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from a non-technical viewpoint, the White House has much at stake over the
next 10-11 months....they will "fight" to keep the US Dollar from tanking
sharply. Oh, they will allow it to go lower, but only gradually. Inflation
only "appears" to be under control due to the weak labor markets....workers
have no power to raise their wages. However, gold, cattle, cotton, crude oil
all are zooming to incredible levels given the current state of the
economy....and other commodities may follow suit. Higher inflation and
higher interest rates will eventually "spook" the equity markets....the big
question remaining is: WHEN ? Political forces may postpone these
conditions, but that may only make the inevitable worse.
Label me a Robert Prechter-like bear.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: tradewynne [mailto:tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 11:31 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
>
>
> > And if I had to bet $1 on where we go from here - a melt-up, a melt-
> down or neither, I'd put in on 'neither'.
>
> How about 'either'? There's a pretty tight wedge that's formed dating
> back to July. The rising upper trend line is near 1075, and the lower
> is above 1040. As long as it stays inside the lines, it stays inside
> the lines <g>. As big wave surfers say, "everything is OK until
> something goes wrong." IOW, no worries until someone gets killed.
> Anyway, it makes sense to me to watch how the market acts around
> those TL's. Wedges often can lead into *either* accelerations or
> sharp breaks or they persist a while longer....but sooner or later
> someone gets killed by a surprise wave.
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh" <BHEISLER@xxxx> wrote:
> > Since we are in a post-bubble, transitional market I'm wondering if
> this comparison is applicable now. It reached single digits back in
> the early 1990's and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we saw those
> levels again.
> >
> > I don't disagree that this market looks like an accident waiting to
> happen, but it's looked this way since June. And if I had to bet $1
> on where we go from here - a melt-up, a melt-down or neither, I'd put
> in on 'neither'.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: EarlA
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 8:00 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> >
> >
> > Attached chart marks off 7 years of SPX vs VXO (old VIX). Note
> the 3 heavy red arrows marking extreme low readings w/o 7/24/98,
> 9/8/00 and current.
> >
> > Earl
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: SLAWEKP@xxxx
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, December 04, 2003 11:48 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> >
> >
> > VIX is in rare Fibo window cycle for low between now & Monday
> Dec 8th.
> >
> > low for VIX = high for SPX
> >
> > Weekly Broker index is topping......this is also leading
> indicator
> >
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> >
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>
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