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Hello Jim,
on PE see attached. No bull matket until PE<=10. Only bear market
rallies.
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Saturday, July 27, 2002, 6:15:12 PM, you wrote:
JJ> Hello Adrian and RT group,
JJ> A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion so
JJ> I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
JJ> CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
JJ> signals for bear market endings.
JJ> Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
JJ> historical data to support their case--
JJ> Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a period
JJ> of time.
JJ> William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase in
JJ> DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in 5-10
JJ> day period I recall.
JJ> Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number of
JJ> breadth signals similar to the those above.
JJ> Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
JJ> turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
JJ> I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals and
JJ> a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
JJ> this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.
JJ> In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
JJ> still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull market
JJ> starting from there.
JJ> ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.
JJ> The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
JJ> Right now its very high.
JJ> My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose of
JJ> fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
JJ> that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia leading
JJ> the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
JJ> cycle says the market will go up forever.
JJ> Best regards,
JJ> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
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