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Hello Alex,
you probably saw this before but Yardeni provides the interest rate
adjusted PE's and respective fair-value for SP500 at his website
http://205.232.165.149/public/gmb.pdf
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
--
Saturday, July 27, 2002, 12:37:05 PM, you wrote:
AB> Hello Clyde,
AB> source for the S&P-500 earnings monthly data:
AB> http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
AB> I have no historical data for bond yields. would be interested too to
AB> look at PE normalized against return for safe money.
AB> Best regards,
AB> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
AB> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 7:09:51 PM, you wrote:
CL>> I wonder what this would look like if it were divided into the
CL>> bond yield or something of that order to normalize it against
CL>> "expected return" for "safe money".
CL>> As low as yields are now I would not be surprised if a high PE
CL>> ratio is not justified as a competitive return basis.
CL>> Clyde
CL>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
CL>> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
CL>> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
CL>> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
CL>> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
CL>> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
CL>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
CL>> ----- Original Message -----
CL>> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
CL>> To: "Jim Johnson" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
CL>> Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:21 AM
CL>> Subject: Re[3]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
>>> Hello Jim,
>>>
>>> on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only bear market
>>> rallies.
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>>>
>>>
>>> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
>>>
>>> JJ> Hello Adrian and RT group,
>>>
>>> JJ> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion so
>>> JJ> I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
>>> JJ> CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
>>> JJ> signals for bear market endings.
>>>
>>> JJ> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
>>> JJ> historical data to support their case--
>>>
>>> JJ> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a period
>>> JJ> of time.
>>>
>>> JJ> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase in
>>> JJ> DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in 5-10
>>> JJ> day period I recall.
>>>
>>> JJ> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number of
>>> JJ> breadth signals similar to the those above.
>>>
>>> JJ> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
>>> JJ> turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
>>>
>>> JJ> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals and
>>> JJ> a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
>>>
>>> JJ> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.
>>> JJ> In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
>>> JJ> still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull market
>>> JJ> starting from there.
>>>
>>> JJ> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.
>>> JJ> The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
>>> JJ> Right now its very high.
>>>
>>> JJ> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose of
>>> JJ> fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
>>> JJ> that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia leading
>>> JJ> the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
>>> JJ> cycle says the market will go up forever.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> JJ> Best regards,
>>> JJ> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>
>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>>> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>>>
>>>
CL>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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AB> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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