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Clyde,
This is probably what your looking for. Unfortunately, its full of
holes
as well :-) Most economic market strategists have been using this chart
as a reason to justify buying this market and saying its good value.
Their
still buying and progressively losing more money. Unfortunately they
aren't
capable of seeing more than one dimension deep...even though they think
their
pretty smart looking back 20 years!!
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, 28 July 2002 1:10 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Re[3]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
>
>
> I wonder what this would look like if it were divided into
> the bond yield or something of that order to normalize it
> against "expected return" for "safe money".
>
> As low as yields are now I would not be surprised if a high
> PE ratio is not justified as a competitive return basis.
>
> Clyde
>
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
> To: "Jim Johnson" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:21 AM
> Subject: Re[3]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
>
>
> > Hello Jim,
> >
> > on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only
> bear market
> > rallies.
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
> >
> >
> > Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > JJ> Hello Adrian and RT group,
> >
> > JJ> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this
> discussion
> > JJ> so I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know
> > JJ> what CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I
> have a comment
> > JJ> about signals for bear market endings.
> >
> > JJ> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
> > JJ> historical data to support their case--
> >
> > JJ> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a
> > JJ> period of time.
> >
> > JJ> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1%
> price increase
> > JJ> in DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two
> of these
> > JJ> in 5-10 day period I recall.
> >
> > JJ> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a
> > JJ> number of breadth signals similar to the those above.
> >
> > JJ> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide
> > JJ> has turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after
> > JJ> its in.
> >
> > JJ> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for
> those signals
> > JJ> and a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
> >
> > JJ> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks
> > JJ> yet. In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and
> mine p/e's
> > JJ> are still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to
> see a bull
> > JJ> market starting from there.
> >
> > JJ> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer
> > JJ> debt. The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt
> > JJ> very low. Right now its very high.
> >
> > JJ> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings
> for purpose
> > JJ> of fooling the maximum number of people) will give a
> bear market
> > JJ> rally that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J
> > JJ> Batapaglia leading the charge) and puke 'em out just when the
> > JJ> seasonals and election cycle says the market will go up forever.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > JJ> Best regards,
> > JJ> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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