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Who
has held the DOW up then? All the foriegn indices have traded at 1994 or lower
levels. We have not traded near those levels. The fed is not dead but is
severely hobbled. I agree with you on the other points. Funnymentally we should
be much lower.
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<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Mark Simms
[mailto:mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 7:03
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]:
[RT] spx daily
Don't watch the
Fed...the "Fed's Dead".....monetary policy becomes useless and worthless with
nominal interest rates near zero....that's why that bumbling idot Greenspan
has been talking in circles lately.....he has no plan, no effective
agenda.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Brad Cline
[mailto:bradcline@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 9:38
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]:
[RT] spx daily
I copied this. It is interesting if not
true. I know we had a ton of timing for last week but so far we have got a 2
day retrace with a V bottom. I find it hard to believe that the FED will let
the market fall to far with it being so close to "salvation" in the public's
eyes.
The hypothesis offered is that
the Federal Reserve artificially supports the DOW and the US currency with
permanent and temporary repurchase agreement funding. That funding is then
utilized in the open markets by the borrowers, the large trading houses of
Wall Street. Abnormal activity in the futures markets suggests that the home
for this funding are the major index futures which, when bought, support the
underlying individual stocks.The metric to watch is not the daily
repo issuances but the repo pool totals which can only be obtained by
keeping at least a 28 day running total of both the repos and their
scheduled expirations. For example, an issuance of $20 Billion means little
if there is an expiration of the same amount that day. The key is to measure
the aggregate pool totals since it is that pool that determines how much
repo money can be used to buy index futures on any given day.Today's
[May 22, 2003] Fed Repo Action <SPAN
class=830453201-23052003>The Fed did not allow the repo total pool to
fall today. They issued $15.25 Billion in new repurchase agreements. When
the $11.25 Billion in expirations are accounted for we see that the repo
pool has risen to $40 Billion. The DOW this morning [10:40AM] is up 85
points. It’s an open question whether the Fed will ever allow the DOW to
fall so index shorters beware! It is far better to be long gold and its
shares than short the markets under this external Fed interventional
policy.The repo pool metric is gaining validity as time passes as
the DOW keeps tracking with the repo total pool number. So far the $30
Billion level seems necessary to hold the DOW level. Above that and the DOW
rises
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-----Original
Message-----From: BobsKC
[mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 6:07
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re[3]:
[RT] spx dailyAgain, what is the bullish
sentiment? What people tell pollsters or what they actually
do? If you go by what they are doing, and if you believe in
contrarian principals, (which you obviously do), then you would be
long.BobAt 03:18 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:>Hello BobsKC,>>I am short. To me highest
bullish sentiment is a sign of near top.>>Best
regards,>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>>>Friday, May 23, 2003,
3:01:13 AM, you wrote:>>B> Bullish sentiment may be high
but in fact, shorting is robust and getting>B> stronger.
So do we go by what people say or what they do?>>B>
Bob>>>>B> At 02:52 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:> >>Hello Mark,> >>>
>>%Bearish today is lowest since 1991:> >>>
>><A
href="">http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp>
>>> >>". High readings suggest excessive optimism,
which typically occurs> >>when buying strength has been
tapped out, and low readings represent> >>depleted selling
strength, and tend to precede market rallies. We> >>normally
view a bullish percentage higher than 55 combined with a>
>>bearish reading lower 30% as bearish for the market.">
>>> >>> >>Best regards,>
>>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> >>> >>>
>>Thursday, May 22, 2003, 9:36:17 PM, you wrote:>
>>> >>MS> You meant "higher high", right ?>
>>MS> Don't underestimate the bulls....they are wildly optimistic
right> >>MS> now.....and holding this market up.>
>>MS> Bull-Bear survey ratio now at the highest point in
years....> >>MS> -----Original
Message-----> >>MS> From: none
[mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> >>MS> Sent:
Wednesday, May 21, 2003 10:40 PM> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS> Subject:
Re: [RT] spx daily> >>> >>>
>>MS> Hello> >>>
>>MS> I am with you that there is a high
probability that we make a> >>lower high>
>>MS> tomorrow or Fri. and then collapse>
>>MS> Ben>
>>MS> ----- Original Message
-----> >>MS> From: Rhonda
Guilbeaux> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS>
Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 7:37 PM>
>>MS> Subject: [RT] spx daily>
>>> >>> >>MS>
Last quarter's candle waist 882.>
>>MS> right at the 200 dma area.>
>>> >>MS> Higher support..at
the 898 area.. (near the rising 50dma)>
>>MS> Wouldn't be surprised to see
this price level tested.. and also to> >>MS> hold,
initially> >>MS> anyway.>
>>MS> if not, 867-882 looks to be a good
higher support area.> >>MS>
Breaking above last weeks highs and more important>
>>MS> 953-955 then I am incorrect
in my assessment that last week's>
>>MS> high is "semi" important and
perhaps> >>MS> a slightly stronger
pullback than what> >>MS> we've
seen thus far coming off the>
>>MS> March higher low.>
>>> >>MS> Tend to think any
high made latter week> >>MS> will
be a lower high than last weeks>
>>MS> high as>
>>MS> last weeks low was broken
below.> >>MS> I do>
>>MS> Best,>
>>MS> Rhonda> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>MS> To unsubscribe from this group,
send an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>MS>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of >
Service.> >>> >>>
>>MS> Yahoo!
Groups Sponsor>
>>MS>
ADVERTISEMENT> >>> >>> >>>
>>> >>MS> To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>MS> Your use of
Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.>
>>> >>> >>> >>To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:>
>>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is
subject to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>>B>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>B>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>B>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
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