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Welcome to the "older and dumber" club. We always need young blood.
By market timers are you asking about market timing services or market timing techniques? In either case, I do not use any services, reflecting a distorted, independent personality that does not adjust easily to "follow the leader." I do, however, rely heavily on graphic studies with confirmation from trend-following and momentum indicators. Except for parameter adjustment, these studies do not change as a function of time frame. I use my Ouija board to fill in the gaps that are always present with any approach. Nosystems at all. In that regard, I have been brainwashed, or at least nearly so, by Bob Miner of Dynamic Trader book fame, and eschew systems. Minerrecently published the attached article about system trading, presented inhis usual no nonsense style that I find very refreshing.
Like you I have been around many corners in my trading "career" until landing on my present approach. There is no single way to skin this cat - no right or wrong way. Each has to find the way that is comfortable. But whatever route one chooses, an essential part of the discipline is money management. Without that you are lost, irrespective of the methodology used. However, with it plus a reasonable approach to entry and exit decisions one can do OK.
We are also similar in terms of our trading vehicles. Like you I use a number of no-load funds, including highly leveraged ones. To do so, I primarily analyze indices. I also trade indices or related issues (e.g., QQQ), usually in a derivative form (options and futures). I find that this works for me, permitting my time to be spent analyzing a limited number of issuesin depth by my methodology, which produces a level of confidence that I think one should have for trading purposes.
Or so it seems to this ole curmudgeon.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: Dr. S. Nathan Berger
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 10:02 AM
Subject: [amibroker] The Holy Grail of Market Timers
Hi, everyone
When I was younger and smarter, I would look at my charts (hand drawn,
pre-computer) and see patterns suggesting the markets were going to rise or
fall, and would buy or sell accordingly. Now that I am older and dumber, I
have come to rely more and more on some sort of graph, index, or system
which magically points out for me the markets are getting ready to reverse:>))
Humor aside, would it be possible to run a "poll", a sort of consensus
regarding preferred market timers?
In browsing other websites, chat rooms and the like, there seems to be no
end of indicies used for this purpose, but frankly, our group is as smart
and sophisticated as any other out there! I would like to know what our
brains are using.
For myself, I now trade only no-load mutual funds, so the timing systems
used for trading futures, etc. are of lesser interest. Can we please have
some input for general market timers?
Best to all,
Nate
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<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Nate:</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Welcome to the "older and dumber" club. We
always need young blood.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>By market timers are you asking about market timing
services or market timing techniques? In either case, I do not use any
services, reflecting a distorted, independent personality that does not
adjust easily to "follow the leader." I do, however, rely heavily on
graphic studies with confirmation from trend-following and momentum
indicators. Except for parameter adjustment, these studies do not change
as a function of time frame. I use my Ouija board to fill in thegaps
that are always present with any approach. No systems at all. In
that regard, I have been brainwashed, or at least nearly so, by Bob Miner of
Dynamic Trader book fame, and eschew systems. Miner recently published the
attached article about system trading, presented in his usual no nonsense
style that I find very refreshing.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Like you I have been around many corners in my trading
"career" until landing on my present approach. There is no single wayto
skin this cat - no right or wrong way. Each has to find the way that is
comfortable. But whatever route one chooses, an essential part of the
discipline is money management. Without that you are lost, irrespective of
the methodology used. However, with it plus a reasonable approach to entry
and exit decisions one can do OK.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>We are also similar in terms of our trading
vehicles. Like you I use a number of no-load funds, including highly
leveraged ones. To do so, I primarily analyze indices. I also trade
indices or related issues (e.g., QQQ), usually in a derivative form (options and
futures). I find that this works for me, permitting my time to be
spent analyzing a limited number of issues in depth by my methodology, which
produces a level of confidence that I think one should have for trading
purposes.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Or so it seems to this ole
curmudgeon.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Bill</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=snberger@xxxx href="mailto:snberger@xxxx";>Dr. S.
Nathan Berger</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, July 28, 2001 10:02
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [amibroker] The Holy Grail of
Market Timers</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><TT>Hi, everyone<BR><BR>When I was younger and smarter, I would
look at my charts (hand drawn,<BR>pre-computer) and see patterns suggesting
the markets were going to rise or<BR>fall, and would buy or sell accordingly.
Now that I am older and dumber, I<BR>have come to rely more and more on some
sort of graph, index, or system<BR>which magically points out for me the
markets are getting ready to reverse:>))<BR><BR>Humor aside, would it be
possible to run a "poll", a sort of consensus<BR>regarding preferred market
timers?<BR>In browsing other websites, chat rooms and the like, there seems to
be no<BR>end of indicies used for this purpose, but frankly, our group isas
smart<BR>and sophisticated as any other out there! I would like to know what
our<BR>brains are using.<BR><BR>For myself, I now trade only no-load mutual
funds, so the timing systems<BR>used for trading futures, etc. are of
lesser interest. Can we please have<BR>some input for general market
timers?<BR><BR>Best to all,<BR><BR>Nate<BR><BR></TT><BR><BR><TT>Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service</A>.</TT>
<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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