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It didn't last very long, but it did give one a
chance to get out if they were long. Now let us see if the down move
completes to the target.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, March 22, 2005 6:49
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
Well here it is and now the question is "how long
will it last?". Time to look at the charts again.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 21, 2005 11:33
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
Ben:
You should get your bounce, most of my stuff is
at support and that usually means a retracement before the trend
continues.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 21, 2005 7:36
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
I pray for a small bounce
,
my max upside is 2.5% on sp
and 3.5% on nasdaq
i was sure we make a higher low and up
close too
i am not only disapponted, but also
worried
there were MORE more new lows than new
highs
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2005 8:20
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
Last Sunday I indicated the NDX could see a
low of 1482 and the S&P 500 a low of 1186 before a reversal
occurred. On Friday we saw both of these lows and slightly more setting
up the possible up swing for this coming week. All major indexes are in
a reversal condition for tomorrow and the individual stocks show a
strong bullish bias. In addition Monday is the beginning day of a four
day cycle and so it is an important day for the trend for the rest
of the week. If we see a weak rally attempt and a lower close, it would
be very bearish. If we see a strong close, chances are the up swing will
continue for the rest of the week.
Of course all of this is assuming no new
strong impulses to the markets. Let's see how it develops.
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 5:09
AM
Subject: [RT] Next Week
Each week I analyze all the stocks in the DJIA and
NDX 100 as well as the
major stock indexes, sector ETF's, current
markets, bond and T-Bill markets.
The analysis gives me a
perspective of what to expect in the coming week,
when to expect
significant reversals and what sectors of the market will be
the
best trading vehicles for the week. The methodology has proven
it's
worth over the years providing an 80% win/loss ratio and ROI's
far above the
norm. For the coming week I see some tradable
cross-currents emerging.
First, my longer term market models are
signaling a reduction in the risk of
a substantial decline which I
first warned about several weeks ago. The
composite market model
first warned of a decline on 1/10 and reversed itself
on 1/25. The
second warning came on 2/25 and was reversed on 3/10.
My NDX model
has been bearish for awhile but first indicated a change
in
sentiment last weekend and despite the four day decline this
past week, the
underlying structure continued to strengthen.
Friday's outside day was
bearish and we could see 1482 before the
turn. Also the last Pivot low of
1490 should provide support. The
next Near Impulse forecast date is
Thursday, 3/17 so my guess
is we see some decline and sideways
consolidation before the up
swing emerges.
Many of you trade the S&P 500 and attached is a
chart with previous
forecasted reversal points indicated by the
ellipses. As you can see Friday
was a forecast reversal day but the
morning attempt failed and we closed
near the bottom channel of the
current Andrew's channel. If we can hold 1200
it will be bullish
but there is risk of decline to 1186 to 1190 before a
full
reversal.
My analysis of individual stocks in the NDX shows a two
to one ratio of
expected advancing to declining stocks and thus
signals to trade the long
side next week whereas last week it was
strongly favoring the short side.
The areas to expect the best
moves are in Communication Services, Computer
Equipment, Internet,
Retail and Transportation while the weakest are the
semi's and
Biotech's.
All in all, the mix is not right yet for a strong
advance but I believe it
is coming.
Regarding Gold and the
Dollar, I see a strong prospect for an advance in the
Dollar and
Bonds and a decline in gold.
Best Regards,
Jim
White
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