|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello Adrian and RT group,
A yahoo glitch caused me to miss the front end of this discussion so
I'm using Adrian's last post as my jump point. I don't know what
CLyde's models are suggesting these days but I have a comment about
signals for bear market endings.
Three writers (I know of) have commented on this and provided
historical data to support their case--
Marty Zwieg looks for 9 to 1 up volume days, more than one in a period
of time.
William O'Neill (Investors Bus Daily) looks for 1% price increase in
DJI accompanied by significant volume increase. Two of these in 5-10
day period I recall.
Mark Boucher (The Hedge Fund Edge, Tradingmarkets.com) has a number of
breadth signals similar to the those above.
Also, all three wait for these signals before deciding the tide has
turned. They don't predict the bottom but confirm it after its in.
I'd add that with my long term money, I'll wait for those signals and
a meaningful retest forming a higher low.
this is July and the seasonals aren't favorable for a few weeks yet.
In addition, by some lights (Decisionpoint.com)and mine p/e's are
still way too high-- ~35 for SP500. Hard for me to see a bull market
starting from there.
ONe more thing, Zwieg also presents compelling data on consumer debt.
The bull moves he documents all start with consumer debt very low.
Right now its very high.
My guess is that the market (designed by higher beings for purpose of
fooling the maximum number of people) will give a bear market rally
that is strong enug to suck 'em in (A J Cohen and J Batapaglia leading
the charge) and puke 'em out just when the seasonals and election
cycle says the market will go up forever.
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
--
Saturday, July 27, 2002, 5:52:01 AM, you wrote:
AP> Clyde,
AP> I'm sorry Clyde, I made an incorrect assumption that I was dealing with
AP> a group of traders here that
AP> were above average in intelligence and would know to apply apples and
AP> apples. My point in saying your
AP> analysis was flawed was reference to the obvious fact that the current
AP> market environment has NOTHING
AP> to do with the environment that existed for the past 20 odd years. If
AP> you wish to compare like with like
AP> you need to compare REAL bear markets with the current activity. The US
AP> has had NO bear markets in
AP> the past 20 years. The only obvious ones are 1929-33 and the 70's. All
AP> of this seems obvious to me.
AP> Its great to have the ability to take some simple notion and crunch it
AP> through 1000's of examples and tests
AP> but ultimately its like using a sledgehammer to put a nail in the wall.
AP> Extremely ineffective and will lead
AP> everyone to wrong conclusions. There is only ONE proper way and it
AP> involves an understanding and
AP> appreciation of markets, people, economics and how it all interacts.
AP> Markets AREN'T simple, they are
AP> incredibly complex, and any attempt to apply one dimensional analysis
AP> across a whole raft of environments
AP> will be futile. Its like saying the best moving average will be the
AP> least square fit line over the past 100 years!!
AP> By eliminating al that is incorrect Clyde, it brings everyone one step
AP> closer to the truth. Wasn't their a famous
AP> genius who once said it you eliminate the impossible, you are left with
AP> whats possible?
AP> So my suggestion, even though it went over your head, is to once again
AP> suggest that you analyse where 6%
AP> updays occurred in GENUINE sustained bear trends. i.e 1929-33, 1970-74
AP> and the NASDAQ 2000-current.
AP> I'm sure your readers would be more informed with whatever is
AP> discovered. I haven't done the work, but my
AP> experience would suggest there were quite a few of them, and ALL except
AP> the very last one had no bullish
AP> implications whatsoever.
AP> Regards,
AP> Adrian Pitt
AP> -----Original Message-----
AP> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
AP> Sent: Saturday, 27 July 2002 6:02 AM
AP> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
AP> Adrian,
AP> Why is it that everything anyone does in the way of an analysis is
AP> "flawed" in your mind (and it really has to be just in YOUR mind).
AP> I doubt seriously that whatever happened in 1929-1933 has anything
AP> to do with what goes on these days and in that respect your logic
AP> is more "flawed" than the study that I provided. My analysis covered
AP> a considerably longer period than the 4 years you reference and you
AP> would throw out the analysis totally because of the behavior over a
AP> single 4 year period. Somewhere analytic does not appear to be
AP> analytical any more.
AP> Instead of just saying something is "flawed" why do you not detail
AP> explicitly just how and why it is flawed and show specific information
AP> which others can consider to see if they would agree with your
AP> concept of "flawedness" instead of some broad brush statement
AP> without any support ! ! ! !
AP> Clyde
AP> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
AP> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
AP> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
AP> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
AP> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
AP> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
AP> ----- Original Message -----
AP> From: Adrian <mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Pitt
AP> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> Sent: Friday, July 26, 2002 5:05 AM
AP> Subject: RE: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
AP> Clyde,
AP> Your research is flawed. All 3 charts are bull market phases in the
AP> market. Show me your analysis of the Dow in 1929-33 and lets see what
AP> happened after 6% updays :-)
AP> Adrian
AP> -----Original Message-----
AP> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
AP> Sent: Thursday, 25 July 2002 10:50 PM
AP> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: One Day Rally or Start of New Trend
AP> Attached are 3 charts covering time periods in which significant up
AP> moves began.
AP> The red bars are days in which the range of the high for that day to
AP> the lower low of that or the prior day exceed 6 percent.
AP> Now you have a basis for deciding whether there is a likelihood of
AP> this being more than a one day rally.
AP> Clyde
AP> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
AP> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
AP> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
AP> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
AP> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
AP> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
AP> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
AP> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
AP> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
AP> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
AP> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
AP> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
AP> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
AP> ADVERTISEMENT
AP> <http://rd.yahoo.com/M=228862.2128520.3581629.1829184/D=egroupweb/S=1705
AP> 001779:HM/A=1155069/R=0/*http://adfarm.mediaplex.com/ad/ck/990-1736-1039
-302>>
AP> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
AP> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AP> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
AP> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Will You Find True Love?
Will You Meet the One?
Free Love Reading by phone!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/7dY7FD/R_ZEAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|