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I agree with everything you say below Ira.
For the record, I am currently at 80% cash with one tech stock shorted
and all longs are
in bio tech and metals. In your other post, you make some
very convincing arguments that
we are topping out and even though I am obviously a fundamental trader
rather than a technical
trader, I recognize the danger of being long when so many traders will be
selling into strength.
I do take issue with your jobs picture or at least part of it as taking
out those who do not seek
and will not accept any job, only makes sense. The manufacturing
sector has moved a large
percentage of their factories over seas and will continue to do so as
long as unions hold sway
over their operations. When an employee feels he/she works for the
union rather than their
employer, quality workmanship is going to be hard to come by. I
actually considered that the
strike by Northwest mechanics might signal an end to union power in
America but that may now
take a little longer than expected and a greater loss of manufacturing
jobs with it. American
business can simply not afford to provide free health care and life long
retirement to its workers
and be competitive in a world market place.
When I married my wife in 1963, we saved for three years to buy a color
television. We saved
for a home down payment and we drove ten year old automobiles. We
had no boats or Skidoos
or snow mobiles or other luxury items and we owed no one except for our
mortgage. Today, our
young people *expect* to have all these things and have them
immediately. As you said, savings
is a foreign word to people and waiting for "toys" is unheard
of. Eventually, there will be a "price"
to be paid for such attitudes and I agree that we are getting closer and
closer to the due date.
Thanks to all who have expressed their opinions recently and let's all
stay mobile and quick to
adjust to what the markets tell us.
Bob
At 07:26 AM 3/4/2006 -0800, you wrote:
It is not
about being right or wrong, it is about making money. You can
change the trend any time you want to just by changing time frames.
You can have a down move within an up or an up move within a down
move. When someone states the top is in and doesn't give a
time frame or a reference you have to consider the fact that it is the
time frame that he is trading. Then it is your responsibility to go
over you charts with your system and see if it agrees with the
information received.
I have read Ben's posts for years and when I
disagreed I would post my opinion, as that was all it would
be. It would be based upon what I saw on my charts using the system
that I use. Ten different people can look at the same set of charts
and come up with 10 different answers. It appears from your post
that you are a long term trader and are holding onto your long
positions. Someone else could have been trading the oscillations of
the Dow, Russell or any other index and made a lot of money trading both
the up and down moves in the market. Ben has called tops and
bottoms for years as have many others. All their posts do is make
me aware that there might be some value to their post or
observations. Then it is my responsibility to do my own
homework. The posts also bring my attention to items that I might
not be trading, but could be a new profit center. The NYA hit a new
high and how many stocks hit new lows at the same time. So to be
blindly long or short in anything is an error. To feel that the
Market, which ever index you feel is the market, will carry a stock,
option or future position can be disastrous. If you are trading the
indexes themselves, then that is fine, but it is not applicable to every
trader.
If you have a question, ask it and I am sure
that Ben or anyone else will be more then glad to answer. If you
disagree, that is fine. Just give your reply as you did
below. It doesn't have to be sarcastic, or ridiculing. A
constructive reply can help everyone.
To disagree is one thing to ridicule and deride
is something entirely different.
Just one mans' opinion. Ira.
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