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this mkt letter also suggests 1220 is
next
USA
The week started slowly for the
S&P 500, with a false break [1] above the short-term high from last
week, followed by a weak close and increased volume signaling strong selling on
day [2]. Selling pressure abated, resulting in a new high after solid blue
candles with good volume on days [3] and [4]. An early retracement on day [5]
signals continued uncertainty. Expect a test of support at
1225/1220.
Failure of support would be an (intermediate) bear
signal.
The primary trend is upwards and Twiggs
Money Flow (100-day) signals accumulation. Primary support is at 1150.
Resistance is at 1250: the upper border of the rising
wedge pattern. Volatility is at historically low levels, with 63-day
Volatility stalling below 2%, confirming that the market is consolidating.
Consolidations are normally followed by strong trend moves; the challenge is to
determine when the consolidation ends and the trend begins.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 12:53
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
If this cycle is correct then it IS time to start thinking SHORT
for maybe as much as 60 points or more.
Clyde
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 11:33
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
Well! Here is 1237 and now it is time to
look for the next leg up and the next leg down. See which entry price
is hit. Like shooting fish in a barrel at times. Other times are
a little tougher.
Good trading, Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 8:32
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
I have no longer term sell on the SPX.
I have resistance, a price objective, at 1244 and an over all target of
1262 for the move up. My short term downside target is 1239 which
appears to have been reached and another leg down is setting up. If
the entry price is hit look for support at 1239 and a target price of
1237. Right now the entry price hasn't been hit for this next
leg down. There is also an entry price for the next move up.
If that is hit the profit potential for that move far exceeds the current
potential for a down move.
There is nothing happening right now that
says that the up move is over even though there is a retracement currently
going on.
Ira. .
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 7:51
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
I do not trade dia or Dow
futures
only spy and sp05u
if you can translate into spy or
sp05u I can see our # mach
(you could do at your leisure)
best regards
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 10:38
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
This is where we differ and our trading
styles show our conflicting approach. It appears that you are
trading off of extremes that are produced by your charts and I would
trade when price has hit my entry price. We seem to both come up
with similar answers. You scale in and I would trade the max
that my money management would allow. Both have
stops. My stop tells me I am wrong. I have no idea how you
create your stop.
Right now I would be short with an entry
price of 10694 with support at 10685 and a target at 10670.
Stop at 10725. All specific numbers, these are rounded, with
indicator confirmation.
do these numbers fit your
scenario?
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005
6:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Hello Ira
this is why i put only 25% of the
position and always has an exit point which is a stop
loss
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005
1:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
So far so good. Ben you are a
couple of days early for a real short I believe.
We are at that 10,725 resistance area and a retracement of sorts
should occur.
Once again one mans opinion,
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005
11:22 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Congratulations on a great set of
charts. The interesting thing is that different people
look at the same chart and see different things.
Using the daily chart only it would take a drop of over 250
points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of
over 1000 points. That leaves a huge stop. For it to
even begin 10,400 would have to be taken out and there would be
support at 10,000, that would make for part of the move,
600 points +/-.
ON the up side I have a very high
price target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at
11,025 and 11,280.
There are resistance levels at
10,650, 10,725 and 10,960. These resistance levels are
interim price objectives and retracements should occur from
these levels. It is the magnitude of the retracement that
will make the difference as to whether price continues up or
goes down to test previous levels as support.
Like your work Ben.
Just a little different input using
different data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19,
2005 10:31 AM
Subject: [RT] market
outlook
The Dow Industrial Average
has broken out of the intermediate consolidation pattern,
closing above resistance at [3], then drawing into a narrow
range at [4], before further gains at [5]. Volumes were light
until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling (signaled
by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at
10900/11000. A pull-back that respects 10550 would add
confirmation; while a retreat below 10550 would signal further
hesitancy.
The last year has established strong support at
10000/9750. There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500,
shown by price action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs in
2005. I expect to see a lot more price action between these
levels before there is a clear breakout. Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong
rise above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the
recent high, without crossing below zero, that would be a
further bull signal.
Transport indicators have failed to follow through on
recent bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the
recent highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS,
similarly, above its May high.
The Nasdaq
Composite is testing resistance at 2100. A close above
this level (the high of the January to March consolidation)
would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Friday showed
increased resistance with strong volume and a red candle (weak
close); so a fall below 2050 should not be discounted,
signaling a test of support at 1900.
The market appears
to have more confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.
The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than
the Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March high
of 1225. A close above 1225 would signal resumption of the
primary up-trend.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a
pull-back that held above the zero line. A rise to a new
6-month high would confirm.
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