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I agree with you
on the 70's style whatever-it-was market for which I use the term
transitional....neither bull nor bear. With the exception of brief periods
of volatility I expect more of what we've seen the past 6 months
- but it will slowly/steadily get worse and compress even
further.
Yes, I was referring to environmental tools such
as breadth, vix etc. Price patterns and trendlines/horizontal lines still
work just fine.
I hope you're right on a return to
volatility. But until then I'll continue to avoid the indexes.<FONT
face=Verdana size=2>
----- Original Message -----
From: "tradewynne" <<A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>>
To: <<A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>>
Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 2:35
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Market
environment
<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>> --- In <FONT
face=Verdana size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>, "Bobh" <<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>BHEISLER@x...> wrote:>
> Well, my next preference would be both but not very far in either >
direction.> > > > Normally after boom/bust periods, like
we're in now, a market tends > to do a lot of nothing for a very long
time. > > I don't disagree with that, but a lot of nothing like we
just had > could mean a trip back to < 800? Or up another 300 SPX
points? Right?> I'm on record, and I took a lot of flack for it
here,> saying we could see a sort of 70's style bear. That market
"did> nothing" for a very long time, but in the context of a 50% range
(Dow > 500-1000). Iraq ain't as bad as 'Nam yet (50K body bags back then
> kids), but it smells a bit like those bad old days. It's not George
> Sr.'s wam-bam-thank-you-mam clean made for TV kinda war, that's for
> sure.> > > Plus favorite tools (outside of Price) that
may have worked well in > a bull or bear market are not likely to work as
well, if at all, in a > transitional market.> > Are you
saying stuff like breadth or trendlines or price patterns are > no longer
working? I agree the market is less trendy, but even within > that
context markets tend to cycle from choppy to more volatile and> back
again. FWIW, multiple weekly ADX's (just a way to > quantify "price"
movement, or lack thereof) are at their lowest > levels in three
years....sooner or later they will begin to rise > again when price
becomes more impulsive.> > > > > Just my 2
cents.> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "tradewynne" <<FONT
face=Verdana size=2>tradewynne@x<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>...>> > To: <<A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>>> > Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 10:31 AM> >
Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment> > > > >
> > > And if I had to bet $1 on where we go from here - a melt-up, a
> melt-> > > down or neither, I'd put in on
'neither'.> > > > > > How about 'either'? There's a
pretty tight wedge that's formed > dating> > > back to July.
The rising upper trend line is near 1075, and the > lower > >
> is above 1040. As long as it stays inside the lines, it stays >
inside> > > the lines <g>. As big wave surfers say,
"everything is OK until> > > something goes wrong." IOW, no worries
until someone gets killed.> > > Anyway, it makes sense to me to
watch how the market acts around> > > those TL's. Wedges often can
lead into *either* accelerations or > > > sharp breaks or they
persist a while longer....but sooner or later> > > someone gets
killed by a surprise wave.> > > > > > > >
> --- In <FONT
face=Verdana size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>, "Bobh" <<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>BHEISLER@x...> wrote:>
> > > Since we are in a post-bubble, transitional market I'm >
wondering if > > > this comparison is applicable now. It
reached single digits back > in > > > the early 1990's and I
wouldn't be a bit surprised if we saw > those > > > levels
again. > > > > > > > > I don't disagree
that this market looks like an accident > waiting to > > >
happen, but it's looked this way since June. And if I had to bet >
$1 > > > on where we go from here - a melt-up, a melt-down or
neither, I'd > put > > > in on 'neither'.> > >
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message
----- > > > > From: EarlA > > >
> To: <FONT
face=Verdana size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2> > > > > Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 8:00
AM> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market
environment> > > > > > > > > > >
> Attached chart marks off 7 years of SPX vs VXO (old VIX).
> Note > > > the 3 heavy red arrows marking extreme low
readings w/o 7/24/98, > > > 9/8/00 and current.> > >
> > > > > Earl> > >
> ----- Original Message ----- > > >
> From: <FONT
face=Verdana size=2>SLAWEKP@x... >
> > > To: <A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> > > Sent: Thursday, December 04, 2003 11:48
PM> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market
environment> > > > > > > > > > >
> VIX is in rare Fibo window cycle for low
between now & > Monday > > > Dec 8th.> > >
> > > > > low for VIX = high for
SPX> > > > > > > >
Weekly Broker index is topping......this is also leading > > >
indicator> > > > > > >
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