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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Franco Gornati <francogornati@xxxx>
wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS on 15/11/2003, 17.34.12 +0100 you wrote:
>
> > Your text is an excellent presentation of "trading T/A before T/A
> > signals", very interesting but a bit dangerous for people who dont
> > even know Dylan. Your H&S was blowing in the wind, I'm afraid you
> > were the only person who walked on this side [not to mention
> > the "walk on the wild side" here] and I'm more than happy you
pocket
> > the results.
>
> Almost every TA text describes Yuki's trading approach to H&S. It's
usually labeled as 'aggressive trader' approach to H&S. Then there
is 'sure thing trader' approach and even 'late comer' approach.
> Surely it can't be mechanized in a simple rule that, btw, it's
known to be non-effective.
> --
> Franco
Franko,
The "aggressive trader" approach, if we speak for the [weak] H&S
formations, is statistically wrong [if not catastrophic].
The same H&S pattern, with the same per=3, occurred many times in the
past history of the same ^N225, but, unfortunately, without the same
results, even when they were fully formatted. If you examine the not-
yet-H&S, then you will crash again and again with the almost-always-
tricky last leg.
When the statistics is not on your side, then the decision is not due
the the H&S pattern.[10 or 100 other important reasons but not H&S].
Simply go back to the beginning of this year :The first 5 ^N225
trading bars, you are in front of a bullish inverted H&S and a
simultaneous bearish H&S [both fully formated]!!!
What would you do then, no matter if you belong to the 'aggressive
trader' or the 'sure thing trader' or even the 'late comer'
approach ??
It is nice to explain *after* the movement, but it is useless for our
next *unknown* movements, if the statistical confirmation is poor.
For your further analysis, I may provide you with the Historical H&S
code [similar to the Historical trendlines already posted here] to
see the severe reality of the past right on your amibroker screen.
Just let me know if you are interested...
Dimitris Tsokakis
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