----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 21, 2005 7:36
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
I pray for a small bounce ,
my max upside is 2.5% on sp
and 3.5% on nasdaq
i was sure we make a higher low and up
close too
i am not only disapponted, but also
worried
there were MORE more new lows than new
highs
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2005 8:20
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Next Week
Last Sunday I indicated the NDX could see a
low of 1482 and the S&P 500 a low of 1186 before a reversal occurred.
On Friday we saw both of these lows and slightly more setting up the
possible up swing for this coming week. All major indexes are in a
reversal condition for tomorrow and the individual stocks show a strong
bullish bias. In addition Monday is the beginning day of a four day cycle
and so it is an important day for the trend for the rest of the
week. If we see a weak rally attempt and a lower close, it would be very
bearish. If we see a strong close, chances are the up swing will continue
for the rest of the week.
Of course all of this is assuming no new
strong impulses to the markets. Let's see how it develops.
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 5:09
AM
Subject: [RT] Next Week
Each week I analyze all the stocks in the DJIA and
NDX 100 as well as the
major stock indexes, sector ETF's, current
markets, bond and T-Bill markets.
The analysis gives me a perspective
of what to expect in the coming week,
when to expect significant
reversals and what sectors of the market will be
the best trading
vehicles for the week. The methodology has proven it's
worth over the
years providing an 80% win/loss ratio and ROI's far above the
norm.
For the coming week I see some tradable cross-currents
emerging.
First, my longer term market models are signaling a
reduction in the risk of
a substantial decline which I first warned
about several weeks ago. The
composite market model first warned of a
decline on 1/10 and reversed itself
on 1/25. The second warning came
on 2/25 and was reversed on 3/10.
My NDX model has been bearish for
awhile but first indicated a change in
sentiment last weekend and
despite the four day decline this past week, the
underlying structure
continued to strengthen. Friday's outside day was
bearish and we
could see 1482 before the turn. Also the last Pivot low of
1490
should provide support. The next Near Impulse forecast date
is
Thursday, 3/17 so my guess is we see some decline and
sideways
consolidation before the up swing emerges.
Many of you
trade the S&P 500 and attached is a chart with
previous
forecasted reversal points indicated by the ellipses. As you
can see Friday
was a forecast reversal day but the morning attempt
failed and we closed
near the bottom channel of the current Andrew's
channel. If we can hold 1200
it will be bullish but there is risk of
decline to 1186 to 1190 before a
full reversal.
My analysis of
individual stocks in the NDX shows a two to one ratio of
expected
advancing to declining stocks and thus signals to trade the long
side
next week whereas last week it was strongly favoring the short
side.
The areas to expect the best moves are in Communication
Services, Computer
Equipment, Internet, Retail and Transportation
while the weakest are the
semi's and Biotech's.
All in all, the
mix is not right yet for a strong advance but I believe it
is
coming.
Regarding Gold and the Dollar, I see a strong prospect for an
advance in the
Dollar and Bonds and a decline in gold.
Best
Regards,
Jim White
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