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Re: [RT] Next Week

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I pray for a small bounce  ,
my max upside is 2.5% on sp
and 3.5% on nasdaq
i was  sure we make a higher low and up close too
i am not only disapponted, but also worried
there were MORE more new lows than new highs
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2005 8:20 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week

Last Sunday I indicated the NDX could see a low of 1482 and the S&P 500 a low of 1186 before a reversal occurred. On Friday we saw both of these lows and slightly more setting up the possible up swing for this coming week. All major indexes are in a reversal condition for tomorrow and the individual stocks show a strong bullish bias. In addition Monday is the beginning day of a four day cycle and  so it is an important day for the trend for the rest of the week. If we see a weak rally attempt and a lower close, it would be very bearish. If we see a strong close, chances are the up swing will continue for the rest of the week.
Of course all of this is assuming no new strong impulses to the markets. Let's see how it develops.
 
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim White
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 5:09 AM
Subject: [RT] Next Week

Each week I analyze all the stocks in the DJIA and NDX 100 as well as the
major stock indexes, sector ETF's, current markets, bond and T-Bill markets.
The analysis gives me a perspective of what to expect in the coming week,
when to expect significant reversals and what sectors of the market will be
the best trading vehicles for the week. The methodology has proven it's
worth over the years providing an 80% win/loss ratio and ROI's far above the
norm. For the coming week I see some tradable cross-currents emerging.
First, my longer term market models are signaling a reduction in the risk of
a substantial decline which I first warned about several weeks ago. The
composite market model first warned of a decline on 1/10 and reversed itself
on 1/25. The second warning came on 2/25 and was reversed on 3/10.
My NDX model has been bearish for awhile but first indicated a change in
sentiment last weekend and despite the four day decline this past week, the
underlying structure continued to strengthen. Friday's outside day was
bearish and we could see 1482 before the turn. Also the last Pivot low of
1490 should provide support. The next Near Impulse forecast date is
Thursday,  3/17 so my guess is we see some decline and sideways
consolidation before the up swing emerges.
Many of you trade the S&P 500 and attached is a chart with previous
forecasted reversal points indicated by the ellipses. As you can see Friday
was a forecast reversal day but the morning attempt failed and we closed
near the bottom channel of the current Andrew's channel. If we can hold 1200
it will be bullish but there is risk of decline to 1186 to 1190 before a
full reversal.
My analysis of individual stocks in the NDX shows a two to one ratio of
expected advancing to declining stocks and thus signals to trade the long
side next week whereas last week it was strongly favoring the short side.
The areas to expect the best moves are in Communication Services, Computer
Equipment, Internet, Retail and Transportation while the weakest are the
semi's and Biotech's.
All in all, the mix is not right yet for a strong advance but I believe it
is coming.
Regarding Gold and the Dollar, I see a strong prospect for an advance in the
Dollar and Bonds and a decline in gold.

Best Regards,
Jim White



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