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A good definition of prediction that would apply
perfectly to trading that I just read is: "Reasoning about the future."
Isn't that what you are doing when you decide to act on a signal from your
indicators. Who set-up your indicators? Who got to know them? Who
programmed/installed them to give you a signal? When you get a signal from your
indicators and take the trade you are trusting your indicators are telling
you there is a high probability the market is going to move in the direction the
signal is giving. You say: "My indicators are predicting nothing. If
they could, I would never lose or have to use stops." I just can't agree with
this interpretation of the word prediction. A prediction is just
that: A prediction. It might be wrong; it might be right. A prediction is
not something infallible like you are inferring in your quoted statement
here. An indicator is giving you a signal because in its calculations of
the market, set by you from your experience of the market, certain parameters
have been met where there is a high probability the market is going
to move a certain way. I would certainly call this predicting or
"reasoning about the future."
Harry
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
RB
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 9:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
LOL! My indicators are predicting
nothing. If they could, I would never lose or have to use stops.
Why in the world do you think I can or am predicting anything. This has
got to be a joke! It is probably what the word predicting means to
me.
It is most likely a different meaning than
yours.
This is kind of what predicting means to
me.
A prediction may be something like. The
market will go up tomorrow, next week or what ever.
Trading may be something like. I got a buy
signal, but have no idea what will happen so I will put in a stop and look at
the charts tommorrow.
Or maybe for a prediction. My team
will win the next game.
Not a prediction. My team should win
the next game, because I think we are better than the other team, but anything
can happen, so time will tell.
So yes. I deffinately fail to see the
odvious. Especially when someone else that does not know me, tells me
that I predict something when I know I don't, never have and never will
predict anything. That is just silly.
My indicators are just swiggily lines on a
chart, and only a fool would think that they can predict anything. If
you or anyone else thinks that just because a swiggily line on a chart turns
up or down, crosses this or that and it means they are actually predicting
something in the future, you are just fooling yourself. I know now why
it is easier to make money selling to traders than trading.
This has become a joke. Saying some
indicators that I have and use can predict something in the
future.
Maybe too much TV?
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 12:20
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>RB,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>You fail to see the obvious. When you take a buy signal based
on your indicators you ARE making a prediction.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>End of story...to disagree with this is to stick ones head in the
sand and argue semantics. If you make money
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>from your trades on balance, by definition your tools are making an
accurate forecast just as you intended them to.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Perhaps not in the narrow sense you <SPAN
class=250321708-08032004>may think,
but a forecast they are making. I'll leave it to you to work out what that
exactly is...but its as plain as the nose on your face
:)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Cheers,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: RB
[mailto:rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Monday, 8 March 2004 1:43
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
nasdaq and sp500 topTo some people maybe.
But, I use indicators etc. and predict nothing. Ifmy indicators
show buy. I buy. Nothing to do with me predicting
anythingat all. And that is good. My opinions and
predictions are usually not toogood. In other words I would be
wrong to often. I like to use charts andlet my indicators etc.
do the work. I leave the predictions to the psycics.As far as
taking trades. I am predicting nothing. What would make
youthink I could or would predict anything?I take the signals, use
stops and don't worry about it.Kind of like any bussiness, games or
anything in life. We can't predict ifwe will win, but we can
prepare and do our best and hope things work out.Yes, I know Broadway
Joe predicted the jets win over the colts. Somethings can't be
explained! :) But, most teams prepare and hope for
thebest, but can't predict the out come. If i would have
tried, I would have probably predicted the last 5 tops inthe stock
market that didn't happen. LOL!Many others have done this many,
many times.I guess some try to predict? I don't predict
anything!----- Original Message -----From: "ClydeLee (swb)"
<clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 3:24
PMSubject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top> You
say:>> " I've been following markets for close to 30 years
and have never> predicted anything.">> Now personally
I think that is a crock.>> Any time you take a trade you are
predicting that prices will move in> a direction that will make you
a profit or you would not take a trade.>> This concept of
not predicting and only reacting to the market is> definitely out
of kilter with reality!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>>
Clyde>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - -> Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Office: (713)
783-9540> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - ->>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: "RB" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004
6:49 PM> Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top>>> > Yep. The word predict has nothing
to do with trading.> > If it did we would never need stops or
protection. :)> > I've been following markets for
close to 30 years and have never> predicted> >
anything.> > Just be careful with the ones who claim they
can predict, or make a> $1,000> > a day or make 200% a
week in trading etc. There are many of those crooks> on>
> the net. If they could do that, they would have more money
than Gatesin> 4> > years. Just find out their
names and check to see if they are listed as> one> > of
the richest peopele in the world. Odds are they are not even
closeto> > being the richest on their block. :) Most
likely not even the richestin> > their own family.
LOL!> >> >> > ----- Original Message
-----> > From: "mr.ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Sunday,
March 07, 2004 11:39 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top> >> >> > > One can not predict the
future with 100% reliability, but one cantrade> >
with> > > a very high degree of probability, 80%+. As
for owning the world, not> > with> > > the current
liquidity.> > >> > >> > > -----
Original Message -----> > > From: "RB"
<rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > Sent: Sunday, March
07, 2004 1:41 PM> > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top> > >> > >> > > > The future
can not be predicted period. If one could, they wouldown>
> the> > > > world. But, since one can't, we are
in the same boat. :) Run don't> > walk> > >
> from someone saying this or that predicts this or that.> >
> >> > > > ----- Original Message -----> >
> > From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>> > >
> To: "profitok" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > >
> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 7:01 AM> > > > Subject:
Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top> > > >> > >
>> > > > > Hello Ben,> > > >
>> > > > > I have overlaid it over Wilshire
5000 index portfolio (symbol> WINDX).> > > > >
See attached. As far as I can see (and of
course I may be> missing> > > > > smth.)
for the last year the study predicted about 5 tops that>
didn't> > > > > occur and suggested no one long (didn't
predict any bottom).> > > > >> > > >
> Best regards,> > > > >
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > Sunday, March 7, 2004, 8:14:26 AM,
you wrote:> > > > >> > > > > p>
Hello> > > > >> > > > > p> this
is my long term trading> > > > > p> it is done on
the weekly bars of the whilshire 5000> > > >
> p> (almost all stocks traded)> > > > >>
> > > > p> when the line reaches the top it is a good time
to exit your> > > > conservative money and 401K and
IRA> > > > >> > > > > p> right
now we are VERY close to a top (max upside
potentialis> > 250> > > > whilshire
5000 points)> > > > >> > > > > p>
the chrt is reduced to a 1/10 of value (current close
11314)> > > > > p> Ben> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > >> >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links> > > > >>
> > > >> > > > >> > > >
>> > > > >> > > >> > >
>> > > >> > > >> > >
>> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links> > >
>> > > >> > > >> > >
>> > >> > >> > >> >
>> > > Yahoo! Groups Links> > >> >
>> > >> > >> > >> >
>> >> >> >> >>
>> > Yahoo! Groups Links> >> >>
>> >> >>
>>>>>>>>>
Yahoo! Groups
Links>>>>>>
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