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Great Points Jim. There are tradeable
rallies in Bear Markets if you are
a trader. September and
April 2001 rallies were surely not the start of a
Bull market
as we all know but were
an intermediate Trend change and Tradable.
The pattern of lower highs
and lower lows for over
the past 2 years; I don't expect this
pattern to change anytime soon because of many things you mentioned
and what longer term
charts show.
I am on the alert for a tradeable low, however.
Last weeks low isn't confirmed. We haven't
broken the pattern of breaking the prior weeks lows week after week. Next
week we'll see if this past weeks low holds. I believe the possibility is
there for it to in the Dow and S&P. But, until it happens it's only a
"possbility".
Also need to take out
last weeks highs this week
going forward. If it doesn't
happen, then low odds
for an IT Trend Change. If
it does, then possible we
could have made a tradeable
IT low.
Rhonda
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jim Johnson
To: <A title=apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Adrian Pitt
Cc: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 9:15
AM
Subject: Re[2]: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or
Start of New Trend
Hello Adrian and RT group,A yahoo glitch caused me
to miss the front end of this discussion soI'm using Adrian's last post as
my jump point. I don't know whatCLyde's models are suggesting these
days but I have a comment aboutsignals for bear market
endings.Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and
providedhistorical data to support their case--Marty Zwieg looks
for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a periodof
time.William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase
inDJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in
5-10day period I recall.Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge,
Tradingmarkets.com) has a number ofbreadth signals similar to the those
above.Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide
hasturned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its
in.I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals
anda meaningful retest forming a higher low.this is July and the
seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.In addition, by some lights
(Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's arestill way too high-- ~35 for SP500.
Hard for me to see a bull marketstarting from there.ONe more
thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.The bull moves
he documents all start with consumer debt very low.Right now its very
high.My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for
purpose offooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market
rallythat is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia
leadingthe charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and
electioncycle says the market will go up
forever.Best regards,Jim
Johnson
mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx-- Saturday, July 27, 2002, 5:52:01 AM,
you wrote:AP> Clyde,AP> I'm sorry Clyde, I made an
incorrect assumption that I was dealing withAP> a group of traders here
thatAP> were above average in intelligence and would know to apply
apples andAP> apples. My point in saying yourAP> analysis
was flawed was reference to the obvious fact that the currentAP> market
environment has NOTHINGAP> to do with the environment that existed for
the past 20 odd years. IfAP> you wish to compare like with
likeAP> you need to compare REAL bear markets with the current
activity. The USAP> has had NO bear markets inAP> the past
20 years. The only obvious ones are 1929-33 and the 70's. AllAP>
of this seems obvious to me.AP> Its great to have the ability to take
some simple notion and crunch itAP> through 1000's of examples and
testsAP> but ultimately its like using a sledgehammer to put a nail in
the wall.AP> Extremely ineffective and will leadAP> everyone to
wrong conclusions. There is only ONE proper way and itAP> involves an
understanding and AP> appreciation of markets, people, economics and
how it all interacts.AP> Markets AREN'T simple, they are AP>
incredibly complex, and any attempt to apply one dimensional
analysisAP> across a whole raft of environmentsAP> will be
futile. Its like saying the best moving average will be theAP>
least square fit line over the past 100 years!!AP> By eliminating
al that is incorrect Clyde, it brings everyone one stepAP> closer to
the truth. Wasn't their a famousAP> genius who once said it you
eliminate the impossible, you are left withAP> whats
possible?AP> So my suggestion, even though it went over your head,
is to once againAP> suggest that you analyse where 6%AP> updays
occurred in GENUINE sustained bear trends. i.e 1929-33,
1970-74AP> and the NASDAQ 2000-current.AP> I'm sure your readers
would be more informed with whatever isAP> discovered. I haven't
done the work, but myAP> experience would suggest there were quite a
few of them, and ALL exceptAP> the very last one had no
bullishAP> implications whatsoever.AP> Regards,AP>
Adrian PittAP> -----Original Message-----AP> From: Clyde Lee
[mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] AP> Sent: Saturday, 27 July 2002 6:02
AMAP> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxAP> Subject: Re: [RT] Re:
One Day Rally or Start of New TrendAP> Adrian,AP>
Why is it that everything anyone does in the way of an analysis is AP>
"flawed" in your mind (and it really has to be just in YOUR
mind).AP> I doubt seriously that whatever happened in 1929-1933 has
anythingAP> to do with what goes on these days and in that respect your
logicAP> is more "flawed" than the study that I provided. My
analysis coveredAP> a considerably longer period than the 4 years you
reference and youAP> would throw out the analysis totally because of
the behavior over aAP> single 4 year period. Somewhere analytic
does not appear to beAP> analytical any more.AP> Instead of
just saying something is "flawed" why do you not detailAP> explicitly
just how and why it is flawed and show specific informationAP> which
others can consider to see if they would agree with yourAP> concept of
"flawedness" instead of some broad brush statement AP> without any
support ! ! ! ! AP> ClydeAP> - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -AP> Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)AP> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx AP> 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Office: (713)
783-9540AP> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092AP> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.comAP> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -AP> ----- Original Message -----
AP> From: Adrian <mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Pitt
AP> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx AP> Sent: Friday, July 26,
2002 5:05 AMAP> Subject: RE: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New
TrendAP> Clyde,AP> Your research is flawed. All 3
charts are bull market phases in theAP> market. Show me your
analysis of the Dow in 1929-33 and lets see whatAP> happened after 6%
updays :-)AP> AdrianAP> -----Original
Message-----AP> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] AP>
Sent: Thursday, 25 July 2002 10:50 PMAP> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxAP> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or
Start of New TrendAP> Attached are 3 charts covering time
periods in which significant upAP> moves began.AP> The red
bars are days in which the range of the high for that day toAP> the
lower low of that or the prior day exceed 6 percent.AP> Now you
have a basis for deciding whether there is a likelihood ofAP> this
being more than a one day rally.AP> ClydeAP> - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -AP> Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)AP> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx AP> 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Office: (713)
783-9540AP> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092AP> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.comAP> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -AP> To unsubscribe from
this group, send an email to:AP>
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