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Dimitris:
Hello: thanks for this unique code,
innovative and interesting as is most of your postings.
I am not criticizing your observations but
I would make my own observation that the reversal at D in your diagram is
almost exactly at the 0.618 retracement of the STRAIGHT support fib lines drawn
from a bottom at you’re a to the top at C. This does not in any way
invalidate your observations, and I myself would not make a buy on the day a
bar hits one of the fib ratios, but would it be possibly true that hitting a
more traditional “STRAIGHT” support fib retracement ratio could be
considered a SETUP and then if the next x bars (say three) are up, or a very
short EMA of price turns up, then that could be confirmation and one could
enter then with more confidence?? Is it not a possibility? Further,
the weekly chart shows that the very same low is 38.2% fib retracement from the
low on 5/2/2003<font size=2
color=navy face=Arial> to the same “C” top on 4/15/2004<span
>. I believe it is “common”
knowledge among those who use these setups that the probabilities are higher
when different time frame reversals occur at common fib retracement levels.
Thanks again for your innovative coding.
Ken
-----Original Message-----
From: Dimitris Tsokakis
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, June 12, 2004
11:58 AM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [amibroker] Fib solutions
vs the tough market decisions
Many [and potential] foreign traders preferred the TokyoSE the last
months.
After a prolonged uptrend, the big boys [not the crowd !!] decided to
apply severe pressure [C]
The index was loosing -2% or -3% or -5% without any serious resistance.
The tough question was the magnitude of the correction.
Fibonacci buyers failed at all known levels.
Although my innovative research was not posted this period, Oblique Fib
traders would also fail
to catch the proper Buy level.
This failure sounds somehow descriptive now but it could cost a lot of
money, because
1. 0.382 [negative]
2. 0.500 [negative again]
3. 0.618 [the great secret for many silent traders, but, negative
again]
4. 0.786 [many traders leave "the others" buy at 0.618 and
come and buy everything at the tricky 0.786 but, the market is negative again]
5. 1.000 [Well, there is no doubt we still have a bullish environment,
the market will react at this level, but, negative again]
6. 1.618[the situation is serious now, buy at this level is equivalent
to a bank guarantee etc etc]
This is the most tragic case, IMO. These buyers still wait, the market
ignored their intension, the market
was not interested for the color of their money, if they still want to
buy let us take now a +2% and a +2.4%
and, if they forget these Fib stories, let them buy +5% higher. If they
do not agree, they will pay another +5%
3 days later, it is a free market, they may buy whenever they want !!
Since it is a real story and not a trade-fiction, I
think I will never place an order at any Fib level, horizontal
or [the new] oblique.
Dimitris Tsokakis
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