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I wonder what this would look like if it were divided into the
bond yield or something of that order to normalize it against
"expected return" for "safe money".
As low as yields are now I would not be surprised if a high PE
ratio is not justified as a competitive return basis.
Clyde
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
To: "Jim Johnson" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:21 AM
Subject: Re[3]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
> Hello Jim,
>
> on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only bear market
> rallies.
>
> Best regards,
> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>
>
> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
>
> JJ> Hello Adrian and RT group,
>
> JJ> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion so
> JJ> I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
> JJ> CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
> JJ> signals for bear market endings.
>
> JJ> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
> JJ> historical data to support their case--
>
> JJ> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a period
> JJ> of time.
>
> JJ> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase in
> JJ> DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in 5-10
> JJ> day period I recall.
>
> JJ> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number of
> JJ> breadth signals similar to the those above.
>
> JJ> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
> JJ> turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
>
> JJ> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals and
> JJ> a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
>
> JJ> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.
> JJ> In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
> JJ> still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull market
> JJ> starting from there.
>
> JJ> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.
> JJ> The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
> JJ> Right now its very high.
>
> JJ> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose of
> JJ> fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
> JJ> that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia leading
> JJ> the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
> JJ> cycle says the market will go up forever.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> JJ> Best regards,
> JJ> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
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