Well I am talking about trading the Nasdaq100
Futures. Since you "feel that 1% a day is doable", you should have statistical
stuff to show the probability of your return ... Also 1% a day is great but at
what risk etc. ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 5:51 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Ton,
Sorry, no adequate statistics .... as I indicated
I really do not trade stocks ... The little that I did, I did manage 1% a few
times. The issue as I see it, is stock selection. My beleif is just that....
fully appreciate that stocks will sometimes move a lot .... other times they
will not .... a computerized tracking can facilitate the selection... and
provide ability to trade in a timely manner.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 1:30
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas for
Swing Trading?
Do you have any trading statistics showing me
that 1% a day is doable Ara ? Of course I would like to see a 100% automated
trading result to avoid all kinds of emotional trading parties. And to get
'some' confidence from a statistical point of view at least 100 trades
...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 11:54
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
1% a day, I feel is quite
doable!!!
I say this because of my emini day trading...
where trading the NQ I could make $300 to $1500 a day, depending on
trading activity and market conditions, trading with a $50K account, on a
"regular basis".... and it was not too difficult. Granted NQ had a 20:1
leverage! I feel that on average $1000 a day is quite
reasonable with a small account trading the NQ. When opprtunity presents
itself and the full capital of $50K is used a 10% return is possible.
Taking all things into account, 1% / day is
not too unreasonable for stocks with some volatility. Granted one will
have to be focuced and have a good system.
With the very minimum stock day trading I
have done, finding and catching the significant moves if
difficult.
I must admit, my bottom line is nothing to
envy ... I found that I make inexcusable emotional mistakes, that are very
costly... Further, being available to trade and in a good frame of mind is
not always possible, so at best 50% efficiency is probably possible ...
and then no silly mistakes allowed.
I do have a couple of friends who do trade
the NQ pretty much full time ... and do quite well .... and obviously have
a temperment better than mine for day trading... so good returns are
reasonable on a consistent basis!!!
I am optomistic about autotrading because it
removes the subjective and emotional components of one's trading, so a
decent system that incorporates good money management and recognizes poor
/ good trading environment can produce a significant return.
A good autotrade program used with a
leveraged vehicle obviously has a huge potential...
So keep the faith ... and be careful! It will
work out.
Ara
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 12:35
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Ideas
for Swing Trading?
Herman thanks for your short resume of the
Trading world. Just a simple question. Do you really believe that group
number 1 exists ? So Traders that do generate with a minimum of code on
a consistent basis a daily return of 2,5% without losing their pants on
a terrible outlier or drawdown that will take them out of business ? My
experience is that only a very small group of about 5% of the '2,5%+
return Day Traders' is reaching for a relatively short period of time
the above target ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2007 2:08
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Ideas for Swing Trading?
Every few years this type of discussion surfaces and it is great
fun to read
It always surprises me how two types of traders can be so oblivious
to each others' way of thinking. Consider two types of traders
(ignoring the many types in between):
1) Those who scan 100+ stocks in Real-Time and trade small lots of
100 shares (or whatever the market allows) 5-100 times a day, easily
making up to a few percent on good days, using an automated trading
system.
2) Those who trade portfolios with 1000-10000 shares/trade and must
roll over millions of dollars trading for others, making, if they are
lucky a few percent/month.
We have both of these traders on this list but really they should
have their own lists, perhaps AmiBroker-Fat and
AmiBroker-Skinny their expectations are not and cannot be the same.
In the first category volumes, market trends, market analysis,
traditional TA, etc. play a minor role in system design. Their systems
can be extremely simple and their trading rules may be expressed using
only half a dozen lines of code while their automation code may easily
exceed 1000 lines. Their trading screen may only display a lists of
tickers with order status: no charts. They work hard to design and
optimize code for maximum execution speed so that to can get their
orders placed before the next quote comes in - speed translates in
profits and 20-40 mSec execution is typical.
