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Ton,
In real time trading, the brain can do things that
you don't even think of coding as part of a system ... so if you trade well you
can do very well with a leveraged instrument. Needless to say leverage is a
double edge sword!!!
You certaily need to have a good basis to trade
from... and it has to be quantifyable which means you can code it. Suggest a
system that you get 60%+ winning trades with 2:1 win / loss amount.
Need to operate with multiple time frames and have
a good understanding of support / resistence issues as well as
fibs.
When you trade the NQ (or any other single
instrument) you give up diversification and all the benefits and limitations
that go with it. So trading a single issue with leverage gives you a lot of
potential if traded well. Traded poorly of course can be
disasterous.
I don't necessarily recommend day trading, as it is
a very personal decision.
If you average 5 trades per day with a 2 point
profit per trade and 2 contracts, that's $400 (before comm). Assume you need 5
times the assets of your average trade, so you would need $20K to be able to
trade at this level.
Does this sound reasonable to you? If yes, that is
a 2% return!!! If it's not reasonable, then do the math for what you feel is
reasonable. Also figure in the percentage of time that you are not available or
do not feel like trading.
I have said all I will say about this ... I am not
interested in convincing you to day trade.... just trying to give you some of my
perspective.... good luck
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 11:42
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
That's even better. So no real but only emotional
risk. No draw downs and a 100% winning system. Come on Ara, you must know what
I am talking about. Just the standard risk ratio's you can find in the AB
backtest report also. Of course I can try the IB trading simulator but it's
always nice to get the real world risk ratio's before doing the swimming
myself ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 4:23
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Ton,
Trading the NQ, as I indicated before, 1% is
quite easy... and the risk is entirely "in your head". My friends who day
trade it have been doing very very well for over a year, with very few
losing trades. My track record is not so hot because I made large and
inexcusable errors, that had nothing to do with my system.
I don't mean to imply its easy work. In fact it
is hard work .... It takes a lot of discipline and focus.
So if you have a good system and keep your
losses down, you can do very well! You might try the IB simulated trading
for a while to get used to it.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 1:29
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
Well I am talking about trading the Nasdaq100
Futures. Since you "feel that 1% a day is doable", you should have
statistical stuff to show the probability of your return ... Also 1% a day
is great but at what risk etc. ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 5:51
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
Ton,
Sorry, no adequate statistics .... as I
indicated I really do not trade stocks ... The little that I did, I did
manage 1% a few times. The issue as I see it, is stock selection. My
beleif is just that.... fully appreciate that stocks will sometimes move
a lot .... other times they will not .... a computerized tracking can
facilitate the selection... and provide ability to trade in a timely
manner.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 1:30
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Do you have any trading statistics
showing me that 1% a day is doable Ara ? Of course I would like to see
a 100% automated trading result to avoid all kinds of emotional
trading parties. And to get 'some' confidence from a statistical point
of view at least 100 trades ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007
11:54 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
1% a day, I feel is quite
doable!!!
I say this because of my emini day
trading... where trading the NQ I could make $300 to $1500 a day,
depending on trading activity and market conditions, trading with a
$50K account, on a "regular basis".... and it was not too difficult.
Granted NQ had a 20:1 leverage! I feel that on average
$1000 a day is quite reasonable with a small account trading the NQ.
When opprtunity presents itself and the full capital of $50K is used
a 10% return is possible.
Taking all things into account, 1% /
day is not too unreasonable for stocks with some volatility. Granted
one will have to be focuced and have a good system.
With the very minimum stock day trading
I have done, finding and catching the significant moves if
difficult.
I must admit, my bottom line is nothing
to envy ... I found that I make inexcusable emotional mistakes, that
are very costly... Further, being available to trade and in a good
frame of mind is not always possible, so at best 50% efficiency is
probably possible ... and then no silly mistakes
allowed.
I do have a couple of friends who do
trade the NQ pretty much full time ... and do quite well .... and
obviously have a temperment better than mine for day trading... so
good returns are reasonable on a consistent basis!!!
I am optomistic about autotrading
because it removes the subjective and emotional components of one's
trading, so a decent system that incorporates good money management
and recognizes poor / good trading environment can produce a
significant return.
A good autotrade program used with a
leveraged vehicle obviously has a huge potential...
So keep the faith ... and be careful!
It will work out.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007
12:35 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Herman thanks for your short resume
of the Trading world. Just a simple question. Do you really
believe that group number 1 exists ? So Traders that do generate
with a minimum of code on a consistent basis a daily return of
2,5% without losing their pants on a terrible outlier or drawdown
that will take them out of business ? My experience is that only a
very small group of about 5% of the '2,5%+ return Day Traders' is
reaching for a relatively short period of time the above target
...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007
2:08 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker]
Re: Ideas for Swing Trading?
Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is
great fun to read ![]()
It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so
oblivious to each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of
traders (ignoring the many types in between):
1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small
lots of 100 shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a
day, easily making up to a few percent on good days, using an
automated trading system.
2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade
and must roll over millions of dollars trading for others,
making, if they are lucky a few percent/month.
We have both of these traders on this list but really they
should have their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and
AmiBroker-Skinny ![]() their expectations are not and cannot be the
same.
In the first category volumes, market trends, market
analysis, traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system
design. Their systems can be extremely simple and their trading
rules may be expressed using only half a dozen lines of code
while their automation code may easily exceed 1000 lines. Their
trading screen may only display a lists of tickers with order
status: no charts. They work hard to design and optimize code
for maximum execution speed so that to can get their orders
placed before the next quote comes in - speed translates in
profits and 20-40 mSec execution is typical.
Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they
thrive on traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts,
perhaps totalling 1000s of lines of code. Their automation code,
if they use it, may just be a a hundred lines long and
aims to save them some typing - not to catch a trade. They use
old (10-20 years!) techniques and statistical analysis that are
rehashed over and over, they thrive on sophisticated analysis to
squeeze out a fraction of a percent more per month (or reduce
awful DDs). Code can be bloated with cosmetic stuff and its OK
if it takes 5 minutes to execute.
Traders from both categories ought to respect each
others.
best regards,
herman
Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
|
> |
Hi Dennis --
Averages 2.5% per day!?
That same $1,000 starting account
becomes $294,000,000 in two years.
(1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
Please pass my email address on to
your friend who gets 2.5% per day. howardbandy
at gmail.com I have contacts who will reward him
handsomely.
When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to
$1,000,000 in one year and became famous for it, that
required a return of 1.84% per day. 2.5% per day
turns $10,000 to $5,039,800 in one year.
Help me understand -- Assume I can
average 1% per day on, say, $100,000. Every month, I
start with $100,000 and make $24,471 on that $100,000.
Why would I pull my $24,471 profits out so that they
can make 1% for the next month instead of continuing to
trade them and making 24% for the next
month?
And, yes, trading in size affects the
market. But if your friend is trading several times
per day in markets with high liquidity and narrow
bid-asked spreads, then $1,000,000 is still small size.
QQQQ and IWM each regularly trade $5 billion dollars
a day -- $1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of
trading.
Pardon my skepticism --
Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxxxxxxxcom> wrote:
|
I know of more than one 1% per
day method, but of course it will not work to
compound. That is not the way a true trader
does it. I know a trader who averages 2.5% per
day on about 5 trades per day on one ETF, and holds
no position overnight. He pulls his profits
out and lives on them or puts them to work in longer
term investments. High rates of return
only work for small investments and usually require
a lot of personal attention and pattern recognition
during the day. If it worked for large sums,
or easy computer algorithms, the big boys (or
hoards) would work that angle to death and the edge
would get neutralized. Once you try to
increase position sizes above a certain amount, you
start to influence the market and you have no one to
play against --it takes two to have a market.
That is why large mutual funds must look to a
fundamental value model. They can not trade
the technicals quick enough without killing the
market. A true trader will just work the
market technicals to pull out a small amount of
money at a consistent rate (no home runs).
Over time, the results add up to a decent
living.
Dennis
On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM,
Howard B wrote:
One percent a day. Yeah,
right.
Compound one percent a day for
five years and a $1,000 trading account becomes
$278,000,000. Start with real money and own
Manhattan.
(1.01) ^ 1260 =
278,567
Howard
On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <dralexchambers@yahoo.com> wrote:
T-ohrt - the thing you are
missing is not your technical ability,
but
your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE
to new things.
You seem to mistrust my
recommendation when in fact you nothing
of
me, my level of trading
knowledge, this system or my involvement
with
it (my involvement is none
other than my affiliate link - just
to
make that entirely
clear).
If you believe that 1% a month
is all that is possible, that will be
your reality, and you will
discount ideas that make more as
trickery.
If you want trade lists,
further explanations on the system I
recommended - discuss it with
David, the author. It is not my job to
divulge a system that someone
else owns.
However, I will say that
David's system is very credible and
also
very simple. I have recieved a
lot of support from David and his
system opened my eyes to swing
trading.
I also know of an individual
who makes 1% A DAY - and publishes
all
his methods and indicators for
free, online.
Look for The Rumpled One
at:
www.kreslik.com.
I am currently porting his work
over to Amibroker on that site.
And yes, once again - it is all
FREE, and you definately won't find
it in your "Beyond Technical
Analysis" book.
AC
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