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Geez Fred,
I would have given odds that you were card carrying member of AARP.
But since you're not, I guarantee that AARP is anxiously awaiting the
arrival of a curmudgeonly member such as yourself <g>.
Dingo & I will be awaiting your arrival!
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> There are "old timers" and then there are old "timers" ... I wrote it
> before I realized the pun. No shame. I can't do AARP yet either
> even though they've been sending me stuff since I was 12. I knew and
> understood the issues regarding the -1x -2x funds but was unaware
> that there were Fido sectors that could be shorted. Never-the-less I
> think all would agree that out of the 6-8000 mf's that are out there
> that it is at most 1-2% that have this orientation. It would be
> great if they ALL could be shorted directly but I think this is some
> how un-American as "timing" of mf's has become.
>
> As far as contributing code goes, post what you want. Frankly I
> could think of nothing better than this board becoming more FT-Like
> in this regard.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bruce1r" <brucer@xxxx> wrote:
> > Fred -
> >
> > Before I post the next chapter, I'd like to add a couple is
> > additional notes to this thread on shorting.
> >
> > Just FYI, there are about 10 Fidelity select funds that can be
> > shorted. But, most people look at going "short" funds as playing
> the
> > Rydex, Profunds, or Potomac short index funds. There is a subtle
> > difference in these though, from going short. They mirror a
> multiple
> > (-1x, -2x) of the daily rate of change of an index. This is
> > different from an actual short, where you margin percentage (and
> > therefore your effective leverage) changes over time value of the
> > fund.
> >
> > P.S. Fred - you are going to shame me into posting AB versions of
> > some signals just to avoid being called an "old timer". BTW, I
> don't
> > have an AARP card yet!
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > I thought that's what I said, but last I looked these were pretty
> > > much limited to inverses of an index as opposed to being mirrors
> of
> > a
> > > lot of other stuff.
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "areehoi" <hoierman@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Fred & All:
> > > > Rydex and Pro Funds have Short funds that you can play the same
> > as a
> > > > short. You can switch between there long and short funds on a
> > daily
> > > > basis.
> > > >
> > > > Dick H.
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > You can not short mutual funds, but there are some index
> > oriented
> > > > > funds typically based on SPX / NDX / RUT that are built to
> > track
> > > > > inversely from the indexes themselves. So the purchase of
> > these
> > > > > would equate roughly to the shorting of the index.
> > > > >
> > > > > Someone will undoubtedly come along and slap me upside the
> head
> > > for
> > > > > saying this but imho the short side of the market is more
> > > difficult
> > > > > to play than the long side. There are several reasons for
> this
> > > not
> > > > > the least of which is that if for no other reason than
> > inflation
> > > the
> > > > > bias of the market is from a very long term perspective, up.
> > If
> > > one
> > > > > were to look at how many up days there were versus how many
> > down
> > > days
> > > > > one would see that over a very long period of time that the
> > ratio
> > > is
> > > > > about 60/40. This is easy to see when looking at long term
> > > charts as
> > > > > the character of bull markts is differnet then that of bears,
> > > where
> > > > > the former has a tendancy to take a lot longer to move a
> > similar
> > > > > distance then the latter when one is looking at environments
> > that
> > > are
> > > > > of equal degree.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jtelang" <jtelang@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > Fred,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > From this, do I understand it correctly that one can't go
> > > > > > short on MF's? Why would one be sitting on cash otherwise?
> > > > > > Or may be I'm not following what you said below...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Jitu
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > > One other note regarding short term trading ... There are
> > of
> > > > > course
> > > > > > > ways to accomplish the same thing with out actually
> taking
> > > the
> > > > > > short
> > > > > > > term trades i.e. by hedging using a bear oriented fund
> > > leaving
> > > > > you
> > > > > > > more or less market neutral during the period of time
> when
> > > you
> > > > > > would
> > > > > > > have been sitting in cash.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > See below ...
