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Bill;
I would like to thank you for your response. As I am new to Amibroker
and AFL coding, I have not had the time to fully explore the power of
the program.
I would like to say that the power of the group is amazing. Your
comments and suggestions were appreciated. Thank you for the help.
Don't Stop, we are here to learn from each other.
Best regards,
Anthony
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> Anthony:
>
> If you can produce the calculation for the probability cones in
Excel, why can't you plot it in Excel? I don't believe that AFL can
plot the cones at the present time. They are a standard routine in
Metastock and I have seen them produced with other software (e.g.,
Tradestation) with programs written by users. Unless you have one of
these software packages, I suspect that your best bet is to use Excel.
>
> Bill
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: ajf1111@xxxx
> To: amibroker@xxxx
> Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 12:35 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001 cotton
>
>
> Bill,
>
> Thank you for your link and response, yes I have done it in excel,
> but, My spreadsheets produce numbers only, I do not produce the
> probability cone as shown at the link address.
>
> I am just getting familiar with AFL code, If you know how to
produce
> the probability cone in AFL code as shown at the link address,
please
> submit.
>
> Also, If you know how to produce the study / exploration as
previously
> described, your help would be greatly appreciated.
>
> also, thank you for the link to the pattern software.
>
> best regards
> Anthony
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> > Anthony:
> >
> > If you can calculate the probability with Excel, why can't you
do so
> with AFL? Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS probability
cones,
> which is summarized below?
> > "ODDS Probability Cones (which are greatly influenced by recent
> price volatility) provide you with a visual guide to the most
> probable range of future prices. This range (i.e. the cone's
width) is
> determined by recent volatility in prices, the number of time
periods
> projected, and the probability percentage (e.g., 68% confidence,
90%
> confidence, etc.). The more volatile the security prices, the
wider
> the expected range of future prices and hence the wider the cones.
The
> cones always widen from the apex even if recent volatility is very
> low, because as time increases, the better the odds of a
significant
> price move." From
>
http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds
> .asp.
> >
> > Bill
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: ajf1111@xxxx
> > To: amibroker@xxxx
> > Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25 PM
> > Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton
> >
> >
> > Dimitri;
> >
> > Thank you for your response to explorations. The study that I
am
> > trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as
commodities.
> >
> > Along with a visual confirmation as to bullish or bearish a
> market, I
> > also try to quantify market direction with several indicators
> > confirming.
> >
> > To that end, one of my confirming studies deals with
> probabilities.
> > I have created several spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97,
which
> allow
> > me to find the standard deviation, Historical Volatility, and
> > Probability of market movement. By using these measurements
and
> time,
> > I am able to determine what is the Probability of a target
price
> to be
> > acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%).
> >
> > If you would like me to upload a copy of this spreadsheet. Let
me
> > Know.
> >
> > Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not handle this
> type of
> > study.
> >
> > A sample report of this type of study might look like this;
> >
> > testing data: 90 days of history
> > test 1: If Friday's close > Thursday's close
> > Monday's close: higher-- 11
> > lower -- 1
> > test 2: If Friday's close < Thursday's close
> > Monday's close: higher-- 11
> > lower -- 1
> > test 3: If Friday's close = Thursday's close
> > Monday's close: higher-- 11
> > lower -- 1
> >
> > As you can see with this type of test, there is a 90% chance
of
> > Monday's close being higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual
> > confirmation (technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators
are
> > bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.
> >
> > If you Know of a program that can produce this type of study,
> please
> > let me know.
> >
> > Again, thank you,
> > Anthony
> >
> >
> >
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