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I agree. It is deffinately the meaning
of prediction that is the problem in this whole silly posting.
I still can't believe that someone else is
telling me that I am predicting something when I know I am not.
Anyway, the type of indicators I use, can
change so much, that you would laugh if I showed you the indicators and told you
they were predicting something. If anything, they would be predicting
confussion most of the time. :)
Anyway, enough time has been spent on this
silly predicting the future stuff. Lets be through with it.
I know I can't predict the future and don't
try.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
H&M Feld
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 5:23
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
A good definition of prediction that would apply
perfectly to trading that I just read is: "Reasoning about the future."
Isn't that what you are doing when you decide to act on a signal from your
indicators. Who set-up your indicators? Who got to know them? Who
programmed/installed them to give you a signal? When you get a signal from
your indicators and take the trade you are trusting your indicators are
telling you there is a high probability the market is going to move in the
direction the signal is giving. You say: "My indicators are
predicting nothing. If they could, I would never lose or have to use stops." I
just can't agree with this interpretation of the word prediction. A
prediction is just that: A prediction. It might be wrong; it might be right. A
prediction is not something infallible like you are inferring in your
quoted statement here. An indicator is giving you a signal because in
its calculations of the market, set by you from your experience of the market,
certain parameters have been met where there is a high probability
the market is going to move a certain way. I would certainly call
this predicting or "reasoning about the future."
Harry
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
RB
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 9:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
LOL! My indicators are predicting
nothing. If they could, I would never lose or have to use stops.
Why in the world do you think I can or am predicting anything. This
has got to be a joke! It is probably what the word predicting means to
me.
It is most likely a different meaning than
yours.
This is kind of what predicting means to
me.
A prediction may be something like. The
market will go up tomorrow, next week or what ever.
Trading may be something like. I got a
buy signal, but have no idea what will happen so I will put in a stop and
look at the charts tommorrow.
Or maybe for a prediction. My team
will win the next game.
Not a prediction. My team should
win the next game, because I think we are better than the other team, but
anything can happen, so time will tell.
So yes. I deffinately fail to see
the odvious. Especially when someone else that does not know me, tells
me that I predict something when I know I don't, never have and never will
predict anything. That is just silly.
My indicators are just swiggily lines on
a chart, and only a fool would think that they can predict anything.
If you or anyone else thinks that just because a swiggily line on a chart
turns up or down, crosses this or that and it means they are actually
predicting something in the future, you are just fooling yourself. I
know now why it is easier to make money selling to traders than
trading.
This has become a joke. Saying some
indicators that I have and use can predict something in the
future.
Maybe too much TV?
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 12:20
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>RB,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>You fail to see the obvious. When you take a buy signal based
on your indicators you ARE making a prediction.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>End of story...to disagree with this is to stick ones head in the
sand and argue semantics. If you make money
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>from your trades on balance, by definition your tools are making an
accurate forecast just as you intended them to.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Perhaps not in the narrow sense you <SPAN
class=250321708-08032004>may think,
but a forecast they are making. I'll leave it to you to work out what that
exactly is...but its as plain as the nose on your face
:)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Cheers,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: RB
[mailto:rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Monday, 8 March 2004
1:43 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] nasdaq and sp500 topTo some people
maybe. But, I use indicators etc. and predict nothing.
