----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 21, 2005 7:36
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
I pray for a small bounce ,
my max upside is 2.5% on sp
and 3.5% on nasdaq
i was sure we make a higher low and up
close too
i am not only disapponted, but also
worried
there were MORE more new lows than new
highs
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2005 8:20
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
Last Sunday I indicated the NDX could see a low
of 1482 and the S&P 500 a low of 1186 before a reversal occurred. On
Friday we saw both of these lows and slightly more setting up the possible
up swing for this coming week. All major indexes are in a reversal condition
for tomorrow and the individual stocks show a strong bullish bias. In
addition Monday is the beginning day of a four day cycle and so it is
an important day for the trend for the rest of the week. If we see a weak
rally attempt and a lower close, it would be very bearish. If we see a
strong close, chances are the up swing will continue for the rest of the
week.
Of course all of this is assuming no new strong
impulses to the markets. Let's see how it develops.
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 5:09
AM
Subject: [RT] Next Week
Each week I analyze all the stocks in the DJIA and NDX
100 as well as the
major stock indexes, sector ETF's, current markets,
bond and T-Bill markets.
The analysis gives me a perspective of what to
expect in the coming week,
when to expect significant reversals and
what sectors of the market will be
the best trading vehicles for the
week. The methodology has proven it's
worth over the years providing an
80% win/loss ratio and ROI's far above the
norm. For the coming week I
see some tradable cross-currents emerging.
First, my longer term market
models are signaling a reduction in the risk of
a substantial decline
which I first warned about several weeks ago. The
composite market
model first warned of a decline on 1/10 and reversed itself
on 1/25.
The second warning came on 2/25 and was reversed on 3/10.
My NDX model
has been bearish for awhile but first indicated a change in
sentiment
last weekend and despite the four day decline this past week,
the
underlying structure continued to strengthen. Friday's outside day
was
bearish and we could see 1482 before the turn. Also the last Pivot
low of
1490 should provide support. The next Near Impulse forecast date
is
Thursday, 3/17 so my guess is we see some decline and
sideways
consolidation before the up swing emerges.
Many of you
trade the S&P 500 and attached is a chart with previous
forecasted
reversal points indicated by the ellipses. As you can see Friday
was a
forecast reversal day but the morning attempt failed and we closed
near
the bottom channel of the current Andrew's channel. If we can hold
1200
it will be bullish but there is risk of decline to 1186 to 1190
before a
full reversal.
My analysis of individual stocks in the NDX
shows a two to one ratio of
expected advancing to declining stocks and
thus signals to trade the long
side next week whereas last week it was
strongly favoring the short side.
The areas to expect the best moves
are in Communication Services, Computer
Equipment, Internet, Retail and
Transportation while the weakest are the
semi's and Biotech's.
All
in all, the mix is not right yet for a strong advance but I believe
it
is coming.
Regarding Gold and the Dollar, I see a strong prospect
for an advance in the
Dollar and Bonds and a decline in
gold.
Best Regards,
Jim White
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