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Don't watch the
Fed...the "Fed's Dead".....monetary policy becomes useless and worthless with
nominal interest rates near zero....that's why that bumbling idot Greenspan has
been talking in circles lately.....he has no plan, no effective
agenda.
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size=2>
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Brad Cline
[mailto:bradcline@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 9:38
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]:
[RT] spx daily
I copied this. It is interesting if not
true. I know we had a ton of timing for last week but so far we have got a 2
day retrace with a V bottom. I find it hard to believe that the FED will let
the market fall to far with it being so close to "salvation" in the public's
eyes.
The hypothesis offered is that the
Federal Reserve artificially supports the DOW and the US currency with
permanent and temporary repurchase agreement funding. That funding is then
utilized in the open markets by the borrowers, the large trading houses of
Wall Street. Abnormal activity in the futures markets suggests that the home
for this funding are the major index futures which, when bought, support the
underlying individual stocks.The metric to watch is not the daily repo
issuances but the repo pool totals which can only be obtained by keeping at
least a 28 day running total of both the repos and their scheduled
expirations. For example, an issuance of $20 Billion means little if there is
an expiration of the same amount that day. The key is to measure the aggregate
pool totals since it is that pool that determines how much repo money can be
used to buy index futures on any given day.Today's [May 22, 2003] Fed
Repo Action The Fed did not
allow the repo total pool to fall today. They issued $15.25 Billion in new
repurchase agreements. When the $11.25 Billion in expirations are accounted
for we see that the repo pool has risen to $40 Billion. The DOW this morning
[10:40AM] is up 85 points. It’s an open question whether the Fed will ever
allow the DOW to fall so index shorters beware! It is far better to be long
gold and its shares than short the markets under this external Fed
interventional policy.The repo pool metric is gaining validity as time
passes as the DOW keeps tracking with the repo total pool number. So far the
$30 Billion level seems necessary to hold the DOW level. Above that and the
DOW rises
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-----Original
Message-----From: BobsKC
[mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 6:07
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re[3]: [RT]
spx dailyAgain, what is the bullish
sentiment? What people tell pollsters or what they actually
do? If you go by what they are doing, and if you believe in
contrarian principals, (which you obviously do), then you would be
long.BobAt 03:18 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:>Hello BobsKC,>>I am short. To me highest bullish
sentiment is a sign of near top.>>Best regards,>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>>>Friday, May 23, 2003,
3:01:13 AM, you wrote:>>B> Bullish sentiment may be high
but in fact, shorting is robust and getting>B> stronger. So
do we go by what people say or what they do?>>B>
Bob>>>>B> At 02:52 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:> >>Hello Mark,> >>> >>%Bearish
today is lowest since 1991:> >>> >><A
href="">http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp>
>>> >>". High readings suggest excessive optimism, which
typically occurs> >>when buying strength has been tapped out,
and low readings represent> >>depleted selling strength, and
tend to precede market rallies. We> >>normally view a bullish
percentage higher than 55 combined with a> >>bearish reading
lower 30% as bearish for the market."> >>>
>>> >>Best regards,> >>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> >>> >>>
>>Thursday, May 22, 2003, 9:36:17 PM, you wrote:>
>>> >>MS> You meant "higher high", right ?>
>>MS> Don't underestimate the bulls....they are wildly optimistic
right> >>MS> now.....and holding this market up.>
>>MS> Bull-Bear survey ratio now at the highest point in
years....> >>MS> -----Original
Message-----> >>MS> From: none
[mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> >>MS> Sent:
Wednesday, May 21, 2003 10:40 PM> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS> Subject: Re:
[RT] spx daily> >>> >>>
>>MS> Hello> >>>
>>MS> I am with you that there is a high
probability that we make a> >>lower high> >>MS>
tomorrow or Fri. and then collapse> >>MS>
Ben> >>MS> ----- Original Message
-----> >>MS> From: Rhonda
Guilbeaux> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS>
Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 7:37 PM>
>>MS> Subject: [RT] spx daily>
>>> >>> >>MS>
Last quarter's candle waist 882.>
>>MS> right at the 200 dma area.>
>>> >>MS> Higher support..at
the 898 area.. (near the rising 50dma)>
>>MS> Wouldn't be surprised to see
this price level tested.. and also to> >>MS> hold,
initially> >>MS> anyway.>
>>MS> if not, 867-882 looks to be a good
higher support area.> >>MS> Breaking
above last weeks highs and more important>
>>MS> 953-955 then I am incorrect in
my assessment that last week's>
>>MS> high is "semi" important and
perhaps> >>MS> a slightly stronger
pullback than what> >>MS> we've seen
thus far coming off the> >>MS> March
higher low.> >>> >>MS>
Tend to think any high made latter week>
>>MS> will be a lower high than last
weeks> >>MS> high as>
>>MS> last weeks low was broken
below.> >>MS> I do>
>>MS> Best,>
>>MS> Rhonda> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>MS> To unsubscribe from this group, send
an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>MS>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of >
Service.> >>> >>>
>>MS> Yahoo! Groups
Sponsor>
>>MS>
ADVERTISEMENT> >>> >>> >>>
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send an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
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Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.>
>>> >>> >>> >>To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:>
>>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is
subject to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>>B>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>B>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>B>
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