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First, it wasn't ridicule. Second, the
problem with these forums is you can't challenge anything or anyone without
being accused of ridicule (or censored or kicked out).....the scourge of
political correctness.
I'm sorry but I guess I don't see the value
in saying a market may go up or it may go down, and it will do that
over the course of the next 2-4 days. As for 1300, the S&P has been
range bound for months with 1300 (futures) marking the top of the range, so
where the h-ll else is it going to go if it goes up???
For the better part of the past 18 months Ben and
others have been calling a top and warning us to liquidate our
holdings, and depending on the index of your choosing they've continued to
rally from 10-20%+. If you call a top after every big down day during an
uptrend you will be eventually be right but you'll also be broke if you trade
that opinion. I don't believe Ben is broke and I don't believe he marries
his opinions - I believe he adapts when they are wrong which for all of us is
more often than not. I was just commenting on his post which made no sense
to me.
The funny thing about all this is that I agree
with their assessment and have for the same length of time, and I've been wrong
too. And I still think the stock market(s) are a huge accident
waiting to happen. But over the years I've learned not to trade my
opinion because opinions & forecasts play no role in trading - unless you
want to lose. As for which side owns time, my fills are based on
Price and as long as that's the case I'm going to trade Price.
Is this time different though? Maybe.
The indexes have been range hopping for a very long time.....we churn endlessly
for months and then over the course of a few days we move to a new range
and resume the churning. But if you look at a Dow chart you can see that
these ranges have been getting progressively smaller - a sign it's getting
tired? We've had more (and welcome) volatility recently which you
frequently see at a top after a long (and incredibly boring) grind
up. We've also had a number of weak closes lately which could also be a
sign that the bears are warming up. However, if you look at any of the daily/weekly/monthly charts none
of them have broken down (yet), so the trend is the trend until it isn't
even if it looks to have a foundation constructed of toothpicks.
But despite my overly bearish opinion on
the stock market(s), if the DAX sets up long Monday morning I'm going to
buy it, and if it trends higher I'll continue to buy it until it tells me to
stop even though in my view it will be "wrong" the entire time. Trading
isn't about being right, it's about winning. And the biggest challenge
isn't becoming profitable, it's staying that way. And this is the only way
I've discovered that allows you to do both.
If you choose to believe that this
is ridicule, well, that's your problem, not mine.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 12:19
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> Bob,
>
> There are many bright people on this forum and
ridicule, no matter how
> subtle or "clever", does not encourage
dialog.
>
> Dan
>
>
> >From: "Bob"
<BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >Date: Fri, 3
Mar 2006 18:38:18 -0600
> >
> >How could it have been
wrong?
> > ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: Ron Cernokus
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 4:53 PM
> >
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >
> >
> >
Here is Ben's call from last Tuesday.
> >
> >
S
> >
> >
> > volume still
points to 1300-1310 on sp500,
> > that should
be accomplished in 2-4 days,
> > if not ,all
bets are off ,and the top is in,
> >
Ben
> >
> >
> > SPONSORED LINKS Business
finance uk Business finance course Business
> >finance
online course
> >
Business finance class Small business finance Business finance
> >schools
> >
> >
>
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