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Thanks Ara. I have the feeling that we have some
serious communication problems so let us not waste our time anymore and stop
this issue. BTW I understand and do agree what you are saying ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, May 30, 2007 1:46
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Ton,
In real time trading, the brain can do things
that you don't even think of coding as part of a system ... so if you trade
well you can do very well with a leveraged instrument. Needless to say
leverage is a double edge sword!!!
You certaily need to have a good basis to trade
from... and it has to be quantifyable which means you can code it. Suggest a
system that you get 60%+ winning trades with 2:1 win / loss amount.
Need to operate with multiple time frames and
have a good understanding of support / resistence issues as well as
fibs.
When you trade the NQ (or any other single
instrument) you give up diversification and all the benefits and limitations
that go with it. So trading a single issue with leverage gives you a lot of
potential if traded well. Traded poorly of course can be
disasterous.
I don't necessarily recommend day trading, as it
is a very personal decision.
If you average 5 trades per day with a 2 point
profit per trade and 2 contracts, that's $400 (before comm). Assume you need 5
times the assets of your average trade, so you would need $20K to be able to
trade at this level.
Does this sound reasonable to you? If yes, that
is a 2% return!!! If it's not reasonable, then do the math for what you feel
is reasonable. Also figure in the percentage of time that you are not
available or do not feel like trading.
I have said all I will say about this ... I am
not interested in convincing you to day trade.... just trying to give you some
of my perspective.... good luck
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 11:42
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
That's even better. So no real but only
emotional risk. No draw downs and a 100% winning system. Come on Ara, you
must know what I am talking about. Just the standard risk ratio's you can
find in the AB backtest report also. Of course I can try the IB trading
simulator but it's always nice to get the real world risk ratio's before
doing the swimming myself ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 4:23
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
Ton,
Trading the NQ, as I indicated before, 1% is
quite easy... and the risk is entirely "in your head". My friends who day
trade it have been doing very very well for over a year, with very few
losing trades. My track record is not so hot because I made large and
inexcusable errors, that had nothing to do with my system.
I don't mean to imply its easy work. In fact
it is hard work .... It takes a lot of discipline and focus.
So if you have a good system and keep your
losses down, you can do very well! You might try the IB simulated trading
for a while to get used to it.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 1:29
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
Well I am talking about trading the
Nasdaq100 Futures. Since you "feel that 1% a day is doable", you should
have statistical stuff to show the probability of your return ... Also
1% a day is great but at what risk etc. ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 5:51
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Ton,
Sorry, no adequate statistics .... as I
indicated I really do not trade stocks ... The little that I did, I
did manage 1% a few times. The issue as I see it, is stock selection.
My beleif is just that.... fully appreciate that stocks will sometimes
move a lot .... other times they will not .... a computerized tracking
can facilitate the selection... and provide ability to trade in a
timely manner.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 1:30
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Do you have any trading statistics
showing me that 1% a day is doable Ara ? Of course I would like to
see a 100% automated trading result to avoid all kinds of emotional
trading parties. And to get 'some' confidence from a statistical
point of view at least 100 trades ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007
11:54 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
1% a day, I feel is quite
doable!!!
I say this because of my emini day
trading... where trading the NQ I could make $300 to $1500 a day,
depending on trading activity and market conditions, trading with
a $50K account, on a "regular basis".... and it was not too
difficult. Granted NQ had a 20:1 leverage! I feel that
on average $1000 a day is quite reasonable with a small account
trading the NQ. When opprtunity presents itself and the full
capital of $50K is used a 10% return is possible.
Taking all things into account, 1% /
day is not too unreasonable for stocks with some volatility.
Granted one will have to be focuced and have a good
system.
With the very minimum stock day
trading I have done, finding and catching the significant moves if
difficult.
I must admit, my bottom line is
nothing to envy ... I found that I make inexcusable emotional
mistakes, that are very costly... Further, being available to
trade and in a good frame of mind is not always possible, so at
best 50% efficiency is probably possible ... and then no silly
mistakes allowed.
I do have a couple of friends who do
trade the NQ pretty much full time ... and do quite well .... and
obviously have a temperment better than mine for day trading... so
good returns are reasonable on a consistent basis!!!
I am optomistic about autotrading
because it removes the subjective and emotional components of
one's trading, so a decent system that incorporates good money
management and recognizes poor / good trading environment can
produce a significant return.
A good autotrade program used with a
leveraged vehicle obviously has a huge potential...
So keep the faith ... and be careful!
