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--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh" <BHEISLER@xxxx> wrote:
> Well, my next preference would be both but not very far in either
direction.
>
> Normally after boom/bust periods, like we're in now, a market tends
to do a lot of nothing for a very long time.
I don't disagree with that, but a lot of nothing like we just had
could mean a trip back to < 800? Or up another 300 SPX points? Right?
I'm on record, and I took a lot of flack for it here,
saying we could see a sort of 70's style bear. That market "did
nothing" for a very long time, but in the context of a 50% range (Dow
500-1000). Iraq ain't as bad as 'Nam yet (50K body bags back then
kids), but it smells a bit like those bad old days. It's not George
Sr.'s wam-bam-thank-you-mam clean made for TV kinda war, that's for
sure.
> Plus favorite tools (outside of Price) that may have worked well in
a bull or bear market are not likely to work as well, if at all, in a
transitional market.
Are you saying stuff like breadth or trendlines or price patterns are
no longer working? I agree the market is less trendy, but even within
that context markets tend to cycle from choppy to more volatile and
back again. FWIW, multiple weekly ADX's (just a way to
quantify "price" movement, or lack thereof) are at their lowest
levels in three years....sooner or later they will begin to rise
again when price becomes more impulsive.
>
> Just my 2 cents.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 10:31 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
>
>
> > > And if I had to bet $1 on where we go from here - a melt-up, a
melt-
> > down or neither, I'd put in on 'neither'.
> >
> > How about 'either'? There's a pretty tight wedge that's formed
dating
> > back to July. The rising upper trend line is near 1075, and the
lower
> > is above 1040. As long as it stays inside the lines, it stays
inside
> > the lines <g>. As big wave surfers say, "everything is OK until
> > something goes wrong." IOW, no worries until someone gets killed.
> > Anyway, it makes sense to me to watch how the market acts around
> > those TL's. Wedges often can lead into *either* accelerations or
> > sharp breaks or they persist a while longer....but sooner or later
> > someone gets killed by a surprise wave.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh" <BHEISLER@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Since we are in a post-bubble, transitional market I'm
wondering if
> > this comparison is applicable now. It reached single digits back
in
> > the early 1990's and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we saw
those
> > levels again.
> > >
> > > I don't disagree that this market looks like an accident
waiting to
> > happen, but it's looked this way since June. And if I had to bet
$1
> > on where we go from here - a melt-up, a melt-down or neither, I'd
put
> > in on 'neither'.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: EarlA
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 8:00 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> > >
> > >
> > > Attached chart marks off 7 years of SPX vs VXO (old VIX).
Note
> > the 3 heavy red arrows marking extreme low readings w/o 7/24/98,
> > 9/8/00 and current.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: SLAWEKP@xxxx
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Thursday, December 04, 2003 11:48 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> > >
> > >
> > > VIX is in rare Fibo window cycle for low between now &
Monday
> > Dec 8th.
> > >
> > > low for VIX = high for SPX
> > >
> > > Weekly Broker index is topping......this is also leading
> > indicator
> > >
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> >
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