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Phsst,
I have no problem with VIX, I use it in some [interesting] indicators.
I think we were talking for VIX price levels.
For this specific VIX property, the phrase "VIX lows" is meaningless
for me the last year or so.
Any attempt to Sell [or Short] the N100 market based on local VIX
lows would cause losses the last year.
This fact makes me think [and decide] that the local VIX lows is not
a reliable indication.
Since the last year VIX is going lower and lower, you may choose any
point of this descending line and call it a low, if you wish. It will
last for one or two weeks, then you will be obliged to reconsider
your opinion, this unreliable index will go lower and will cancel
your previous definition.
This is my opinion and I hope it is clear.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris,
>
> I think I addressed the VIX in my last reply to Yuki, but you
> contribute so much here that I feel that I need to reply to you out
of
> courtesy.
>
> My previous posts about the VIX were nothing more than observations
> about recent VIX levels.
>
> Not *suggestions* related to trading based soley upon VIX (at least
> that was my intent).
>
> I was a bit surprised however that my mention of VIX levels caused
the
> degree of reaction from you and Yuki.
>
> While I don't use VIX exclusively to trade, I do watch it from time
to
> time. Just like I watch RSI, Stoch & MACD leves from time to time.
>
> To say that the vix is totally unreliable seems to me to be a bit of
> an overstatement. It is just another indicator that we can refer to,
> and perhaps when considered with other things it might have some
value.
>
> But this all boils down to personal opinion, so there is not
a 'right'
> or 'wrong' opinion here.
>
> Best regards,
>
> Phsst
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Phsst,
> > Of course vix is totally unreliable !!
> > Try to define what is this "low" [a definition valid for 2-3
years]
> > and you will see !!
> > Back in the happy march 2002, an 20 was the superb "low" for VIX
[or
> > better ^VXO].
> > Now, the ^VXO is below 20 the last 6 months or so !!!
> > What was the "low" among all these lows ???
> > Do you remember the great Nov3, 2003 low at 16.72 ???
> > Many VXO followers were speaking for the great signal, but, since
> > then, the market gained another 100 points.
> > Then it came the lowest low of Dec17, 2003 with VXO at 15 this
time.
> > But, the market gained another 150 units and so on.
> > VXO "lows" reminds me Sergei Bubka records, the end of successive
> > highs was only the end of the great Sergei career.
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> > > <I think the market got a curve ball (baseball pitch that
doesn't
> > fly
> > > straight) from the Fed.>
> > >
> > > Three months from now when we have all but forgotten what the
Fed
> > did
> > > on Monday, we will look back at the charts and notice the low
VIX
> > > number prior to the selloff.
> > >
> > > Some of us will then say Damn... shoulda, woulda, coulda.!
> > > Others will say Damn that VIX is unreliable!
> > >
> > > he he he...
> > >
> > > Phsst
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > Hi DIMITRIS,
> > > >
> > > > Thursday, January 29, 2004, 4:10:46 PM, you wrote:
> > > >
> > > > DT> Yuki, I wish you luck !! As you see, the market is prompt
> > enough
> > > > DT> to pay for the multiple divergence.
> > > >
> > > > I really disagree, but we'll never know. I think the market
got a
> > > > curve ball (baseball pitch that doesn't fly straight) from
the
> > Fed.
> > > > If the Fed had not surprised, US would have been up today,
and so
> > > > would we. I suspect US will be up tonight, be we'll see.
> > > >
> > > > In any case, we closed very strong, almost getting back
> > everything on
> > > > the futures, which closed on the high. The Fed comments mean
> > little,
> > > > and the only negative for us is that there will NOT be
tightening
> > in
> > > > the near future, leaving the yen to appreciate more.
> > > >
> > > > This time, I will say the multiple divergence got a gift.
^^_^^
> > > >
> > > > In any case, you have to fade an overreaction by the market.
If
> > you
> > > > don't, you are left to play the same reaction the crowd
plays.
> > That
> > > > is usually a mistake.
> > > >
> > > > We shall see. ^_-
> > > >
> > > > Yuki
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