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DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS wrote:
> When the statistics is not on your side, then the decision is not due
> the the H&S pattern.[10 or 100 other important reasons but not H&S].
Dimitris, sorry for the delay of the answer. I don't know exactly the
statistics you employ here but, on the methodological ground, you should
make them conditional on the information available.
If you are going to assign a probability to an event you shouldn't drop
bit of information. Counting the number of times something has happened
is only a part of the information available.
TA patterns (per se) are useless. For example, when we talk of inversion
H&S we are talking of a subset of all H&S. H&S for their very
configuration are likely to be found at inversion point (just as
divergences). But, think, I just discovered somewhere on the Internet
that also a H&S of continuation exist. Yes. They have exhausted every
possible world.
That's why I said that the simple mechanical H&S strategy is a poor
strategy.
But if you have additional information, and Yuki amply provided it, that
you can synthesize in a coherent forecast and you gauge its
probabilities (that are *always* subjective) positive for your setup,
then you go for the trade.
Anyway, the only existence of a H&S configuration is not sufficient
reason to take that trade.
> For your further analysis, I may provide you with the Historical H&S
> code [similar to the Historical trendlines already posted here] to
> see the severe reality of the past right on your amibroker screen.
> Just let me know if you are interested...
It would be nice.
Take care,
Franco
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