> benefit of the public.
>
> 'World leaders' are meeting in NewYork even as we speak... I would
> love to be a fly on the wall to see what ends they have in mind.
>
> Institutions with healthier balance sheets are now looking for
> bargains.
>
> The ban on 'short selling' is a banNOT in the US but looking
serious
> elsewhere....perhaps the US doesn't really want a ban OR is it a
nice
> idea that is too difficult to implement OR are they softening us
for
> draconian restrictions in the future?
>
> Volatility in the markets continued this week (post ban).
>
> Volatility is not caused by short selling etc as such - it is an
> indicator of market sentiment... the markets are spooked and rather
> like a child who has been woken by the sight of a ghost, they will
> not go back to sleep, in that bed again, without a good deal of
> soothing.
>
> The markets have very short term memories though.
>
> Gold is a market sentiment indicator and when sentiment settles
down
> so will gold.
>
> 100 seems to be the unofficially agreed new floor for oil????
> If so economies are in for a slow wind-down.
>
>
> Random Evidence:
>
> 1) Australia - market controlled by hedgers/short sellers?
>
> - Aus shorting is limited to under 500 stocks/etf's
> - only 10% of total shares can be shorted (for approved instruments)
> - foreign money can't just flood in and short Aus (it takes time to
> move money around/open accounts etc). Regulators can cut off
foreign
> capital inflow anyway.
> - here is a link to current Aus shorts (cumulative).
> Post the Sept19 shorts ban the list looks much the same as it did a
> week earlier... shorts are still in place so they were long term
> hedging OR a part of normal market activities and NOT the result of
> short term speculation.
>
> %'s of shorts relative to shorting limits and total shares are very
> low.
>
> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
>
> 2) Australia - exposure of Aus banks is limited and factored in
> already!
>
> Here is a current article discussing exposure and the fact that Aus
> banks have already raised capital ratios well above requirements.
>
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/anz-doubles-capital-raising-
> 20080904-49za.html
>
> ANZ and NAB are deemed to be the banks with most exposuure and CBA,
> WBC with the least... their share prices over the last few months
> reflect this.
>
> However it is old news.
>
> Link to official market announcements page > enter ANZ > search and
> refer to price sensitive PDF's
> 16/9/2008 Lehman exposure is minor and 28/07/2008 trading update
> (plus earlier price sensitive releases) that discuss
> exposure/provisions, cash earnings etc and the fact that forward
divs
> will be maintained at a forward yield of around 7-8% relative to
> current stock price.... the Aus public have already paid for this
via
> higher margins and fees etc
>
> 3) US - volatility continues despite short bans.
>
> GM was heavily sold down yesterday 23/9/2008 by institutions??? and
> because of the auto balance sheets ... nothing to do with
> speculators???.... price was volatile but volume was half 3 month
ave
> vol == lack of buyers rather than an excess of naked sellers????
>
> Chrysler proits tumble
>
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122217870530867245.html?
> mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
>
> 4) speculators move to other shorting mechanisms to work around
> financial short bans
>
> link to current CBOE put/call ratio and vols page >> take the top
link
>
> http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx
>
> put/call ratio late last week was extremely high.
> vols on 16-19th inclusive were top 4/5 vols ever.
>
> 5) the big boys (or girls) are looking for bargains
>
> examples:
>
> buffet buys financial survivors
>
> http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/23/buffett-goldman-banks-markets-
> cx_mm_0923buffett.html?partner=yahootix
>
> Euro banks cash up to buy financials
>
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122220793000968729.html?
> mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
>
> Once again - copy broken links to Word - use backspace to put them
> back together and they are good to go.
>
> Good trading.
>
> brian_z
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> > Link to a summary of international short selling regs:
> >
> >
>
http://www.asx.com.au/about/pdf/20080923_update_on_asic_response_to_sh
> > ort_selling.pdf
> >
> > Articles laying out OneChicago's position are worth a look:
> >
> > http://www.onechicago.com/
> >
> > Interesting that the US started it all and UK/Australia ended up
> with
> > the most restrictive regs.
> >
> > UK is talking very tough.
> > Aus is writing new permanent legislation (to be announced).
> > USA is prevaricating?
> >
> > (to put broken link back together copy to Notepad and use
backspace)
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> > >
> > > May you live in interesting times (old Chinese curse?)
> > >
> > > If we haven't learnt something about trading, from the Freddie,
> > > Fannie and Friends affair, we never will.
> > >
> > > Depending which color shades you wear (I'm speaking as a
> freelance
> > > trader) - some early speculation:
> > >
> > > - meetings, between politicians and institutional king makers,
> will
> > > continue behind closed doors (making or breaking fortunes while
> we
> > > sleep or take the kids to weekend activities)
> > >
> > > - short selling bans are not all created equal, of equal
length,
> > or
> > > equally distributed (Aus == total ban justified because of the
> > > possibility that a flood of short money looking for a home will
> > sink
> > > the ship) ... they vary from country to country.
> > >
> > > - hedge funds are the bad guys (always reassuring to find the
man
> > in
> > > the black hat)
> > >
> > > - will politicians ever get it right?
> > >
> > > - agree with Tomasz that backtested systems, in some cases,
might
> > end
> > > up being fit only for the rubbish bin (only if the 'ban' sticks)
> > >
> > > - they are beating the grass to drive out the snakes (the drums
> > will
> > > die down soon) .... are they in the right patch?
> > >
> > > - let's not over react. Get the facts first. What opportunities
> > still
> > > exist for short selling and how can we play them (paper/TV talk
> on
> > > this subject is about as entertaining/real as BigBrother)?
> > >
> > > - IMO the markets have changed in recent times (globalism and
the
> > > power of speculators) - look out for Global market regulations.