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher"
> > > > > > > > <chuck_rademacher@x> wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Maybe some of you guys (and gals) who trade mutual
> > funds
> > > can
> > > > > > > answer
> > > > > > > > a couple
> > > > > > > > > of questions?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 1. If there's no money to be made in (rotational
> > trading
> > > of)
> > > > > > > > ETF's, am I
> > > > > > > > > correct when I assume that there's no money to be
> made
> > in
> > > the
> > > > > > > Rydex-
> > > > > > > > like
> > > > > > > > > funds that only mimic an index?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Rydex's funds are pretty much either index or sector
> > > oriented.
> > > > > > > This
> > > > > > > > is not the kind of thing I personally like to trade.
> But
> > > for
> > > > > > > example
> > > > > > > > if you have a system that trades SPX, NDX or RUT well
> or
> > is
> > > > > good
> > > > > > at
> > > > > > > > jumping on the sector that's likely to be hot next as
> > > opposed
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > one that just was then it would certainly work in this
> > > scenario.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 2. Based on current rules and redemption penalties,
> > > which
> > > > > > > families
> > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > mutual funds can you recommend for rotational trading?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I don't personally trade on what one would consider to
> be
> > a
> > > > > > > > rotational basis. As I and Ken stated, erf's or the
> > funds
> > > > > > > management
> > > > > > > > policies will eventually weed out most if not all the
> > short
> > > > > term
> > > > > > > > traders, especially the ones with large dollars. So if
> > you
> > > are
> > > > > > > > looking to trade mf's with some sort of short term
> > oriented
> > > > > > > > rotational system as opposed to one that trades on an
> > > > > > intermediate
> > > > > > > > basis picking good candidates at the beginning of a
> > market
> > > buy
> > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > for the most part holding them until a market sell then
> > you
> > > are
> > > > > > > going
> > > > > > > > to find yourself pretty much limited to Rydex, ProFunds
> &
> > > > > Potomac.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 3. If most (or all) such families of funds charge
> > early
> > > > > > > redemption
> > > > > > > > fees, is
> > > > > > > > > it safe to assume that you are trading these mid to
> > long
> > > term?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > There's no sense in me working on a system that
> appears
> > > to do
> > > > > > > well,
> > > > > > > > only to
> > > > > > > > > find that redemption fees are going to kill me. Or,
> > is
> > > it
> > > > > > > > possible that
> > > > > > > > > there's enough money to be made that the fees are of
> > > little
> > > > > > > > consequence?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Most do NOT yet charge erf's and as you can see from
> > prior
> > > > > posts
> > > > > > > it's
> > > > > > > > debatable as to whether or not they will and if so what
> > the
> > > > > > minimum
> > > > > > > > holding periods will be to trigger those. For short
> term
> > > > > > oriented
> > > > > > > > traders adding a 1-2% erf in a 7-14 day period would be
> > > enough
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > > send them elsewhere or to a different methodology.
> What
> > > the
> > > > > SEC
> > > > > > or
> > > > > > > > the fund companies themselves will do with this remains
> > to
> > > be
> > > > > > > seen.
> > > > > > > > They really can't afford to be too outrageous with it
> as
> > > every
> > > > > > > > 401k/IRA/VA account holder on the planet will be
> > screaming
> > > > > bloody
> > > > > > > > murder.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Out of all of the above, I'm really interested in
> some
> > > > > > > > recommendations on
> > > > > > > > > mutual fund families to trade. I can then go do my
> own
> > > > > > > > investigation as to
> > > > > > > > > their fees, etc and devise my own systems that will
> > work
> > > with
> > > > > > > those
> > > > > > > > fees.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I wouldn't think families as there is no real reason to
> > > just
> > > > > like
> > > > > > > > there is no real reason to arbitrarilly limit ones
> > trading
> > > in
> > > > > > > stocks
> > > > > > > > to some specific group based on whatever.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Thanks
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