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I copied this. It is interesting if not
true. I know we had a ton of timing for last week but so far we have got a 2 day
retrace with a V bottom. I find it hard to believe that the FED will let the
market fall to far with it being so close to "salvation" in the public's
eyes.
The hypothesis offered is that the
Federal Reserve artificially supports the DOW and the US currency with permanent
and temporary repurchase agreement funding. That funding is then utilized in the
open markets by the borrowers, the large trading houses of Wall Street. Abnormal
activity in the futures markets suggests that the home for this funding are the
major index futures which, when bought, support the underlying individual
stocks.The metric to watch is not the daily repo issuances but the repo
pool totals which can only be obtained by keeping at least a 28 day running
total of both the repos and their scheduled expirations. For example, an
issuance of $20 Billion means little if there is an expiration of the same
amount that day. The key is to measure the aggregate pool totals since it is
that pool that determines how much repo money can be used to buy index futures
on any given day.Today's [May 22, 2003] Fed Repo
Action The Fed did not allow
the repo total pool to fall today. They issued $15.25 Billion in new repurchase
agreements. When the $11.25 Billion in expirations are accounted for we see that
the repo pool has risen to $40 Billion. The DOW this morning [10:40AM] is up 85
points. It’s an open question whether the Fed will ever allow the DOW to fall so
index shorters beware! It is far better to be long gold and its shares than
short the markets under this external Fed interventional policy.The repo
pool metric is gaining validity as time passes as the DOW keeps tracking with
the repo total pool number. So far the $30 Billion level seems necessary to hold
the DOW level. Above that and the DOW rises
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
-----Original
Message-----From: BobsKC
[mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 6:07
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re[3]: [RT]
spx dailyAgain, what is the bullish sentiment?
What people tell pollsters or what they actually do? If you go by
what they are doing, and if you believe in contrarian principals, (which
you obviously do), then you would be long.BobAt 03:18 AM
5/23/2003 +0400, you wrote:>Hello BobsKC,>>I am short. To
me highest bullish sentiment is a sign of near top.>>Best
regards,>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx>>>Friday, May 23, 2003, 3:01:13
AM, you wrote:>>B> Bullish sentiment may be high but in fact,
shorting is robust and getting>B> stronger. So do we go by
what people say or what they do?>>B>
Bob>>>>B> At 02:52 AM 5/23/2003 +0400, you
wrote:> >>Hello Mark,> >>> >>%Bearish
today is lowest since 1991:> >>> >><A
href="">http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/inv_intel.asp>
>>> >>". High readings suggest excessive optimism, which
typically occurs> >>when buying strength has been tapped out, and
low readings represent> >>depleted selling strength, and tend to
precede market rallies. We> >>normally view a bullish percentage
higher than 55 combined with a> >>bearish reading lower 30% as
bearish for the market."> >>> >>>
>>Best regards,> >>
Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx> >>> >>>
>>Thursday, May 22, 2003, 9:36:17 PM, you wrote:>
>>> >>MS> You meant "higher high", right ?>
>>MS> Don't underestimate the bulls....they are wildly optimistic
right> >>MS> now.....and holding this market up.>
>>MS> Bull-Bear survey ratio now at the highest point in
years....> >>MS> -----Original
Message-----> >>MS> From: none
[mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> >>MS> Sent:
Wednesday, May 21, 2003 10:40 PM> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS> Subject: Re:
[RT] spx daily> >>> >>>
>>MS> Hello> >>>
>>MS> I am with you that there is a high
probability that we make a> >>lower high> >>MS>
tomorrow or Fri. and then collapse> >>MS>
Ben> >>MS> ----- Original Message
-----> >>MS> From: Rhonda
Guilbeaux> >>MS> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>MS>
Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 7:37 PM>
>>MS> Subject: [RT] spx daily>
>>> >>> >>MS> Last
quarter's candle waist 882.> >>MS>
right at the 200 dma area.> >>>
>>MS> Higher support..at the 898 area.. (near
the rising 50dma)> >>MS>
Wouldn't be surprised to see this price level tested.. and also
to> >>MS> hold, initially>
>>MS> anyway.>
>>MS> if not, 867-882 looks to be a good
higher support area.> >>MS> Breaking
above last weeks highs and more important>
>>MS> 953-955 then I am incorrect in my
assessment that last week's>
>>MS> high is "semi" important and
perhaps> >>MS> a slightly stronger
pullback than what> >>MS> we've seen
thus far coming off the> >>MS> March
higher low.> >>> >>MS>
Tend to think any high made latter week>
>>MS> will be a lower high than last
weeks> >>MS> high as>
>>MS> last weeks low was broken
below.> >>MS> I do>
>>MS> Best,>
>>MS> Rhonda> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>> >>> >>> >>>
>>MS> To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
>>> >>> >>MS> Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of >
Service.> >>> >>>
>>MS> Yahoo! Groups
Sponsor>
>>MS>
ADVERTISEMENT> >>> >>> >>>
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send an email to:> >>MS>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >>>
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Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.>
>>> >>> >>> >>To unsubscribe from
this group, send an email to:>
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>>> >>> >>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject
to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>>B>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>B>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>B>
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