1% a day, I feel is quite doable!!!
I say this because of my emini day trading... where
trading the NQ I could make $300 to $1500 a day, depending on trading activity
and market conditions, trading with a $50K account, on a "regular basis".... and
it was not too difficult. Granted NQ had a 20:1 leverage! I feel
that on average $1000 a day is quite reasonable with a small account trading the
NQ. When opprtunity presents itself and the full capital of $50K is used a 10%
return is possible.
Taking all things into account, 1% / day is not too
unreasonable for stocks with some volatility. Granted one will have to be
focuced and have a good system.
With the very minimum stock day trading I have
done, finding and catching the significant moves if difficult.
I must admit, my bottom line is nothing to envy ...
I found that I make inexcusable emotional mistakes, that are very costly...
Further, being available to trade and in a good frame of mind is not always
possible, so at best 50% efficiency is probably possible ... and then no silly
mistakes allowed.
I do have a couple of friends who do trade the NQ
pretty much full time ... and do quite well .... and obviously have a temperment
better than mine for day trading... so good returns are reasonable on a
consistent basis!!!
I am optomistic about autotrading because it
removes the subjective and emotional components of one's trading, so a decent
system that incorporates good money management and recognizes poor / good
trading environment can produce a significant return.
A good autotrade program used with a leveraged
vehicle obviously has a huge potential...
So keep the faith ... and be careful! It will work
out.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 12:35 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Herman thanks for your short resume of the
Trading world. Just a simple question. Do you really believe that group number
1 exists ? So Traders that do generate with a minimum of code on a consistent
basis a daily return of 2,5% without losing their pants on a terrible outlier
or drawdown that will take them out of business ? My experience is that only a
very small group of about 5% of the '2,5%+ return Day Traders' is reaching for
a relatively short period of time the above target ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 2:08
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is great fun to
read
It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so oblivious to
each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of traders (ignoring the
many types in between):
1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small lots of 100
shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a day, easily making up
to a few percent on good days, using an automated trading system.
2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade and must roll
over millions of dollars trading for others, making, if they are lucky a few
percent/month.
We have both of these traders on this list but really they should have
their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and AmiBroker-Skinny their expectations are not and cannot be the
same.
In the first category volumes, market trends, market analysis,
traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system design. Their systems can
be extremely simple and their trading rules may be expressed using only half
a dozen lines of code while their automation code may easily exceed 1000
lines. Their trading screen may only display a lists of tickers with order
status: no charts. They work hard to design and optimize code for maximum
execution speed so that to can get their orders placed before the next quote
comes in - speed translates in profits and 20-40 mSec execution is
typical.
Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they thrive on
traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts, perhaps totalling 1000s of
lines of code. Their automation code, if they use it, may just be a a
hundred lines long and aims to save them some typing - not to catch a trade.
They use old (10-20 years!) techniques and statistical analysis that are
rehashed over and over, they thrive on sophisticated analysis to squeeze out
a fraction of a percent more per month (or reduce awful DDs). Code can be
bloated with cosmetic stuff and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to
execute.
Traders from both categories ought to respect each others.
best regards,
herman
Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
> |
Hi Dennis --
Averages 2.5% per day!?
That same $1,000 starting account becomes
$294,000,000 in two years.
(1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
Please pass my email address on to your friend
who gets 2.5% per day. howardbandy at gmail.com I have
contacts who will reward him handsomely.
When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to $1,000,000 in
one year and became famous for it, that required a return of 1.84% per
day. 2.5% per day turns $10,000 to $5,039,800 in one year.
Help me understand -- Assume I can average 1% per
day on, say, $100,000. Every month, I start with $100,000 and
make $24,471 on that $100,000. Why would I pull my $24,471
profits out so that they can make 1% for the next month instead of
continuing to trade them and making 24% for the next
month?
And, yes, trading in size affects the market.
But if your friend is trading several times per day in markets
with high liquidity and narrow bid-asked spreads, then $1,000,000 is
still small size. QQQQ and IWM each regularly trade $5 billion
dollars a day -- $1,000,000 is 5 seconds worth of
trading.
Pardon my skepticism --
Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
On 5/26/07, Dennis
Brown <see3d@xxxxxxxxcom> wrote:
I know of more than one 1% per day method,
but of course it will not work to compound. That is not
the way a true trader does it. I know a trader who
averages 2.5% per day on about 5 trades per day on one ETF, and
holds no position overnight. He pulls his profits out and
lives on them or puts them to work in longer term investments.
High rates of return only work for small
investments and usually require a lot of personal attention and
pattern recognition during the day. If it worked for large
sums, or easy computer algorithms, the big boys (or hoards)
would work that angle to death and the edge would get
neutralized. Once you try to increase position sizes above
a certain amount, you start to influence the market and you have
no one to play against --it takes two to have a market.
That is why large mutual funds must look to a fundamental
value model. They can not trade the technicals quick
enough without killing the market. A true trader will just
work the market technicals to pull out a small amount of money
at a consistent rate (no home runs). Over time, the
results add up to a decent living.
Dennis
On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM, Howard B
wrote:
One percent a day. Yeah,
right.
Compound one percent a day for five years
and a $1,000 trading account becomes $278,000,000. Start
with real money and own Manhattan.
(1.01) ^ 1260 = 278,567
Howard
On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <dralexchambers@yahoo.com> wrote:
T-ohrt - the thing you are missing is not
your technical ability, but
your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE to new
things.
You seem to mistrust my recommendation when
in fact you nothing of
me, my level of trading knowledge, this
system or my involvement with
it (my involvement is none other than my
affiliate link - just to
make that entirely clear).
If you believe that 1% a month is all that
is possible, that will be
your reality, and you will discount ideas
that make more as trickery.
If you want trade lists, further
explanations on the system I
recommended - discuss it with David, the
author. It is not my job to
divulge a system that someone else
owns.
However, I will say that David's system is
very credible and also
very simple. I have recieved a lot of
support from David and his
system opened my eyes to swing
trading.
I also know of an individual who makes 1% A
DAY - and publishes all
his methods and indicators for free,
online.
Look for The Rumpled One at:
www.kreslik.com.
I am currently porting his work over to
Amibroker on that site.
And yes, once again - it is all FREE, and
you definately won't find
it in your "Beyond Technical Analysis"
book.
AC
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