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Well, I guess that would alos depend on who
you ask. :)
To me, making a bet has nothing to do with
making a prediction.
I don't bet or gamble, but lets say I was
making a bet on a basketball game. Lets say Duke was playing
Carolina.
I would bet on Duke because I honestly think they
are the better of the two, but I am deffinately not predicting that they WILL
win. They are not undefeated, and even if they were, undefeated, I still
would not come out and predict that they would win, but if I had to bet, I
would take Duke!
Kind of like playing black jack or
anything. You play, you bet, but of course you don't predict you are going
to win. That would be silly.
But, don't get me wrong. You can predict and
some do predict. I don't predict!
Maybe an intelligent guess, sometimes.
:)
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 4:12
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
Here's one
related to this issue:
Is making a BET
the same as making a PREDICTION ?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: RB
[mailto:rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 9:53
PMTo: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
Another point about your
email.
You seem to be talking about the 10%-20%
who make make some money. How about the 80%-90% that lose?
Are they predicting and are just wrong?
Maybe that is one of my main
points.
YES, you can predict! But, most of
the time it is wrong.
But, now back to me. I don't
predict. And why you, say that I can and do predict is beyond
logic.
I don't even know what happened in most markets
yesterday. Why in the world you think I can predict the future, is
silly.
So, YES, I fail to see the
obvious!
Also remember, if you see the nose on your
face, you are spending too much time in front of a mirrow.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 12:20
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>RB,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>You fail to see the obvious. When you take a buy signal based
on your indicators you ARE making a prediction.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>End of story...to disagree with this is to stick ones head in the
sand and argue semantics. If you make money
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>from your trades on balance, by definition your tools are making an
accurate forecast just as you intended them to.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Perhaps not in the narrow sense you <SPAN
class=250321708-08032004>may think,
but a forecast they are making. I'll leave it to you to work out what that
exactly is...but its as plain as the nose on your face
:)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Cheers,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: RB
[mailto:rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Monday, 8 March 2004
1:43 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] nasdaq and sp500 topTo some people
maybe. But, I use indicators etc. and predict nothing.
Ifmy indicators show buy. I buy. Nothing to do with me
predicting anythingat all. And that is good. My opinions
and predictions are usually not toogood. In other words I
would be wrong to often. I like to use charts andlet my
indicators etc. do the work. I leave the predictions to the
psycics.As far as taking trades. I am predicting
nothing. What would make youthink I could or would predict
anything?I take the signals, use stops and don't worry about
it.Kind of like any bussiness, games or anything in life. We
can't predict ifwe will win, but we can prepare and do our best and
hope things work out.Yes, I know Broadway Joe predicted the jets win
over the colts. Somethings can't be explained! :)
But, most teams prepare and hope for thebest, but can't predict the
out come. If i would have tried, I would have probably
predicted the last 5 tops inthe stock market that didn't
happen. LOL!Many others have done this many, many times.I
guess some try to predict? I don't predict anything!-----
Original Message -----From: "ClydeLee (swb)"
<clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 3:24
PMSubject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top> You
say:>> " I've been following markets for close to 30 years
and have never> predicted anything.">> Now
personally I think that is a crock.>> Any time you take a
trade you are predicting that prices will move in> a direction
that will make you a profit or you would not take a
trade.>> This concept of not predicting and only reacting
to the market is> definitely out of kilter with
reality!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>> Clyde>> - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -> Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Office: (713)
783-9540> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - ->>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: "RB" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004
6:49 PM> Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top>>> > Yep. The word predict has nothing
to do with trading.> > If it did we would never need stops or
protection. :)> > I've been following markets for
close to 30 years and have never> predicted> >
anything.> > Just be careful with the ones who claim
they can predict, or make a> $1,000> > a day or make
200% a week in trading etc. There are many of those crooks>
on> > the net. If they could do that, they would have
more money than Gatesin> 4> > years. Just
find out their names and check to see if they are listed as>
one> > of the richest peopele in the world. Odds are
they are not even closeto> > being the richest on their
block. :) Most likely not even the richestin> >
their own family. LOL!> >> >> >
----- Original Message -----> > From: "mr.ira"
<mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Sunday, March 07,
2004 11:39 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top> >> >> > > One can not predict the
future with 100% reliability, but one cantrade> >
with> > > a very high degree of probability, 80%+. As
for owning the world, not> > with> > > the
current liquidity.> > >> > >> > >
----- Original Message -----> > > From: "RB"
<rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > Sent: Sunday,
March 07, 2004 1:41 PM> > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and
sp500 top> > >> > >> > > > The
future can not be predicted period. If one could, they
wouldown> > the> > > > world. But,
since one can't, we are in the same boat. :) Run don't>
> walk> > > > from someone saying this or that
predicts this or that.> > > >> > > >
----- Original Message -----> > > > From: "Alex Bell"
<alex_bell@xxxxxxx>> > > > To: "profitok"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > > > Sent: Sunday,
March 07, 2004 7:01 AM> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq
and sp500 top> > > >> > > >> >
> > > Hello Ben,> > > > >> > >
> > I have overlaid it over Wilshire 5000 index portfolio
(symbol> WINDX).> > > > > See
attached. As far as I can see (and of course I
may be> missing> > > > > smth.) for the
last year the study predicted about 5 tops that> didn't>
> > > > occur and suggested no one long (didn't predict any
bottom).> > > > >> > > > > Best
regards,> > > > >
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > Sunday, March 7, 2004, 8:14:26 AM,
you wrote:> > > > >> > > > > p>
Hello> > > > >> > > > > p> this
is my long term trading> > > > > p> it is done on
the weekly bars of the whilshire 5000> > > >
> p> (almost all stocks traded)> > > >
>> > > > > p> when the line reaches the top it
is a good time to exit your> > > > conservative
money and 401K and IRA> > > > >> >
> > > p> right now we are VERY close to a top
(max upside potentialis> > 250> > >
> whilshire 5000 points)> > > > >>
> > > > p> the chrt is reduced to a 1/10 of
value (current close 11314)> > > > > p>
Ben> > > > >> > > > >> >
> > >> > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links>
> > > >> > > > >> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > >>
> > >> > > >> > > >>
> > >> > > >> > > > Yahoo!
Groups Links> > > >> > > >> >
> >> > > >> > >> >
>> > >> > >> > > Yahoo! Groups
Links> > >> > >> > >> >
>> > >> > >> >>
>> >> >> >> > Yahoo! Groups
Links> >> >> >> >>
>>
>>>>>>>>>
Yahoo! Groups
Links>>>>>>
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