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It is interesting that everyone seems concerned as
to whether the market is going up or down. Is it the end of the bull and
the start of the bear. Who really cares? Just trade it. that
is what traders do. What are the fundamentals?
We are about to enter the down side of the 4 year
cycle with lows in 94, 98, 02 and therefore we should see one at the end of 06
or the start of 07 if the economic cycle continues to hold true. As to no
inflation. The average home price in my area for January and February has
been $1.1million. Of course the same house in Texas probably runs about
$350,000. Health care, insurance, etc.are going up at a real inflationary
rate. Everyone looks to the governments figures for inflation not
realizing that they change the components at will. They say inflation is
steady and yet the cost of living keeps rising.
Remember, it is not what is actually happening that
makes the markets move. It is the perception of what should happen that
causes the price action. I don't think anyone has the time to read all the
reports. Research all the papers written or read all of the opinions of
various gurus and prognosticators and still have time to trade. The answer
is the same as in any simple crime drama. Follow the money. That is
basically what technical analysis does.
I have nothing that says lower right now, but I do
have a major high target of over 15,000 with some major resistance just below
the previous high of 11,000+. Will it get to 15,000+ or will it stop at
11,360? I really don't care. If the chart says buy that is what you
should do and if the price says sell then do that. Many times the charts
tell you to get out and do nothing, but very few people ever listen to that
scenario.
Just one man's opinion. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 7:42
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
Why do so many people on RT think we are due for a long
term down turn? I
know it has to
be at least one technical reason
but what fundamental reason is there to
believe that? The
blue
chips have an average PE of 15 .. earnings are still growing at a
healthy
rate and we
have little inflation. The country is fully employed and
oil has at least
stabilized. Do we put
our money on some chart
marks or bollinger bands or elliot waves or on
facts? My take
on
the equity markets are that they will continue to climb hesitantly up
the
"wall of worry" with
slips and stumbles along the way but belief in
a long term down trend will
have to show up
on my "facts of the
economy" list before I can join that camp.
Bob
At 08:22
AM 3/4/2006 -0500, you wrote:
> You are correct. Lets at
least wait untill he is proven wrong or right,
>before we make comments
on it. If we don't make a new high over the next
>few weeks.
He is correct. If we do make new highs. He is
wrong.
>My vote is for new highs after this probably very small
correction.
> I will say that he worded it a little supicous, but
it may have need a
>mistake.
> When someone says the top is
in but gives no time frame it does make it
>seem like there is no way
for them to be wrong.
> Does he mean the top for this week?
The top for this month?
> Or as it seems that he said. The
top is in. Meaning the bull is over with
>a bear for
years.
> Hard to know and understand when someone makes
quick statements with no
>explainations.
> But overall Ben
seems to be a good guy and helps a lot with his posts.
>
>-----
Original Message -----
>From: "Dan Harels"
<harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 1:19
AM
>Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
>
>
> >
Bob,
> >
> > There are many bright people on this forum and
ridicule, no matter how
> > subtle or "clever", does not encourage
dialog.
> >
> > Dan
> >
> >
>
>>From: "Bob" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
> >>Reply-To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>Subject: Re: [RT] mkt
outlook
> >>Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 18:38:18 -0600
>
>>
> >>How could it have been wrong?
>
>> ----- Original Message -----
> >>
From: Ron Cernokus
> >> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Sent: Friday, March
03, 2006 4:53 PM
> >> Subject: Re: [RT] mkt
outlook
> >>
> >>
> >> Here is
Ben's call from last Tuesday.
> >>
> >>
S
> >>
> >>
> >>
volume still points to 1300-1310 on sp500,
>
>> that should be accomplished in 2-4
days,
> >> if not ,all bets are off ,and
the top is in,
> >> Ben
>
>>
> >>
> >> SPONSORED LINKS
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>
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> >
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