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Ton,
Trading the NQ, as I indicated before, 1% is quite
easy... and the risk is entirely "in your head". My friends who day trade it
have been doing very very well for over a year, with very few losing trades. My
track record is not so hot because I made large and inexcusable errors, that had
nothing to do with my system.
I don't mean to imply its easy work. In fact it is
hard work .... It takes a lot of discipline and focus.
So if you have a good system and keep your losses
down, you can do very well! You might try the IB simulated trading for a while
to get used to it.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 1:29 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Well I am talking about trading the Nasdaq100
Futures. Since you "feel that 1% a day is doable", you should have statistical
stuff to show the probability of your return ... Also 1% a day is great but at
what risk etc. ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 5:51
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Ton,
Sorry, no adequate statistics .... as I
indicated I really do not trade stocks ... The little that I did, I did
manage 1% a few times. The issue as I see it, is stock selection. My beleif
is just that.... fully appreciate that stocks will sometimes move a lot ....
other times they will not .... a computerized tracking can facilitate the
selection... and provide ability to trade in a timely manner.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 1:30
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
Do you have any trading statistics showing me
that 1% a day is doable Ara ? Of course I would like to see a 100%
automated trading result to avoid all kinds of emotional trading parties.
And to get 'some' confidence from a statistical point of view at least 100
trades ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 11:54
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
1% a day, I feel is quite
doable!!!
I say this because of my emini day
trading... where trading the NQ I could make $300 to $1500 a day,
depending on trading activity and market conditions, trading with a $50K
account, on a "regular basis".... and it was not too difficult. Granted
NQ had a 20:1 leverage! I feel that on average $1000 a day
is quite reasonable with a small account trading the NQ. When opprtunity
presents itself and the full capital of $50K is used a 10% return is
possible.
Taking all things into account, 1% / day is
not too unreasonable for stocks with some volatility. Granted one will
have to be focuced and have a good system.
With the very minimum stock day trading I
have done, finding and catching the significant moves if
difficult.
I must admit, my bottom line is nothing to
envy ... I found that I make inexcusable emotional mistakes, that are
very costly... Further, being available to trade and in a good frame of
mind is not always possible, so at best 50% efficiency is probably
possible ... and then no silly mistakes allowed.
I do have a couple of friends who do trade
the NQ pretty much full time ... and do quite well .... and obviously
have a temperment better than mine for day trading... so good returns
are reasonable on a consistent basis!!!
I am optomistic about autotrading because
it removes the subjective and emotional components of one's trading, so
a decent system that incorporates good money management and recognizes
poor / good trading environment can produce a significant
return.
A good autotrade program used with a
leveraged vehicle obviously has a huge potential...
So keep the faith ... and be careful! It
will work out.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 12:35
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Herman thanks for your short resume of
the Trading world. Just a simple question. Do you really believe that
group number 1 exists ? So Traders that do generate with a minimum of
code on a consistent basis a daily return of 2,5% without losing their
pants on a terrible outlier or drawdown that will take them out of
business ? My experience is that only a very small group of about 5%
of the '2,5%+ return Day Traders' is reaching for a relatively short
period of time the above target ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 2:08
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is great
fun to read ![]()
It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so
oblivious to each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of
traders (ignoring the many types in between):
1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small lots
of 100 shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a day,
easily making up to a few percent on good days, using an automated
trading system.
2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade and
must roll over millions of dollars trading for others, making, if
they are lucky a few percent/month.
We have both of these traders on this list but really they should
have their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and
AmiBroker-Skinny ![]() their expectations are not and cannot be the
same.
In the first category volumes, market trends, market analysis,
traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system design. Their
systems can be extremely simple and their trading rules may be
expressed using only half a dozen lines of code while their
automation code may easily exceed 1000 lines. Their trading screen
may only display a lists of tickers with order status: no charts.
They work hard to design and optimize code for maximum execution
speed so that to can get their orders placed before the next quote
comes in - speed translates in profits and 20-40 mSec execution is
typical.
Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they
thrive on traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts, perhaps
totalling 1000s of lines of code. Their automation code, if they
use it, may just be a a hundred lines long and aims to save
them some typing - not to catch a trade. They use old (10-20 years!)
techniques and statistical analysis that are rehashed over and over,
they thrive on sophisticated analysis to squeeze out a fraction of a
percent more per month (or reduce awful DDs). Code can be bloated
with cosmetic stuff and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to
execute.
Traders from both categories ought to respect each others.
best regards,
herman
Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
|
> |
Hi Dennis --
Averages 2.5% per day!?
That same $1,000 starting account becomes
$294,000,000 in two years.
(1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
Please pass my email address on to your
friend who gets 2.5% per day. howardbandy
at gmail.com
I have contacts who will reward him handsomely.
When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to
$1,000,000 in one year and became famous for it, that required
a return of 1.84% per day. 2.5% per day turns $10,000 to
$5,039,800 in one year.
Help me understand -- Assume I can
average 1% per day on, say, $100,000. Every month, I
start with $100,000 and make $24,471 on that $100,000.
Why would I pull my $24,471 profits out so that they can
make 1% for the next month instead of continuing to trade them
and making 24% for the next month?
And, yes, trading in size affects the
market. But if your friend is trading several times per
day in markets with high liquidity and narrow bid-asked
spreads, then $1,000,000 is still small size. QQQQ and
IWM each regularly trade $5 billion dollars a day --
$1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of trading.
Pardon my skepticism --
Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxxxxxxxcom> wrote:
|
I know of more than one 1% per day
method, but of course it will not work to compound.
That is not the way a true trader does it. I
know a trader who averages 2.5% per day on about 5
trades per day on one ETF, and holds no position
overnight. He pulls his profits out and lives on
them or puts them to work in longer term investments.
High rates of return only work for small
investments and usually require a lot of personal
attention and pattern recognition during the day.
If it worked for large sums, or easy computer
algorithms, the big boys (or hoards) would work that
angle to death and the edge would get neutralized.
Once you try to increase position sizes above a
certain amount, you start to influence the market and
you have no one to play against --it takes two to have a
market. That is why large mutual funds must look
to a fundamental value model. They can not trade
the technicals quick enough without killing the market.
A true trader will just work the market technicals
to pull out a small amount of money at a consistent rate
(no home runs). Over time, the results add up to a
decent living.
Dennis
On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM, Howard
B wrote:
One percent a day. Yeah,
right.
Compound one percent a day for five
years and a $1,000 trading account becomes $278,000,000.
Start with real money and own
Manhattan.
(1.01) ^ 1260 = 278,567
Howard
On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <dralexchambers@yahoo.com> wrote:
T-ohrt - the thing you are missing
is not your technical ability, but
your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE to
new things.
You seem to mistrust my
recommendation when in fact you nothing
of
me, my level of trading knowledge,
this system or my involvement with
it (my involvement is none other
than my affiliate link - just to
make that entirely
clear).
If you believe that 1% a month is
all that is possible, that will be
your reality, and you will discount
ideas that make more as trickery.
If you want trade lists, further
explanations on the system I
recommended - discuss it with
David, the author. It is not my job to
divulge a system that someone else
owns.
However, I will say that David's
system is very credible and also
very simple. I have recieved a lot
of support from David and his
system opened my eyes to swing
trading.
I also know of an individual who
makes 1% A DAY - and publishes all
his methods and indicators for
free, online.
Look for The Rumpled One
at:
www.kreslik.com.
I am currently porting his work
over to Amibroker on that site.
And yes, once again - it is all
FREE, and you definately won't find
it in your "Beyond Technical
Analysis" book.
AC
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