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Hello Alex,
thanks for the chart. can you tell me the source?
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
--
Saturday, July 27, 2002, 10:21:46 AM, you wrote:
AB> Hello Jim,
AB> on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only bear market
AB> rallies.
AB> Best regards,
AB> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
AB> Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
JJ>> Hello Adrian and RT group,
JJ>> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion so
JJ>> I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
JJ>> CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
JJ>> signals for bear market endings.
JJ>> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
JJ>> historical data to support their case--
JJ>> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a period
JJ>> of time.
JJ>> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase in
JJ>> DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in 5-10
JJ>> day period I recall.
JJ>> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number of
JJ>> breadth signals similar to the those above.
JJ>> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
JJ>> turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
JJ>> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals and
JJ>> a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
JJ>> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.
JJ>> In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
JJ>> still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull market
JJ>> starting from there.
JJ>> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.
JJ>> The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
JJ>> Right now its very high.
JJ>> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose of
JJ>> fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
JJ>> that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia leading
JJ>> the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
JJ>> cycle says the market will go up forever.
JJ>> Best regards,
JJ>> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
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