It will work out.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007
12:35 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker]
Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
Herman thanks for your short resume
of the Trading world. Just a simple question. Do you really
believe that group number 1 exists ? So Traders that do generate
with a minimum of code on a consistent basis a daily return of
2,5% without losing their pants on a terrible outlier or
drawdown that will take them out of business ? My experience is
that only a very small group of about 5% of the '2,5%+ return
Day Traders' is reaching for a relatively short period of time
the above target ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27,
2007 2:08 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker]
Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is
great fun to read ![]()
It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so
oblivious to each others' way of thinking. Consider two types
of traders (ignoring the many types in between):
1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small
lots of 100 shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times
a day, easily making up to a few percent on good days, using
an automated trading system.
2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade
and must roll over millions of dollars trading for others,
making, if they are lucky a few percent/month.
We have both of these traders on this list but really they
should have their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and
AmiBroker-Skinny ![]() their expectations are not and cannot
be the same.
In the first category volumes, market trends, market
analysis, traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system
design. Their systems can be extremely simple and their
trading rules may be expressed using only half a dozen lines
of code while their automation code may easily exceed 1000
lines. Their trading screen may only display a lists of
tickers with order status: no charts. They work hard to design
and optimize code for maximum execution speed so that to can
get their orders placed before the next quote comes in - speed
translates in profits and 20-40 mSec execution is
typical.
Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they
thrive on traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts,
perhaps totalling 1000s of lines of code. Their automation
code, if they use it, may just be a a hundred lines long
and aims to save them some typing - not to catch a trade. They
use old (10-20 years!) techniques and statistical analysis
that are rehashed over and over, they thrive on sophisticated
analysis to squeeze out a fraction of a percent more per month
(or reduce awful DDs). Code can be bloated with cosmetic stuff
and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to execute.
Traders from both categories ought to respect each
others.
best regards,
herman
Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
|
> |
Hi Dennis --
Averages 2.5% per day!?
That same $1,000 starting account
becomes $294,000,000 in two years.
(1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
Please pass my email address on to
your friend who gets 2.5% per day. howardbandy
at gmail.com I have contacts who will reward him
handsomely.
When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to
$1,000,000 in one year and became famous for it, that
required a return of 1.84% per day. 2.5% per day
turns $10,000 to $5,039,800 in one year.
Help me understand -- Assume I can
average 1% per day on, say, $100,000. Every month,
I start with $100,000 and make $24,471 on that $100,000.
Why would I pull my $24,471 profits out so that
they can make 1% for the next month instead of
continuing to trade them and making 24% for the next
month?
And, yes, trading in size affects
the market. But if your friend is trading several
times per day in markets with high liquidity and narrow
bid-asked spreads, then $1,000,000 is still small size.
QQQQ and IWM each regularly trade $5 billion
dollars a day -- $1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of
trading.
Pardon my skepticism --
Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxxxxxxxcom> wrote:
|
I know of more than one 1%
per day method, but of course it will not work to
compound. That is not the way a true trader
does it. I know a trader who averages 2.5%
per day on about 5 trades per day on one ETF, and
holds no position overnight. He pulls his
profits out and lives on them or puts them to work
in longer term investments. High
rates of return only work for small investments
and usually require a lot of personal attention
and pattern recognition during the day. If
it worked for large sums, or easy computer
algorithms, the big boys (or hoards) would work
that angle to death and the edge would get
neutralized. Once you try to increase
position sizes above a certain amount, you start
to influence the market and you have no one to
play against --it takes two to have a market.
That is why large mutual funds must look to
a fundamental value model. They can not
trade the technicals quick enough without killing
the market. A true trader will just work the
market technicals to pull out a small amount of
money at a consistent rate (no home runs).
Over time, the results add up to a decent
living.
Dennis
On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM,
Howard B wrote:
One percent a day.
Yeah, right.
Compound one percent a day
for five years and a $1,000 trading account
becomes $278,000,000. Start with real money
and own Manhattan.
(1.01) ^ 1260 =
278,567
Howard
On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <dralexchambers@yahoo.com> wrote:
T-ohrt - the thing you are
missing is not your technical ability,
but
your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE
to new things.
You seem to mistrust my
recommendation when in fact you nothing
of
me, my level of trading
knowledge, this system or my involvement
with
it (my involvement is none
other than my affiliate link - just
to
make that entirely
clear).
If you believe that 1% a
month is all that is possible, that will
be
your reality, and you will
discount ideas that make more as
trickery.
If you want trade lists,
further explanations on the system I
recommended - discuss it with
David, the author. It is not my job to
divulge a system that someone
else owns.
However, I will say that
David's system is very credible and
also
very simple. I have recieved
a lot of support from David and
his
system opened my eyes to
swing trading.
I also know of an individual
who makes 1% A DAY - and publishes
all
his methods and indicators
for free, online.
Look for The Rumpled One
at:
www.kreslik.com.
I am currently porting his
work over to Amibroker on that
site.
And yes, once again - it is
all FREE, and you definately won't find
it in your "Beyond Technical
Analysis" book.
AC
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