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Hello Clyde,
source for the S&P-500 earnings monthly data:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
I have no historical data for bond yields. would be interested too to
look at PE normalized against return for safe money.
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Saturday, July 27, 2002, 7:09:51 PM, you wrote:
CL> I wonder what this would look like if it were divided into the
CL> bond yield or something of that order to normalize it against
CL> "expected return" for "safe money".
CL> As low as yields are now I would not be surprised if a high PE
CL> ratio is not justified as a competitive return basis.
CL> Clyde
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CL> ----- Original Message -----
CL> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
CL> To: "Jim Johnson" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
CL> Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:21 AM
CL> Subject: Re[3]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
>> Hello Jim,
>>
>> on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only bear market
>> rallies.
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>>
>>
>> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
>>
>> JJ> Hello Adrian and RT group,
>>
>> JJ> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion so
>> JJ> I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
>> JJ> CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
>> JJ> signals for bear market endings.
>>
>> JJ> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
>> JJ> historical data to support their case--
>>
>> JJ> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a period
>> JJ> of time.
>>
>> JJ> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase in
>> JJ> DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in 5-10
>> JJ> day period I recall.
>>
>> JJ> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number of
>> JJ> breadth signals similar to the those above.
>>
>> JJ> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
>> JJ> turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
>>
>> JJ> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals and
>> JJ> a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
>>
>> JJ> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.
>> JJ> In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
>> JJ> still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull market
>> JJ> starting from there.
>>
>> JJ> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.
>> JJ> The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
>> JJ> Right now its very high.
>>
>> JJ> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose of
>> JJ> fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
>> JJ> that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia leading
>> JJ> the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
>> JJ> cycle says the market will go up forever.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> JJ> Best regards,
>> JJ> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>
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>>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
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