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Re: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily



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I think  because of the comming election  
the  fed  rescue  tram is NOT  going to let  index go 
under 8000
(maybe wishfull thinking on my part)
Ben
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Brad Cline 
  
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 10:14 
  PM
  Subject: RE: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
  
  Who 
  has held the DOW up then? All the foriegn indices have traded at 1994 or lower 
  levels. We have not traded near those levels. The fed is not dead but is 
  severely hobbled. I agree with you on the other points. Funnymentally we 
  should be much lower.
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    <FONT face="Times New Roman" 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Mark Simms 
    [mailto:mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 7:03 
    PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]: 
    [RT] spx daily
    Don't watch 
    the Fed...the "Fed's Dead".....monetary policy becomes useless and worthless 
    with nominal interest rates near zero....that's why that bumbling idot 
    Greenspan has been talking in circles lately.....he has no plan, no 
    effective agenda.
    <FONT color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      <FONT face=Tahoma 
      size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Brad Cline 
      [mailto:bradcline@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 9:38 
      PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: Re[3]: 
      [RT] spx daily
      I copied this. It is interesting if 
      not true. I know we had a ton of timing for last week but so far we have 
      got a 2 day retrace with a V bottom. I find it hard to believe that the 
      FED will let the market fall to far with it being so close to "salvation" 
      in the public's eyes.
       
      The hypothesis offered is that 
      the Federal Reserve artificially supports the DOW and the US currency with 
      permanent and temporary repurchase agreement funding. That funding is then 
      utilized in the open markets by the borrowers, the large trading houses of 
      Wall Street. Abnormal activity in the futures markets suggests that the 
      home for this funding are the major index futures which, when bought, 
      support the underlying individual stocks.The metric to watch is 
      not the daily repo issuances but the repo pool totals which can only be 
      obtained by keeping at least a 28 day running total of both the repos and 
      their scheduled expirations. For example, an issuance of $20 Billion means 
      little if there is an expiration of the same amount that day. The key is 
      to measure the aggregate pool totals since it is that pool that determines 
      how much repo money can be used to buy index futures on any given 
      day.Today's [May 22, 2003] Fed Repo Action <SPAN 
      class=830453201-23052003>The Fed did not allow the repo total pool 
      to fall today. They issued $15.25 Billion in new repurchase agreements. 
      When the $11.25 Billion in expirations are accounted for we see that the 
      repo pool has risen to $40 Billion. The DOW this morning [10:40AM] is up 
      85 points. It’s an open question whether the Fed will ever allow the DOW 
      to fall so index shorters beware! It is far better to be long gold and its 
      shares than short the markets under this external Fed interventional 
      policy.The repo pool metric is gaining validity as time passes as 
      the DOW keeps tracking with the repo total pool number. So far the $30 
      Billion level seems necessary to hold the DOW level. Above that and the 
      DOW rises 
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      >
        -----Original 
        Message-----From: BobsKC 
        [mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 6:07 
        PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re[3]: 
        [RT] spx dailyAgain, what is the bullish 
        sentiment?  What people tell pollsters or what they actually 
        do?  If you go by what they are doing, and if you believe in 
        contrarian principals, (which you obviously do), then you would be 
        long.BobAt 03:18 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you 
        wrote:>Hello BobsKC,>>I am short. To me highest 
        bullish sentiment is a sign of near top.>>Best 
        regards,>  
        Alex                            
        mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>>>Friday, May 23, 2003, 
        3:01:13 AM, you wrote:>>B> Bullish sentiment may be 
        high but in fact, shorting is robust and getting>B> 
        stronger.  So do we go by what people say or what they 
        do?>>B> Bob>>>>B> At 
        02:52 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you wrote:> >>Hello Mark,> 
        >>> >>%Bearish today is lowest since 1991:> 
        >>> >><A 
        href="">http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp> 
        >>> >>". High readings suggest excessive optimism, 
        which typically occurs> >>when buying strength has been 
        tapped out, and low readings represent> >>depleted selling 
        strength, and tend to precede market rallies. We> 
        >>normally view a bullish percentage higher than 55 combined with 
        a> >>bearish reading lower 30% as bearish for the 
        market."> >>> >>> >>Best 
        regards,> >>  
        Alex                            
        mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> >>> >>> 
        >>Thursday, May 22, 2003, 9:36:17 PM, you wrote:> 
        >>> >>MS> You meant "higher high", right ?> 
        >>MS> Don't underestimate the bulls....they are wildly 
        optimistic right> >>MS> now.....and holding this market 
        up.> >>MS> Bull-Bear survey ratio now at the highest 
        point in years....> >>MS>   -----Original 
        Message-----> >>MS>   From: none 
        [mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> >>MS>   Sent: 
        Wednesday, May 21, 2003 10:40 PM> >>MS>   To: 
        realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS>   Subject: 
        Re: [RT] spx daily> >>> >>> 
        >>MS>   Hello> >>> 
        >>MS>   I am with you  that  there is a 
        high probability that we make a> >>lower high> 
        >>MS> tomorrow or Fri. and then  collapse> 
        >>MS>   Ben> 
        >>MS>     ----- Original Message 
        -----> >>MS>     From: Rhonda 
        Guilbeaux> >>MS>     To: 
        realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> 
        >>MS>     Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 
        7:37 PM> >>MS>     Subject: [RT] spx 
        daily> >>> >>> 
        >>MS>     Last quarter's candle waist 
        882.> >>MS>     right at the 200 dma 
        area.> >>> >>MS>     
        Higher support..at the 898 area.. (near the rising 50dma)> 
        >>MS>     Wouldn't  be surprised to 
        see this price level tested.. and also to> >>MS> hold, 
        initially> >>MS>     anyway.> 
        >>MS>     if not, 867-882 looks to be a 
        good higher support area.> >>MS>     
        Breaking above last weeks highs and more important> 
        >>MS>     953-955  then I am incorrect 
        in my assessment  that last week's> 
        >>MS>     high is "semi" important and 
        perhaps> >>MS>     a slightly 
        stronger pullback than what> 
        >>MS>     we've seen thus far coming off 
        the> >>MS>     March higher 
        low.> >>> >>MS>     
        Tend to think any high made latter week> 
        >>MS>     will be a lower high than last 
        weeks> >>MS>     high as> 
        >>MS>     last weeks low was broken 
        below.> >>MS>     I do> 
        >>MS>     Best,> 
        >>MS>     Rhonda> >>> 
        >>> >>> >>> >>> 
        >>> >>> >>> >>> 
        >>MS>     To unsubscribe from this group, 
        send an email to:> >>MS>     
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