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Hi DT,
Monday, November 17, 2003, 5:44:14 PM, you wrote:
DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Franco Gornati <francogornati@xxxx>
DT> wrote:
>> Hi DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS on 15/11/2003, 17.34.12 +0100 you wrote:
>>
>> > Your text is an excellent presentation of "trading T/A before T/A
>> > signals", very interesting but a bit dangerous for people who dont
>> > even know Dylan. Your H&S was blowing in the wind, I'm afraid you
>> > were the only person who walked on this side [not to mention
>> > the "walk on the wild side" here] and I'm more than happy you
DT> pocket
>> > the results.
>>
>> Almost every TA text describes Yuki's trading approach to H&S. It's
DT> usually labeled as 'aggressive trader' approach to H&S. Then there
DT> is 'sure thing trader' approach and even 'late comer' approach.
>> Surely it can't be mechanized in a simple rule that, btw, it's
DT> known to be non-effective.
>> --
>> Franco
DT> Franko,
DT> The "aggressive trader" approach, if we speak for the [weak] H&S
DT> formations, is statistically wrong [if not catastrophic].
I really don't understand all the static I'm getting on this. Let me
refresh your memory:
1) I anticipated a right shoulder formation. This is NOT to say that
I anticipated it would end up being a valid H&S, and that it
signalled a sure top, but that I anticipated the possibility of such.
For God's sake, if I had anticipated the whole thing, I would be
laughing to death today, raking in HUGE short profits from positions
I put on Friday, or from the positions I covered Tuesday that in
retrospect were a mistake. I DID NOT RE-SHORT Friday. I was flat.
Shame on me, but I expected just a bit more trouble with the neckline
than we got.
2) Moreover, I traded IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND, as the
right shoulder formed at first. Then, I took profits. Then I WAITED
as the formation rolled over, and entered shorts last Monday on
signals.
Catastrophic? Okay. ^^_^^
DT> The same H&S pattern, with the same per=3, occurred many times in the
DT> past history of the same ^N225, but, unfortunately, without the same
DT> results, even when they were fully formatted. If you examine the not-
DT> yet-H&S, then you will crash again and again with the almost-always-
DT> tricky last leg.
When you see this type of formation, it is a topping formation. It
has been a topping formation for the nearly 35 years I have been
trading. I used to buy them long and get killed many decades ago. I
play them correctly now. They fail. They fail, they fail, they
fail. They may well come back, but they fail first, and I think the
statistics would bear me out, but I am not prepared to offer
mathematical proof that would stand up on this board. ^_^
DT> When the statistics is not on your side, then the decision is not due
DT> the the H&S pattern.[10 or 100 other important reasons but not H&S].
DT> Simply go back to the beginning of this year :The first 5 ^N225
DT> trading bars, you are in front of a bullish inverted H&S and a
DT> simultaneous bearish H&S [both fully formated]!!!
I'm sorry, but are you talking about this year? If so, that is
perhaps the ugliest inverted H&S I've ever seen. ^^_^^ In fact, I
don't even really see it. The beginning of this year (and the end of
last year) look like sideways mush to me.
DT> What would you do then, no matter if you belong to the 'aggressive
DT> trader' or the 'sure thing trader' or even the 'late comer'
DT> approach ??
Well, you simply manage your trades, and not all of them are going to
be winners, for sure. I can't believe I'm explaining that you *you*,
DT. ^^_^^
Yuki
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