Almost everything for the second category is reversed: they thrive
on traditional TA using many colorful chart-layouts, perhaps totalling
1000s of lines of code. Their automation code, if they use it,
may just be a a hundred lines long and aims to save them some typing -
not to catch a trade. They use old (10-20 years!) techniques and
statistical analysis that are rehashed over and over, they thrive on
sophisticated analysis to squeeze out a fraction of a percent more per
month (or reduce awful DDs). Code can be bloated with cosmetic stuff
and its OK if it takes 5 minutes to execute.
Traders from both categories ought to respect each others.
best regards,
herman
Sunday, May 27, 2007, 5:27:22 AM, you wrote:
> |
Hi Dennis --
Averages 2.5% per day!?
That same $1,000 starting account becomes
$294,000,000 in two years.
(1.025) ^ 510 = 294,558
Please pass my email address on to your
friend who gets 2.5% per day. howardbandy
at gmail.com I
have contacts who will reward him handsomely.
When Larry Williams ran $10,000 to
$1,000,000 in one year and became famous for it, that required a
return of 1.84% per day. 2.5% per day turns $10,000 to
$5,039,800 in one year.
Help me understand -- Assume I can average
1% per day on, say, $100,000. Every month, I start with
$100,000 and make $24,471 on that $100,000. Why would I
pull my $24,471 profits out so that they can make 1% for the
next month instead of continuing to trade them and making 24%
for the next month?
And, yes, trading in size affects the
market. But if your friend is trading several times per
day in markets with high liquidity and narrow bid-asked spreads,
then $1,000,000 is still small size. QQQQ and IWM each
regularly trade $5 billion dollars a day -- $1,000,000 is 5
seconds worth of trading.
Pardon my skepticism --
Thanks,
Howard
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com
On 5/26/07, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxxxxxxxcom> wrote:
I know of more than one 1% per day
method, but of course it will not work to compound.
That is not the way a true trader does it. I
know a trader who averages 2.5% per day on about 5 trades
per day on one ETF, and holds no position overnight.
He pulls his profits out and lives on them or puts
them to work in longer term investments. High
rates of return only work for small investments and
usually require a lot of personal attention and pattern
recognition during the day. If it worked for large
sums, or easy computer algorithms, the big boys (or
hoards) would work that angle to death and the edge would
get neutralized. Once you try to increase position
sizes above a certain amount, you start to influence the
market and you have no one to play against --it takes two
to have a market. That is why large mutual funds
must look to a fundamental value model. They can not
trade the technicals quick enough without killing the
market. A true trader will just work the market
technicals to pull out a small amount of money at a
consistent rate (no home runs). Over time, the
results add up to a decent living.
Dennis
On May 26, 2007, at 4:02 PM, Howard B
wrote:
One percent a day. Yeah,
right.
Compound one percent a day for five
years and a $1,000 trading account becomes $278,000,000.
Start with real money and own Manhattan.
(1.01) ^ 1260 = 278,567
Howard
On 5/26/07, dralexchambers <dralexchambers@yahoo.com> wrote:
T-ohrt - the thing you are missing is
not your technical ability, but
your BELIEF and your ATTITUDE to new
things.
You seem to mistrust my
recommendation when in fact you nothing
of
me, my level of trading knowledge,
this system or my involvement with
it (my involvement is none other than
my affiliate link - just to
make that entirely clear).
If you believe that 1% a month is all
that is possible, that will be
your reality, and you will discount
ideas that make more as trickery.
If you want trade lists, further
explanations on the system I
recommended - discuss it with David,
the author. It is not my job to
divulge a system that someone else
owns.
However, I will say that David's
system is very credible and also
very simple. I have recieved a lot of
support from David and his
system opened my eyes to swing
trading.
I also know of an individual who
makes 1% A DAY - and publishes all
his methods and indicators for free,
online.
Look for The Rumpled One
at:
www.kreslik.com.
I am currently porting his work over
to Amibroker on that site.
And yes, once again - it is all FREE,
and you definately won't find
it in your "Beyond Technical
Analysis" book.
AC
|
|
__._,_.___
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
For other support material please check also:
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
SPONSORED LINKS
__,_._,___
|