Ifmy indicators show buy. I buy. Nothing to do with me
predicting anythingat all. And that is good. My opinions
and predictions are usually not toogood. In other words I
would be wrong to often. I like to use charts andlet my
indicators etc. do the work. I leave the predictions to the
psycics.As far as taking trades. I am predicting
nothing. What would make youthink I could or would predict
anything?I take the signals, use stops and don't worry about
it.Kind of like any bussiness, games or anything in life. We
can't predict ifwe will win, but we can prepare and do our best and
hope things work out.Yes, I know Broadway Joe predicted the jets win
over the colts. Somethings can't be explained! :)
But, most teams prepare and hope for thebest, but can't predict the
out come. If i would have tried, I would have probably
predicted the last 5 tops inthe stock market that didn't
happen. LOL!Many others have done this many, many times.I
guess some try to predict? I don't predict anything!-----
Original Message -----From: "ClydeLee (swb)"
<clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 3:24
PMSubject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top> You
say:>> " I've been following markets for close to 30 years
and have never> predicted anything.">> Now
personally I think that is a crock.>> Any time you take a
trade you are predicting that prices will move in> a direction
that will make you a profit or you would not take a
trade.>> This concept of not predicting and only reacting
to the market is> definitely out of kilter with
reality!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>> Clyde>> - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -> Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Office: (713)
783-9540> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - ->>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: "RB" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004
6:49 PM> Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top>>> > Yep. The word predict has nothing
to do with trading.> > If it did we would never need stops or
protection. :)> > I've been following markets for
close to 30 years and have never> predicted> >
anything.> > Just be careful with the ones who claim
they can predict, or make a> $1,000> > a day or make
200% a week in trading etc. There are many of those crooks>
on> > the net. If they could do that, they would have
more money than Gatesin> 4> > years. Just
find out their names and check to see if they are listed as>
one> > of the richest peopele in the world. Odds are
they are not even closeto> > being the richest on their
block. :) Most likely not even the richestin> >
their own family. LOL!> >> >> >
----- Original Message -----> > From: "mr.ira"
<mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Sunday, March 07,
2004 11:39 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top> >> >> > > One can not predict the
future with 100% reliability, but one cantrade> >
with> > > a very high degree of probability, 80%+. As
for owning the world, not> > with> > > the
current liquidity.> > >> > >> > >
----- Original Message -----> > > From: "RB"
<rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > Sent: Sunday,
March 07, 2004 1:41 PM> > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and
sp500 top> > >> > >> > > > The
future can not be predicted period. If one could, they
wouldown> > the> > > > world. But,
since one can't, we are in the same boat. :) Run don't>
> walk> > > > from someone saying this or that
predicts this or that.> > > >> > > >
----- Original Message -----> > > > From: "Alex Bell"
<alex_bell@xxxxxxx>> > > > To: "profitok"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > Sent: Sunday,
March 07, 2004 7:01 AM> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq
and sp500 top> > > >> > > >> >
> > > Hello Ben,> > > > >> > >
> > I have overlaid it over Wilshire 5000 index portfolio
(symbol> WINDX).> > > > > See
attached. As far as I can see (and of course I
may be> missing> > > > > smth.) for the
last year the study predicted about 5 tops that> didn't>
> > > > occur and suggested no one long (didn't predict any
bottom).> > > > >> > > > > Best
regards,> > > > >
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > Sunday, March 7, 2004, 8:14:26 AM,
you wrote:> > > > >> > > > > p>
Hello> > > > >> > > > > p> this
is my long term trading> > > > > p> it is done on
the weekly bars of the whilshire 5000> > > >
> p> (almost all stocks traded)> > > >
>> > > > > p> when the line reaches the top it
is a good time to exit your> > > > conservative
money and 401K and IRA> > > > >> >
> > > p> right now we are VERY close to a top
(max upside potentialis> > 250> > >
> whilshire 5000 points)> > > > >>
> > > > p> the chrt is reduced to a 1/10 of
value (current close 11314)> > > > > p>
Ben> > > > >> > > > >> >
> > >> > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links>
> > > >> > > > >> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > >>
> > >> > > >> > > >>
> > >> > > >> > > > Yahoo!
Groups Links> > > >> > > >> >
> >> > > >> > >> >
>> > >> > >> > > Yahoo! Groups
Links> > >> > >> > >> >
>> > >> > >> >>
>> >> >> >> > Yahoo! Groups
Links> >> >> >> >>
>>
>>>>>>>>>
Yahoo! Groups
Links>>>>>>
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