> > >
> > > - speculators took control of the markets in the dotcom bubble
> (for
> > > the first time in history?).... once we have tasted forbidden
> fruit
> > > there is no turning back.
> > >
> > > - speculators (some of us?) are still around, cashed up and
> > > knowledgeable and ready to play (they didn't lose money in the
> last
> > 6
> > > months they piled it on)... they are not going to go away and
> hide
> > > under the bed.
> > >
> > > - speculators will move to new playgrounds (already the first
day
> > of
> > > trade this week showed high volatility in stocks continue,
record
> > > breaking moves in oil and gold)
> > >
> > > - a trader can still leverage a lot of stock, buy and then sell.
> > > When they sell is the volatility produced any different cf to
> > holding
> > > the stock and shorting OR just straight out shorting?..... so
> > market
> > > mechanisms still exist for speculators to 'move the markets' to
> > some
> > > extent.
> > >
> > > - will the institutions that play on the short side take this
> lying
> > > down (exchanges, brokers, funds) e.g. will the options industry
> OR
> > > the SSF exchange fold up their tents (if all shorting is
banned)?
> > >
> > > - already, in Australia, the monopolistic ASX suffered a > 1%
> fall
> > in
> > > the first day of new trading, (ex the short sell ban) - punters
> > > believe the profits of listed exchanges, without the turnover
> > created
> > > by short selling, will be slashed.
> > >
> > > - fair playing field? Aus regulators decided to ban all short
> > selling
> > > in Aus indefinitely, following a weekend ring around with their
> > > international mates ..... come Monday morning they had to
hastily
> > > cancel the first hour of trade (no headline announcements
there)
> > > after the instutionals quickly got on the phone to the Aus
> > regulators
> > > to add a few quick patches to suit their needs etc etc
> > >
> > > - speculators might move over to pounding other non-financial
> > targets
> > > (GM)
> > >
> > > - outside the US punters can do naughty things like spread
> > > betting ... so far some of the big players are 'regulated' and
> > > compliant e.g. IG Markets .... is it possible 'dealers' like
this
> > > will move outside of regulation and develop exotic shorting
> > > alternative (businesses always develop products to meet demand)?
> > >
> > > Watch this space?
> > >
> > > Those who made a killing on Gold in the last 6 months - was it
> good
> > > luck or good management? ... remember what goes up fast
> (possessing
> > > the quality of momentum) can also come down fast.
> > >
> > > Did anyone using mechanical/AT systems take a haircut based
> > > on 'unprogrammable contextual moves'?
> > >
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Yuki,
> > > >
> > > > On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would
> > > > love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any)
> > > > between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now.
> > > >
> > > > In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned
earlier
> > in
> > > this thread
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default
> > > .htm
> > > > we can find this:
> > > > "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...]
> > > > Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth
> besides
> > > deflation,
> > > > including massive financial problems in the banking and
> corporate
> > > sectors and a large overhang of government debt.
> > > > private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of
the
> > > monetary policies that have been tried in Japan,
> > > > even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made
Japanese
> > > policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies
> > > > [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these
> > problems,
> > > at least not to anything like the same degree"
> > > >
> > > > Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in
> > 2008.
> > > >
> > > > Best regards,
> > > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > > amibroker.com
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> > > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hello,
> > > > >
> > > > > In his post Patrick just added single sentence to
> > > > > make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox.
> > > > > I can not see anything wrong with that.
> > > > > I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning
> > > > > that somebody posted something via private channel,
> > > > > and nobody complained.
> > > > > Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere?
> > > > > Thank you in advance and have a good day.
> > > > >
> > > > > Best regards,
> > > > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > > > amibroker.com
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@>
> > > > > To: "vlanschot" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >> Hi vlanschot,
> > > > >>
> > > > >> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several
> orders
> > of
> > > > >> magnitude.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last
week,
> > nor
> > > this
> > > > >> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side
of
> my
> > > > >> trades.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you
> sent a
> > > > >> private email -- on a public list.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before
you
> > > were, and
> > > > >> I don't think it has changed that much.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't
> attempt
> > to
> > > get
> > > > >> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership
here
> is
> > > > >> probably not the least bit interested to know that you
sent
> an
> > > email
> > > > >> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list
owner),
> the
> > > > >> contents of which they will probably never share.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I
find
> it
> > > > >> strange nonetheless.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Yuki
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote:
> > > > >>
> > > > >> v> Hi Yuki,
> > > > >>
> > > > >> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only
imagine
> > how
> > > you
> > > > >> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I
> > > increasingly feel
> > > > >> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of
its
> > way
> > > of
> > > > >> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe
there
> > > have been
> > > > >> v> plenty of other references in this group to private
> emails,
> > > and
> > > > >> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a
> > > reaction.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding
> references
> > > which I
> > > > >> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can
> calm
> > > down now.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> v> PS
> > > > >>
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion.
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly
> illuminative
> > > for the
> > > > >>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list
that
> > you
> > > sent
> > > > >>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are
> not
> > in
> > > > >>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get
> subscribers
> > to
> > > your
> > > > >>>> off list messages?
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm
> > beating
> > > my
> > > > >>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent.
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>>> Phooey.
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>>> Yuki
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >> ------------------------------------
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Please note that this group is for discussion between
users
> > only.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
directly
> > to
> > > > >> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > > >>
> > > > >> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
> > DEVLOG:
> > > > >> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> > > > >>
> > > > >> For other support material please check also:
> > > > >> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > > > >> Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >>
> > > > >
> > > > > ------------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
> > only.
> > > > >
> > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
directly
> to
> > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > > >
> > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
> > DEVLOG:
> > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> > > > >
> > > > > For other support material please check also:
> > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
------------------------------------
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
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