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Adrian,
How do you define a bear market?
Thanks,Norman
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian Pitt
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 5:52
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or
Start of New Trend
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Clyde,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I'm
sorry Clyde, I made an incorrect assumption that I was dealing with a group of
traders here that
were
above average in intelligence and would know to apply apples and apples.
My point in saying your
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>analysis was flawed was reference to the obvious fact that the current
market environment has NOTHING
to
do with the environment that existed for the past 20 odd years. If you
wish to compare like with like
you
need to compare REAL bear markets with the current activity. The US has
had NO bear markets in
the
past 20 years. The only obvious ones are 1929-33 and the 70's. All of
this seems obvious to me.
Its
great to have the ability to take some simple notion and crunch it through
1000's of examples and tests
but
ultimately its like using a sledgehammer to put a nail in the wall.
Extremely ineffective and will lead
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>everyone to wrong conclusions. There is only ONE proper way and it
involves an understanding and
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>appreciation of markets, people, economics and how it all
interacts. Markets AREN'T simple, they are
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>incredibly complex, and any attempt to apply one dimensional analysis
across a whole raft of environments
will
be futile. Its like saying the best moving average will be the least
square fit line over the past 100 years!!
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
By
eliminating al that is incorrect Clyde, it brings everyone one step closer to
the truth. Wasn't their a famous
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>genius who once said it you eliminate the impossible, you are left with
whats possible?
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
So
my suggestion, even though it went over your head, is to once again suggest
that you analyse where 6%
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>updays occurred in GENUINE sustained bear trends. i.e 1929-33,
1970-74 and the NASDAQ 2000-current.
I'm
sure your readers would be more informed with whatever is discovered. I
haven't done the work, but my
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>experience would suggest there were quite a few of them, and ALL except
the very last one had no bullish
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>implications whatsoever.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Regards,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian Pitt
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Clyde Lee
[mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Saturday, 27 July 2002 6:02
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Re:
One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
Adrian,
Why is it that everything anyone does in the
way of an analysis is
"flawed" in your
mind (and it really has to be just in YOUR mind).
I doubt seriously that whatever happened in
1929-1933 has anything
to do with what goes on these days and in that
respect your logic
is more "flawed" than the study that I
provided. My analysis covered
a considerably longer period than the 4 years
you reference and you
would throw out the analysis totally because of
the behavior over a
single 4 year period. Somewhere analytic
does not appear to be
analytical any more.
Instead of just saying something is "flawed"
why do you not detail
explicitly just how and why it is
flawed and show specific information
which others can consider to see if they would
agree with your
concept of "flawedness" instead of some
broad brush statement
without any support ! ! ! !
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, July 26, 2002 5:05
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: One Day Rally
or Start of New Trend
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Clyde,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Your research is flawed. All 3 charts are bull market phases
in the market. Show me your analysis of the Dow in 1929-33 and lets
see what happened after 6% updays :-)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
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<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Clyde Lee
[mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 25 July 2002
10:50 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
Attached are 3 charts covering time periods
in which significant up
moves began.
The red bars are days in which the range of
the high for that day to
the lower low of that or the prior day
exceed 6 percent.
Now you have a basis for deciding whether
there is a likelihood of
this being more than a one day
rally.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
<A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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