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Well, my next preference would be both but not
very far in either direction.
Normally after boom/bust periods, like we're in
now, a market tends to do a lot of nothing for a very long time.
Plus favorite tools (outside of Price) that may have worked well in a bull
or bear market are not likely to work as well, if at all, in a transitional
market.
Just my 2 cents.
----- Original Message -----
From: "tradewynne" <<A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>>
To: <<A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>>
Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 10:31
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Market
environment
<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>> > And if I had to bet $1 on where we go from here - a melt-up, a
melt-> down or neither, I'd put in on 'neither'.> > How
about 'either'? There's a pretty tight wedge that's formed dating> back
to July. The rising upper trend line is near 1075, and the lower > is
above 1040. As long as it stays inside the lines, it stays inside> the
lines <g>. As big wave surfers say, "everything is OK until>
something goes wrong." IOW, no worries until someone gets killed.>
Anyway, it makes sense to me to watch how the market acts around> those
TL's. Wedges often can lead into *either* accelerations or > sharp breaks
or they persist a while longer....but sooner or later> someone gets
killed by a surprise wave.> > > --- In <A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh"
<<FONT face=Verdana
size=2>BHEISLER@x...> wrote:>
> Since we are in a post-bubble, transitional market I'm wondering if
> this comparison is applicable now. It reached single digits back
in > the early 1990's and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we saw those
> levels again. > > > > I don't disagree that
this market looks like an accident waiting to > happen, but it's looked
this way since June. And if I had to bet $1 > on where we go from
here - a melt-up, a melt-down or neither, I'd put > in on
'neither'.> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: EarlA > > To: <A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 8:00 AM>
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment> > >
> > > Attached chart marks off 7 years of SPX vs VXO
(old VIX). Note > the 3 heavy red arrows marking extreme low readings w/o
7/24/98, > 9/8/00 and current.> > > >
Earl> > ----- Original Message ----- >
> From: <FONT
face=Verdana size=2>SLAWEKP@x... >
> To: <A
href=""><FONT face=Verdana
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> Sent: Thursday, December 04, 2003 11:48 PM>
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment>
> > > > > VIX is in rare
Fibo window cycle for low between now & Monday > Dec 8th.>
> > > low for VIX = high for SPX>
> > > Weekly Broker index is
topping......this is also leading > indicator> > >
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