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It is not about being right or wrong, it is about
making money. You can change the trend any time you want to just by
changing time frames. You can have a down move within an up or an up move
within a down move. When someone states the top is in and doesn't
give a time frame or a reference you have to consider the fact that it is the
time frame that he is trading. Then it is your responsibility to go over
you charts with your system and see if it agrees with the information
received.
I have read Ben's posts for years and when I
disagreed I would post my opinion, as that was all it would be. It
would be based upon what I saw on my charts using the system that I use.
Ten different people can look at the same set of charts and come up with 10
different answers. It appears from your post that you are a long term
trader and are holding onto your long positions. Someone else could have
been trading the oscillations of the Dow, Russell or any other index and made a
lot of money trading both the up and down moves in the market. Ben has
called tops and bottoms for years as have many others. All their posts do
is make me aware that there might be some value to their post or
observations. Then it is my responsibility to do my own homework.
The posts also bring my attention to items that I might not be trading, but
could be a new profit center. The NYA hit a new high and how many stocks
hit new lows at the same time. So to be blindly long or short in anything
is an error. To feel that the Market, which ever index you feel is the
market, will carry a stock, option or future position can be
disastrous. If you are trading the indexes themselves, then that is fine,
but it is not applicable to every trader.
If you have a question, ask it and I am sure that
Ben or anyone else will be more then glad to answer. If you disagree, that
is fine. Just give your reply as you did below. It doesn't have to
be sarcastic, or ridiculing. A constructive reply can help everyone.
To disagree is one thing to ridicule and deride is
something entirely different.
Just one mans' opinion. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 5:40
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
First, it wasn't ridicule.
Second, the problem with these forums is you can't challenge anything or
anyone without being accused of ridicule (or censored or kicked out).....the
scourge of political correctness.
I'm sorry but I guess I don't see the value
in saying a market may go up or it may go down, and it will do that
over the course of the next 2-4 days. As for 1300, the S&P has been
range bound for months with 1300 (futures) marking the top of the range, so
where the h-ll else is it going to go if it goes up???
For the better part of the past 18 months Ben
and others have been calling a top and warning us to liquidate our
holdings, and depending on the index of your choosing they've continued
to rally from 10-20%+. If you call a top after every big down day during
an uptrend you will be eventually be right but you'll also be broke if you
trade that opinion. I don't believe Ben is broke and I don't believe he
marries his opinions - I believe he adapts when they are wrong which for all
of us is more often than not. I was just commenting on his post which
made no sense to me.
The funny thing about all this is that I agree
with their assessment and have for the same length of time, and I've been
wrong too. And I still think the stock market(s) are a huge
accident waiting to happen. But over the years I've learned not to
trade my opinion because opinions & forecasts play no role in trading -
unless you want to lose. As for which side owns time, my fills are
based on Price and as long as that's the case I'm going to trade
Price.
Is this time different though?
Maybe. The indexes have been range hopping for a very long time.....we
churn endlessly for months and then over the course of a few days we move
to a new range and resume the churning. But if you look at a Dow chart
you can see that these ranges have been getting progressively smaller - a
sign it's getting tired? We've had more (and welcome)
volatility recently which you frequently see at a top after a long (and
incredibly boring) grind up. We've also had a number of weak closes
lately which could also be a sign that the bears are warming up.
However, if you look at any of the
daily/weekly/monthly charts none of them have broken down (yet), so the
trend is the trend until it isn't even if it looks to have a
foundation constructed of toothpicks.
But despite my overly bearish opinion on
the stock market(s), if the DAX sets up long Monday morning I'm going to
buy it, and if it trends higher I'll continue to buy it until it tells me to
stop even though in my view it will be "wrong" the entire time. Trading
isn't about being right, it's about winning. And the biggest challenge
isn't becoming profitable, it's staying that way. And this is the only
way I've discovered that allows you to do both.
If you choose to believe that this
is ridicule, well, that's your problem, not mine.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 12:19
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt
outlook
> Bob,
>
> There are many bright people on
this forum and ridicule, no matter how
> subtle or "clever", does not
encourage dialog.
>
> Dan
>
>
> >From:
"Bob" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >Date: Fri, 3
Mar 2006 18:38:18 -0600
> >
> >How could it have been
wrong?
> > ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: Ron Cernokus
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 4:53 PM
>
> Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >
>
>
> > Here is Ben's call from last Tuesday.
>
>
> > S
> >
> >
>
> volume still points to 1300-1310 on
sp500,
> > that should be accomplished in 2-4
days,
> > if not ,all bets are off ,and the
top is in,
> > Ben
> >
>
>
> > SPONSORED LINKS Business finance uk
Business finance course Business
> >finance online
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> > Business
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>schools
> >
> >
>
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