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Hi Bob,
Monday, November 17, 2003, 3:23:01 PM, you wrote:
BJ> Wow, Yuki, I'm glad I asked 8>). I'm enthralled by your running
BJ> commentary thru the Monday AM close and will take to heart
BJ> "Eventually you get a good scare, and we all are due for one I
BJ> think."
Wait until you see the cash close. And if that don't scare ya, try
the ^225 futures close. ^^_^^ (It was 9740, one tick off the 9730
low -- minus 400 and change.)
Of course they could run it the other way tomorrow early, esp. if the
US opens sick (it will) and recovers by the end (who knows?). But
I'll tell ya some people got wake up calls (along with their margin
calls) today.
I did a little scalping on the short side, very nicely -- intraday --
in the PM session. I got flat at the close -- I had only one short
signal trigger, but the trigger price was flat on the (rising) 200
SMA, and I won't play that short at this point in time. If they take
it lower, fine. I'm waiting in the wings with cash. ^_-
The Osaka Boyz (^225 futures trade in Osaka) were just standing on
the margined long air hose today, and they would not step off. Every
slight rally was hit, and it did not matter the size of the bid. We
have a 10 minute futures session after the 3 pm close, and they took
out a huge bid at 9750 (and a backup at 9740) that had been the low
during the PM session. Tomorrow is another day, of course.
One fundamental comment here:
Our 3Q GDP numbers came out last week, and the headline was 2.2
percent growth annualized for the quarter. But this hides some key
information, I think. They are using a price deflator to adjust for
deflation here, and it is pumping up the GDP figures. Remove the
price deflator, and 3Q GDP was absolutely flat. Now I am not
educationally prepared to argue whether this price deflator is
completely valid or not, but our government is kind of famous for
cooking the national books when it suits their interest.
Yuki
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