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Now,
wait just a minute!
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As
Groucho Marx used to say: "I refuse to join any group that would have me as a
member"!
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A
proud non AARP member!
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Phsst
[mailto:phsst@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Saturday, November 15, 2003 12:22
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re:
Trading mutual funds...Geez Fred,I would have
given odds that you were card carrying member of AARP.But since you're
not, I guarantee that AARP is anxiously awaiting thearrival of a
curmudgeonly member such as yourself <g>.Dingo & I will be
awaiting your arrival!Phsst--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:> There are "old timers" and then
there are old "timers" ... I wrote it > before I realized the
pun. No shame. I can't do AARP yet either > even though
they've been sending me stuff since I was 12. I knew and >
understood the issues regarding the -1x -2x funds but was unaware >
that there were Fido sectors that could be shorted. Never-the-less I
> think all would agree that out of the 6-8000 mf's that are out there
> that it is at most 1-2% that have this orientation. It would be
> great if they ALL could be shorted directly but I think this is some
> how un-American as "timing" of mf's has become.> > As
far as contributing code goes, post what you want. Frankly I >
could think of nothing better than this board becoming more FT-Like >
in this regard.> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bruce1r"
<brucer@xxxx> wrote:> > Fred -> > > >
Before I post the next chapter, I'd like to add a couple is > >
additional notes to this thread on shorting.> > > > Just
FYI, there are about 10 Fidelity select funds that can be > >
shorted. But, most people look at going "short" funds as playing
> the > > Rydex, Profunds, or Potomac short index
funds. There is a subtle > > difference in these though, from
going short. They mirror a > multiple > > (-1x, -2x) of
the daily rate of change of an index. This is > > different
from an actual short, where you margin percentage (and > > therefore
your effective leverage) changes over time value of the > >
fund.> > > > P.S. Fred - you are going to shame me into
posting AB versions of > > some signals just to avoid being called
an "old timer". BTW, I > don't > > have an AARP card
yet!> > > > > > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:> >
> I thought that's what I said, but last I looked these were pretty
> > > much limited to inverses of an index as opposed to being
mirrors > of > > a > > > lot of other
stuff.> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"areehoi" <hoierman@xxxx> wrote:> > > > Fred &
All:> > > > Rydex and Pro Funds have Short funds that you can
play the same > > as a> > > > short. You can
switch between there long and short funds on a > > daily>
> > > basis.> > > > > > > > Dick
H.> > > > > > > > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:> >
> > > You can not short mutual funds, but there are some index
> > oriented > > > > > funds typically based on
SPX / NDX / RUT that are built to > > track > > > >
> inversely from the indexes themselves. So the purchase of >
> these > > > > > would equate roughly to the shorting
of the index.> > > > > > > > > > Someone
will undoubtedly come along and slap me upside the > head > >
> for > > > > > saying this but imho the short side of
the market is more > > > difficult > > > > >
to play than the long side. There are several reasons for > this
> > > not > > > > > the least of which is that
if for no other reason than > > inflation > > > the
> > > > > bias of the market is from a very long term
perspective, up. > > If > > > one > >
> > > were to look at how many up days there were versus how many
> > down > > > days > > > > > one
would see that over a very long period of time that the > > ratio
> > > is > > > > > about 60/40. This is
easy to see when looking at long term > > > charts as >
> > > > the character of bull markts is differnet then that of
bears, > > > where > > > > > the former has a
tendancy to take a lot longer to move a > > similar > >
> > > distance then the latter when one is looking at environments
> > that > > > are > > > > > of
equal degree.> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jtelang"
<jtelang@xxxx> > > wrote:> > > > > >
Fred,> > > > > > > > > > > > From
this, do I understand it correctly that one can't go> > > >
> > short on MF's? Why would one be sitting on cash otherwise?>
> > > > > Or may be I'm not following what you said
below...> > > > > > > > > > > >
Jitu> > > > > > > > > > > > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> > >
wrote:> > > > > > > One other note regarding short
term trading ... There are > > of > > > > >
course > > > > > > > ways to accomplish the same
thing with out actually > taking > > > the > >
> > > > short > > > > > > > term trades
i.e. by hedging using a bear oriented fund > > > leaving >
> > > > you > > > > > > > more or less
market neutral during the period of time > when > > > you
> > > > > > would > > > > > > >
have been sitting in cash.> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred"
<fctonetti@xxxx> > > > wrote:> > > > >
> > > See below ...> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Chuck Rademacher" > > > > > > > >
<chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:> > > > > > > >
> Maybe some of you guys (and gals) who trade mutual > > funds
> > > can > > > > > > > answer >
> > > > > > > a couple> > > > > >
> > > of questions?> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 1. If there's no money
to be made in (rotational > > trading > > > of)
> > > > > > > > ETF's, am I> > > >
> > > > > correct when I assume that there's no money to be
> made > > in > > > the > > > >
> > > Rydex-> > > > > > > > like>
> > > > > > > > funds that only mimic an
index?> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > Rydex's funds
are pretty much either index or sector > > > oriented.
> > > > > > > This > > > > > >
> > is not the kind of thing I personally like to trade. >
But > > > for > > > > > > > example
> > > > > > > > if you have a system that trades
SPX, NDX or RUT well > or > > is > > > > >
good > > > > > > at > > > > > >
> > jumping on the sector that's likely to be hot next as > >
> opposed > > > > > to > > > > > >
> the > > > > > > > > one that just was then it
would certainly work in this > > > scenario.> > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
2. Based on current rules and redemption penalties, > > >
which > > > > > > > families > > > >
> > > > of> > > > > > > > > mutual
funds can you recommend for rotational trading?> > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > I don't personally trade on what one would
consider to > be > > a > > > > > > >
> rotational basis. As I and Ken stated, erf's or the > >
funds > > > > > > > management > > >
> > > > > policies will eventually weed out most if not all the
> > short > > > > > term > > > >
> > > > traders, especially the ones with large dollars. So
if > > you > > > are > > > > > >
> > looking to trade mf's with some sort of short term > >
oriented > > > > > > > > rotational system as
opposed to one that trades on an > > > > > >
intermediate > > > > > > > > basis picking good
candidates at the beginning of a > > market > > > buy
> > > > > > and > > > > > > >
> for the most part holding them until a market sell then > > you
> > > are > > > > > > > going >
> > > > > > > to find yourself pretty much limited to
Rydex, ProFunds > & > > > > > Potomac.>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> 3. If most (or all) such families of funds charge > >
early > > > > > > > redemption > > >
> > > > > fees, is> > > > > > > >
> it safe to assume that you are trading these mid to > > long
> > > term?> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > There's no sense in me
working on a system that > appears > > > to do >
> > > > > > well, > > > > > > >
> only to> > > > > > > > > find that
redemption fees are going to kill me. Or, > > is
> > > it > > > > > > > > possible
that> > > > > > > > > there's enough money to
be made that the fees are of > > > little > > > >
> > > > consequence?> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > Most do NOT yet charge erf's and as you can see from >
> prior > > > > > posts > > > > >
> > it's > > > > > > > > debatable as to
whether or not they will and if so what > > the > > >
> > > minimum > > > > > > > > holding
periods will be to trigger those. For short > term > >
> > > > oriented > > > > > > > >
traders adding a 1-2% erf in a 7-14 day period would be > > >
enough > > > > > to > > > > > > >
> send them elsewhere or to a different methodology. > What
> > > the > > > > > SEC > > >
> > > or > > > > > > > > the fund
companies themselves will do with this remains > > to > >
> be > > > > > > > seen. > > >
> > > > > They really can't afford to be too outrageous with it
> as > > > every > > > > > > >
> 401k/IRA/VA account holder on the planet will be > > screaming
> > > > > bloody > > > > > > >
> murder.> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > Out of all of the above, I'm really interested
in > some > > > > > > > > recommendations
on> > > > > > > > > mutual fund families to
trade. I can then go do my > own > > > > >
> > > investigation as to> > > > > > > >
> their fees, etc and devise my own systems that will > > work
> > > with > > > > > > > those >
> > > > > > > fees.> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > I wouldn't think families as there is no real reason to
> > > just > > > > > like > > >
> > > > > there is no real reason to arbitrarilly limit ones
> > trading > > > in > > > > > >
> stocks > > > > > > > > to some specific group
based on whatever.> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ThanksSend
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